What happens to bank margins when their customers start using AI agents?
1
1
11
Outside my hotel in Miami
1
0
12
Replying to @Baddiel
The knights in front of me put in a shift too!
0
0
23
What a team
0
0
14
There’ll be no rowing in New York
1
0
11
Fortress may have accumulated $5.5bn of debt to get it up and running, but the Brightline rail service is great! On my way to Miami 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
3
0
14
Good seeing @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway live in London
0
0
8
Another example of the Canadian Paradox cc/ @dsquareddigest
1
0
6
Founder of alternative asset firm Blue Owl reckons fears of ruptures in private credit are "like the Mandela effect of finance... just common population collective misimpression of what's going on." To explore the issue further, I'm hosting a webinar with Sayonton Roy of Citigroup.
2
1
6
Launch of ABX index in Jan 06 created a coordination point for subprime unwind. Will H100 rental index (launched in May 2025) fulfil same role for compute?

“Goal is to turn GPUs into a benchmarked asset class that can be traded like any other financial instrument” says founder.
2
1
12
On an earnings call in 2023, CEO of Soul Patts in Australia commented on the likeness between his firm and one in Omaha. "Not to copy what Berkshire Hathaway has done, but I think we just kind of ended up in the same place." Anyway, they've just done a deal.
2
0
1
Wrapped up the FPL season by topping the FinTwit Premier League. Thanks to all the great managers for the battle. Already thinking about next season…
2
0
8
SoftBank is a bank after all. This week's Net Interest looks at how Masa funds his bets.
1
0
8
Private vs Public. Fascinating discussion between Chris Hohn and Christian Sinding of EQT. youtu.be/WvtRnhzD7p0?si…
2
1
6
Vision Fund 2 looks good
2
2
7
Pleasure to join @scarletfu on Bloomberg TV to discuss endowments liquidating their PE positions
1
3
18
Excellent representation of thesis drift from @EpsilonTheory
1
15
88
Insane returns for a lad from Preston
0
0
25
The US already has the best SWF. Europeans are still underwater.
2
4
50
The Trump Trade

"My Administration would have also sold the government’s common stock in these companies at a huge profit and fully privatized the companies."
0
4
14
Is that a whale on his shirt?
3
0
16
Good spot. Updated my long term chart (2023 is ex. Atlantic)
1
0
2
Look what arrived early ⁦@Samfr⁩
0
0
14
I just put a piece out on my Substack about UK housing. But it appears that a Jew cannot write about UK housing because it serves to "hide the challenges you are globally creating". 🤷🏻‍♂️
3
1
15
Yep, these are his numbers:
2
0
2
Can’t wait to get stuck into this. If it’s anything like Lying for Money, we’re in for a treat. @dsquareddigest
0
2
26
Citigroup's Trading Game, as told by @garyseconomics, is a much better game than Jane Street's coin-flipping games.
0
1
14
Replying to @SMTuffy
Another good one:
0
0
4
25 years on, the story of a failed hedge fund lives on. netinterest.co/p/ltcm-25-year…
2
8
69
Was it crossed out or underlined? Jesse Armstrong reveals all at #FTWeekendFestival
0
0
17
Replying to @MarcRuby
Matt Levine @matt_levine characteristically good on the conflicts faced by many fund structures
1
0
11
A compensation scheme masquerading as a public company
4
6
100
25 years ago today, LTCM dropped $550m on a single day. The firm might have been able to withstand its loss but then 12 days later, they sent out a fax telling everyone about their troubles. The rest is history...
4
8
70
Late to this but what a read!
9
3
115
From three corners of the world, the race is on to fill your inbox with finance content on a Friday afternoon
3
7
72
JPMorgan making the point that they have sufficient capital today to absorb all US bank loan losses during the global financial crisis.
13
24
227
Replying to @MarcRuby
But there is a $4bn top-up to litigation reserves.

All nicely offset by $17bn of AT1 writedowns and Credit Suisse comp adjustments.
1
0
26
...although they are $3bn underwater 🙈
0
0
1
Luckily the investment securities are available-for-sale
1
1
2
First Republic uninsured depositors are going to be OK, but there were $12bn of them at the end still playing chicken 🤷🏻‍♂️
3
6
41
Turns out the tech bank wasn't that good at tech federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg…
2
1
14
The Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco: Banker of champions.
1
6
40
"Given our record results, I chose the right time to semi-retire, but given industry challenges that arose during the quarter, just like Lloyd Bridges in the movie Airplane, I picked the wrong quarter to quit sniffing glue." — Wintrust Financial CEO on earnings call on Friday.
0
0
16
Zions Bank attempting to reframe the narrative: "Some are focusing only on the marks on the asset side of the balance sheet, resulting in a Picasso-like portrait view of equity."
5
2
20
EU is looking to reform deposit protection. No mention of VCs but ...
4
5
22
Tiring work
NEW: An internal model at Silicon Valley Bank warned that higher interest rates could have a crushing impact on its finances. So executives changed it: washingtonpost.com/business/2023/… with @tcfrankel @josephmenn
2
4
60
One of these countries stands out
86
115
666
Proud to be one of Substack's 17k paid writers. Onwards and upwards, @substack!
6
4
100
If you’d bought Sberbank stock the day before the Ukraine invasion, you’d now be in the money (even if it is in a side pocket). US & European banks, not so much. Investing is hard!
17
21
146
Banks are unusual in that they are always having to disclose new information to cater to market concerns. EM debt exposures, leveraged loan exposures, etc etc. Now it's deposit mix. This is the latest, from Deutsche Bank.
2
9
63
Replying to @izakaminska
Not sure the numbers are big enough?
1
0
0
Colm Kelleher is the new President of Switzerland
1
2
36
CS would disagree! "We have about 11 compliance officers for CHF 100 million of revenue, which is pretty much in line with how every other competitor is addressing these or the good competitors are addressing these." (Jun 2022)
1
0
1
Takes investment research to a whole new level youtube.com/watch?v=StjWk3…
1
4
28
Replying to @John_Hempton
Fifteen years later, they’re still fighting over Fannie and Freddie prefs.
2
0
5
Replying to @EpsilonTheory
Still discounting a ~7% probability that gets resolved.
1
0
5
Replying to @rampagingruss
Not the most well attended protest
1
0
1
Also unclear how the number reconcile with this
0
0
0
Chair of FINMA: "We're not talking about small investors, we're talking about institutional and large investors."
3
0
6
Replying to @MarcRuby
Employees have already seen the value of deferred stock crater – down 78% from when it was awarded.

At CHF0.25 per share they can write off what's left.
0
0
17
Replying to @MarcRuby
The Strategic Delivery Plan awards amounted to CHF497m.

In addition, CHF288m of deferred stock was offered as part of normal bonuses, plus CHF231m for retention. That's about $1.2bn of deferrals.

And that was just 2022.
1
0
9
Was given this book when I joined Credit Suisse in 2000. Final sentence: “We aim to rise to these challenges”
4
1
63
Replying to @MarcRuby
4/ Meanwhile, some property developers smelled an opportunity:

[Source: NYT, Oct 25, 1907]
1
1
35
Replying to @MarcRuby
3/ Most provided an abbreviated balance sheet, but some also offered a daily liquidity update:
2
3
30
Replying to @MarcRuby
2/ Some highlighted the experience of their directors and how long they'd been in business:
1
1
27
1/ In 1907, to staunch panic, banks took out a series of ads in newspapers.

Some argued for calm:
5
25
156
Can upload a new image (and text) for use in social media
0
0
1
Meanwhile, banks in Russia
3
8
51
Replying to @t0nyyates
Money market funds. Not really in the bank's gift to bring them on though, unless they incentivise holders via higher rates.
1
0
0
Replying to @MarcRuby
Some people have asked for this as % total deposits. Fair point.
1
4
45
By one measure 2023 is already shaping up to be worse than 2008
4
8
71
Wait till the Japanese farmers find out
3
8
80
*FHLBs to raise $64 billion in Short-Term Notes Offering
1
0
21
Can't help but read this as BTFD.
24
31
323
Investors got bailed out?
Janet Yellen: "Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out . . . and the reforms that have been put in place means we are not going to do that again. But we are concerned about depositors, and we’re focused on trying to meet their needs"
0
1
10