AI bubble across the entire infrastructure stack

The off-balance sheet AI Trade

Classic

👀

History was made: 406 S&P 500 members rose on Thursday even as the index fell 0.3%. In Bloomberg’s advance-decline data going back to 1996, the index has closed higher on all 987 previous sessions with at least 400 gainers, with a median gain of 1.3%.

Multiple Normalization

The AI/capex linked economy: AI capex share of real GDP growth is approaching 50% @SaraEisen

"Starting yields have historically been a powerful predictor of future fixed income returns. Since 1976, starting yields have explained 89% of the variation in subsequent five-year annualized returns for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate"

-JPMorgan AM

The most hawkish remark by Warsh today: "The dominant means in which this policy is going to be put into practice is we are tightening financial conditions. They've tightened a bit since we met last time. That isn't something that we're uncomfortable with." FCI vs. LLM score g we're uncomfortable with..."

Literal fucking lol

Capexpectations

wrote about AI AS THE INFINITE WORK MACHINE, creating a world where we're all just constantly deploying agents to fight against everyone else's agents, running constantly to end up in the same place:

bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

The semiconductor sector is trading at record-low forward P/E levels.

Source: Goldman Sachs via @WallStJesus

AI infrastructure is increasingly being built on credit. Long-term debt and off-balance-sheet vehicles are financing the build-out but may also concentrate risks among a small number of firms and investors.
Read more: bit.ly/4sqAqWA
#BISBulletin

Full circle circular

This is Brasillllllllll part 2

The odds of October: based on Fed speak chances of a hike are still 40%

This is Brasillllllllll (!)

French Fed risk

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)

One of my go to movies that always cheers me up.