EconstratPB retweeted
It’s probably under reported or analyzed how much Trump’s pointless war in Iran has impacted AI funding as ME countries get forced to rebuild vs expand investments globally
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EconstratPB retweeted
It’s not today’s p/l you need to be worried about
It’s the correlated nature of the move
Which
- feeds into VAR
- forces more selling
- you sell what you can sell, not what you want to sell
- means the good things start to behave badly
Which is a very un-virtuous cycle
It’s the correlated nature of the move
Which
- feeds into VAR
- forces more selling
- you sell what you can sell, not what you want to sell
- means the good things start to behave badly
Which is a very un-virtuous cycle
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EconstratPB retweeted
🧵on the AI audit of Saez and Zucman and by implication Piketty (or PSZ together):
Since some are objecting to what the computer found, here's a list of biases in this trio's work that were found by humans over the last decade.
Since some are objecting to what the computer found, here's a list of biases in this trio's work that were found by humans over the last decade.
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EconstratPB retweeted
ded
Fox: Why are you here this morning?
Trump rally attendee: Well, in the late 70s, I was a little too young to go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I'll ever get, so that's why I'm here. There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front.
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EconstratPB retweeted
JUST IN: The US still has an inflation problem and it's getting worse again.
PCE Inflation rose to 3.6% in September. That's the highest since May.
Core PCE Inflation (excludes food and energy) ticked up to 3.1%. That's also the highest since May.
Bottom line: Inflation is . It's largely due to war in Iran, but there's legitimate concern that inflation is spreading beyond energy.
PCE Inflation rose to 3.6% in September. That's the highest since May.
Core PCE Inflation (excludes food and energy) ticked up to 3.1%. That's also the highest since May.
Bottom line: Inflation is . It's largely due to war in Iran, but there's legitimate concern that inflation is spreading beyond energy.
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EconstratPB retweeted
Implied moves for u earnings degens
AMZN +- 6.34%
SNDK +- 5.83%
INTC +- 6.87%
RDDT +- 10.16%
RKT +- 5.12%
AMZN +- 6.34%
SNDK +- 5.83%
INTC +- 6.87%
RDDT +- 10.16%
RKT +- 5.12%
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EconstratPB retweeted
US GDP BEATS EXPECTATIONS AS INFLATION ACCELERATES
US Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualized, beating the 3.2% forecast and accelerating from 2.2% in Q2.
GDP & CONSUMPTION
🔸 GDP: 3.4% vs. 3.2% est.
🔸 Personal Consumption: 3.8% vs. 3.4% est.
🔸 GDP Price Index: 2.3% vs. 3.2% est.
🔸 Q3 Core PCE: 2.5% vs. 2.4% est.
SEPTEMBER INFLATION
🔸 Headline PCE YoY: 3.6% vs. 3.6% est.
🔸 Core PCE YoY: 3.1% vs. 3.1% est.
🔸 Headline PCE MoM: 0.5% vs. 0.5% est.
🔸 Core PCE MoM: 0.3% vs. 0.3% est.
CONSUMER & LABOR DATA
🔸 Personal Income: +0.2% vs. +0.3% est.
🔸 Personal Spending: +0.5% vs. +0.6% est.
🔸 Real Spending: 0.0% vs. +0.1% est.
🔸 Initial Jobless Claims: 194K vs. 198K est.
🔸 Continuing Claims: 1.701M vs. 1.720M est.
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EconstratPB retweeted
$GOOGL is down -13.35% - the worst single day drop in its 22 yr history! The only two comparable times it was down this much were during the GFC and Covid crashes!
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September core PCE printed .317% unrounded. I had .34%. Missed the month by 2bps.
With revisions I nailed the trend. 🧵
September core PCE printed .317% unrounded. I had .34%. Missed the month by 2bps.
With revisions I nailed the trend. 🧵
Economists who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect core prices to have increased 0.34% in September (4.2% annualized, 3.1% year-over year)
This would be the highest monthly reading since January's 0.40% core PCE print
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Revisions moved July from .126% to .138% and August from .247% to .262%.
What I published on Oct 14 vs. actual:
3m annualized: 2.86% vs 2.87%
6m annualized: 2.90% vs 2.90%
YoY: 3.12% vs 3.12%
Essentially to the basis point.
Revisions moved July from .126% to .138% and August from .247% to .262%.
What I published on Oct 14 vs. actual:
3m annualized: 2.86% vs 2.87%
6m annualized: 2.90% vs 2.90%
YoY: 3.12% vs 3.12%
Essentially to the basis point.
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3/
Where I missed: health care. I had it firm. PPI hospitals and physicians came in soft, and health care added only ~5bps to supercore.
That’s the 2bps.
/FIN
Where I missed: health care. I had it firm. PPI hospitals and physicians came in soft, and health care added only ~5bps to supercore.
That’s the 2bps.
/FIN
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EconstratPB retweeted
The $GOOG trade by Greg Abel-Son should a reminder that the New Berkshire isn't like the Old Berkshire 🥹🤭🌳
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EconstratPB retweeted
Economists who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect core prices to have increased 0.34% in September (4.2% annualized, 3.1% year-over year)
This would be the highest monthly reading since January's 0.40% core PCE print
This would be the highest monthly reading since January's 0.40% core PCE print
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