my new plan is to just go wherever a big election is a week or two in advance and do my own polling.
disrupt that, claude.
disrupt that, claude.
1
2
28
1,955
The lesson from Lula winning (after Bolsonaro was priced ~82%) is that prediction markets are just a function of polls—which are increasingly unreliable.
There’s no signal from betting odds… just more opportunity to speculate. Expect a lot of “surprises” during midterms.
There’s no signal from betting odds… just more opportunity to speculate. Expect a lot of “surprises” during midterms.
27
27
271
13,135
on one hand, the Brazilian election could be annulled. on the other, Lula now trading as a foregone conclusion on Kalshi.
someone has to know something, otherwise this pricing is absurd
someone has to know something, otherwise this pricing is absurd
15
7
132
30,918
Wow. amazing tool.
The future of investment research is very clearly narrative-based or investigative (ie, Gavekal, Citrini, the Perkini thing).
Macro forecasting and analysis is nearly fully commoditized. But the world a year from now is always vastly different than we expect.
Policymakers remain human (for now), exogenous shocks (like covid) crop up out of nowhere, elections are always uncertain and increasingly consequential.
Edge is in being creative in a thoughtful way. Or flying to the factory and asking questions. Very different skillset than what dominated the past 10-15 years.
The future of investment research is very clearly narrative-based or investigative (ie, Gavekal, Citrini, the Perkini thing).
Macro forecasting and analysis is nearly fully commoditized. But the world a year from now is always vastly different than we expect.
Policymakers remain human (for now), exogenous shocks (like covid) crop up out of nowhere, elections are always uncertain and increasingly consequential.
Edge is in being creative in a thoughtful way. Or flying to the factory and asking questions. Very different skillset than what dominated the past 10-15 years.
I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free.
Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
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15,761
is Risk Parity back? bond bear market over?
I'm not so sure.
ericwallerstein.substack.com/p/return-of-ri…
I'm not so sure.
ericwallerstein.substack.com/p/return-of-ri…
3
0
9
1,886
Meta spending a cool 2.5% of GDP on off-balance sheet AI infrastructure.
roughly double the European Union’s total defense spending
roughly double the European Union’s total defense spending
17
71
705
64,447
interesting research on the Canadian carry trade. my main takeaways:
1) underscores the deteriorating US external position and relationship between strong FX and negative NIIP
2) important for allocators in surplus countries worried about an equity market drawdown or weak USD
1) underscores the deteriorating US external position and relationship between strong FX and negative NIIP
2) important for allocators in surplus countries worried about an equity market drawdown or weak USD
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6
38
3,525
corollary for asia: given the strength of Japan’s income-driven CA surplus, plus substantial NIIP, this supports the idea that consumption and domestic demand can rise quicker without generating much (if any) macro fundamental risk.
bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/upl…
bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/upl…
0
3
3
876
Canada core CPI is below 2.0% and showing no signs of accelerating. Yet hawkish comments from Gov Macklem boosted market pricing for October up from 8bps to 21bps.
I’m not sure why you’d hike rates in an economy with no growth and tradable sectors under threat.
I’m not sure why you’d hike rates in an economy with no growth and tradable sectors under threat.
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1
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7,317
amazing meeting, lovely guy!
Beginning, continuation of a beautiful friendship!
Enjoyed the coffee, dear @ericwallerstein
Thanks for coming by!
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3,094
you genuinely hate to see it.
I thought Indonesia would be an EM success story coming out of the Iran war—terms of trade shock could have been positive in the intermediate term, and a lot of political risk premium was already priced in.
Now the President’s nephew runs the central bank. Fiscal dominance is the law of the land. Indonesia will be likely be downgraded to a frontier market fairly soon; the capital flight will be immense. USDIDR could reach 20,000 in 12m.
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6,591