There’s an old saying in politics: You hunt where the ducks are.

I joined hosts @SharlaMcBride and @marc_lotter on @NEWSMAX’s Wake Up America to shed light on Michigan’s tale of two rallies.

Trump went to turn out his base in a part of the state he won with 66%. Meanwhile, cause, as our research shows, key parts of the Democratic coalition have real problems with Abdul El-Sayed.

Our research found a 17-point candidate-specific drop for El-Sayed among Jewish Democrats, with similar warning signs among churchgoing Black voters.

And across the Senate map, any potential blue wave seems to have crested a few weeks ago—and may not have the same energy when it hits the beach, as Republicans appear to be turning out.

Thanks to fellow guest @MaryWalterRadio, Sharla, Marc, and the entire Wake Up America team at NEWSMAX.

Can you trust the poll behind the headline? Here are three simple tests.

I joined anchor Cary Dunst on @NTDNews Evening News to unpack the crazy Wedgewood fake polling firm and similar revelations, and to shed light on how reporters—and the public—can separate credible polling hree clicks or you’re out.
The methodology, full toplines, crosstabs, sponsor, field dates, interviewing methods, and the percentage collected through each mode should be easy to find–-in three clicks or less from the headline.

If they hide the details or make them hard to find, throw it out.

2. Find the #1 question: “Who did you vote for in the last presidential election?”
That is one of the most important tools pollsters have developed for finding hidden Trump voters, shy Trump voters, working-class Republicans, and other working-class voters who are less likely to answer surveys.

If they didn’t ask it, throw it out.

If they asked it, but their sample describes a fantasy version of the last election, throw it out.

3. Examine how they collected the interviews.
If a survey relies entirely on one cheap method—such as 100% paid online panel respondents or 100% text messages—throw it out.

Remember the famous “Dewey Defeats Truman” polling failure. In 1948, Republican households were more likely to have telephones, so telephone polling oversampled Republicans. Today, text-only polling can create the opposite problem by producing too many Democrats.

Serious polling reaches voters in multiple ways with a focus on real human-to-human telephone interviews.

You can do much more, but these are 3 simple steps to get started.

🚨 NEW EPISODE: Who Wins the 2026 Midterms? A Pollster & Elections Forecaster Compare Notes

Join me and Patrick Allocco (@psallocco) of the @ZoosePolitical Index for their 2026 midterm outlook, a closer look at polling and forecasts, and the stories behind Patrick’s career—from camp0s to Michael Jackson and an Angola hostage situation.

The episode explores:

• The Senate map, candidate quality, and Patrick’s House forecast

• Pollster track records, public polling incentives, and AI-assisted analysis

• Campaign computing in 1985, Michael Jackson and the Angola hostage story

Watch the full episode and follow @PolTradeSecrets for more.

🚨 Will Campaigns have a dedicated AI position on staff or will it be a hybrid? Julie Sweet explains why the answer depends on the race, the team, and the budget.

> Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 When everyone has access to new tools, what makes someone worth hiring? @JustinGermany explains why trust and the ability to deliver still matter.

> Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 NEW Political Trade Secrets: The Political AI Arms Race: How AI Is Transforming Campaigns, Advertising, & Persuasion.

Join me and my guests Julie Sweet of the AAPC and @JustinGermany of Outlaw Media as we pull back the curtain on how AI is changing the mechanics of campterms and beyond.

Episode explores:

• The new information filter: How chatbots, AI search summaries, and personal assistants could change what voters learn about candidates.

• A look toward 2028: Personalized political messages, synthetic influencers, and AI agents that could change how campaigns and voters interact.

• And more!

Listen on Apple Podcasts NOW: na2.hubs.ly/H08znPL0

Could some of today’s cheap media polling methods produce another “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment?

I joined anchor @VeronicaDudo on @EWTN News Nightly to explain how cutting corners with 100% text-message surveys or cheap online panels of paid respondents could distort the 2026 48, telephone polling oversampled Republicans because Republican households were more likely to have phones. Today, text-only polling typically produces too many Democrats—and too many Republicans who don’t like Trump.

By contrast, higher-quality internal polls connect with voters in more than one way and still conduct a majority of interviews human-to-human by telephone.

The technology changed. The sampling challenge didn’t.
Thanks to @VeronicaDudo and the @EWTN News Nightly team.

> Watch the full segment below—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe to my X for more x.com/DustinOlson/st…

🚨 If AI can generate the video, why do you still need a creative director? @JustinGermany explains why the concept, creative judgment, and production experience still matter.

> Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

Will Artificial—or Super—Intelligence shape the 2026 midterms?

I joined anchor @VeronicaDudo on @EWTN News Nightly to explain what our polling says about voters’ views of AI—and why research suggests a political AI arms race is already unfolding behind the scenes in campaigns.
the Senate map may play out differently from the House, why it could buck the national media narrative, and the polling pitfalls to watch in 2026.

It was a great conversation for @EWTN’s worldwide Catholic news audience.

Thanks to the talented @VeronicaDudo and the @EWTN News Nightly team.

🚨 A dramatization, a reenactment, or a synthetic person? Julie Sweet explains why an AI disclosure should help viewers understand what they are actually seeing, not just simply say some AI was used.

> Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for morrfT

Will Artificial—or Super—Intelligence shape the 2026 midterms?

I joined anchor @VeronicaDudo on @EWTN @News Nightly to explain what our polling says about voters’ views of AI—and why research suggests a political AI arms race is already unfolding behind the scenes in campaigns.
the Senate map may play out differently from the House, why it could buck the national media narrative, and the polling pitfalls to watch in 2026.

It was a great conversation for EWTN’s worldwide Catholic news audience.

Thanks to the talented @VeronicaDudo and the @EWTN News Nightly team.

I’m joining @EWTNNewsNightly anchor @VeronicaDudo on the Global Catholic Network this evening at the top of both broadcasts:
6 PM Eastern
9 PM Eastern

I’ll answer: Can you trust the polls?

We’ll discuss midterm Senate races and what reporters and voters can look for to tell ble.

Watch on Cable, DIRECTV 370, DISH Network 261, or Online:
EWTN.com/live/TV

🚨 @JustinGermany explains how the use of AI in content production opens up more possibilities for campaigns to produce creative and fun ads and videos to connect with voters.

> Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 NEW Political Trade Secrets: The Political AI Arms Race: How AI Is Transforming Campaigns, Advertising, & Persuasion.

Join me and my guests Julie Sweet of the AAPC and @JustinGermany of Outlaw Media as we pull back the curtain on how AI is changing the mechanics of campterms and beyond.

Episode explores:

• Satire, deception, & disclaimers: What Julie’s research reveals about voter trust—and why labeling something “AI-generated” may not explain what viewers are actually seeing.

• The less-visible battle: How model refusals, political free speech, and data privacy affect the work happening behind the scenes.

• And more!

>Listen on Spotify NOW: open.spotify.com/episode/6OabJ6…

They didn’t poll a single person. They made it up—and only came clean after getting caught.

I joined anchor Cary Dunst on @NTDNews Evening News to break down the fake Wedgewood polls and explain why polling is crack cocaine for reporters. They can’t help themselves.

But when it No. 1 rule for judging their credibility is simple:

If a poll can’t accurately describe the last election, don’t believe what it says about the next one.

Thanks to Cary and the @NTDNews team for the opportunity to shed light on this situation.

🚨 From audience prompts to a finished 15-second ad in under two hours. @JustinGermany and Julie Sweet explain what happened during an AI demonstration at an AAPC event.

> Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

PREDICTION MARKETS: When the research and the odds disagree, where’s the opportunity?

Join me and Sean Bartley LIVE TOMORROW, Friday, October 23, at NOON ET, for our Polling Club Strategy Session:

Finding the Best Prediction Market Plays:
Where the Research & Odds Disagree

Wheunderestimating an outcome—and overlooking potential upside? We’ll dig into the research, compare it with the odds, and discuss what we’re watching.

Bring your questions. Let’s get into it!

🎯 STRATEGY SESSION RSVP: americanpulse.us/products/commu…

🚨 AI in campaigns goes beyond making ads. Julie Sweet explains how it is showing up in fundraising, polling, and even door-knocking quality control.

> Find the full episode here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 NEW Political Trade Secrets: The Political AI Arms Race: How Artificial Intelligence Is Transforming Campaigns, Advertising, & Persuasion.

Join me and my guests Julie Sweet of the AAPC and @JustinGermany of Outlaw Media as we pull back the curtain on how AI is changing the mechthe 2026 midterms and beyond.

Episode covers:

• Who’s ahead—and where: Republicans’ early-adoption advantage, how both parties are adapting, and where Democrat organizations are getting their material into AI-generated candidate answers.

• Inside the creative process: Justin breaks down how he created the first-ever 100% AI-generated television ad, how the technology is advancing, and explains why making an AI ad still requires a director, not just a prompt.

• And more!

> Watch NOW: youtu.be/UiK1-PattOg

🚨 New Episode: The Political AI Arms Race: How Artificial Intelligence is Transforming Campaigns, Advertising, & Persuasion

Who’s getting ahead in the political AI arms race—and what happens when AI helps create the campaign message and becomes the filter through which voters rece@JustinGermany, founder of Outlaw Media and veteran ad-maker from the Bush-Cheney and McCain presidential campaigns, and Julie Sweet, Director of Advocacy & Industry Relations at the American Association of Political Consultants and former Democratic political consultant.

From real AI-generated commercials to new research on which party is winning the AI arms race and how AI disclaimers affect voter trust, this conversation explores what the technology can do, where it creates friction, and why experience and human judgment still matter.

Justin Germany, founder of Outlaw Media and veteran ad-maker from the Bush-Cheney and McCain presidential campaigns, and Julie Sweet, Director of Advocacy & Industry Relations at the American Association of Political Consultants.

The episode explores:

• Who’s ahead—and where: Republicans’ early-adoption advantage, how both parties are adapting, and where Democrat organizations are getting their material into AI-generated candidate answers.

• Inside the creative process: Justin breaks down how he created the first-ever 100% AI-generated television ad, how the technology is advancing, and explains why making an AI ad still requires a director, not just a prompt.

• The new information filter: How chatbots, AI search summaries, and personal assistants could change what voters learn about candidates.

• Satire, deception, & disclaimers: What Julie’s research reveals about voter trust—and why labeling something “AI-generated” may not explain what viewers are actually seeing.

• The less-visible battle: How model refusals, political free speech, and data privacy affect the work happening behind the scenes.

PLUS: Stay to the end for a look toward 2028—personalized political messages, synthetic influencers, and AI agents that could change how campaigns and voters interact.

Learn more about Julie Sweet’s work and AAPC’s research and resources at TheAAPC.org, and explore Justin Germany’s work at OutlawMediaLLC.com.

🔹 Join Polling Club for Exclusive Insights on Polling and Strategy Sessions covering Elections, Prediction Markets, and Campaign Strategy: PollingClub.com

> LIKE, FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE to @PolTradeSecrets for your front-row seat to how politics really works!

And a Handle of Vodka
(judging by the picture)

A Texas Senate fight can have consequences far beyond Texas. @mikehahn_ and I discuss polling, campaign spending and the cost of competing in the state's media markets.

Full episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Ohio's Senate race through @mikehahn_'s lens: Dueling Senate records, the one place where Trump (and the impeachment of Trump is on the ballot, and the flip-flopping data-center debate. Hear what he thinks matters in the matchup.

Full @PolTradeSecrets episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Abdul El-Sayed is full of you-know-what… and has his own record to answer for.

I joined @NEWSMAX’s The Count with host @LidiaNews Curanaj and political analyst @MehekCooke to discuss the Michigan Democrat’s judgment and the battle for the Senate.

According to the @FreeBeacon, ’s Muslim Brotherhood president in a statement calling on him to “purge the media and the police.”

Why does this matter? Hamas emerged from that same Muslim Brotherhood movement.

These are questions about his own record and judgment. Why did he endorse that president and support that horrible statement? Does he stand by it today?

I also discuss hidden Trump voters, our extensive research with Jewish Democrats in Michigan, and why Republican turnout remains essential.

Voters deserve answers. Candidates don’t get a pass because they call the questions ridiculous.

Thanks to Curanaj, Cooke, NEWSMAX, and The Count team for the conversation.

> Watch the full segment here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/vCq2LEW3h_w

Republicans are in a better position to keep the Senate than the breathless media headlines suggest. But they still have to show up and vote.

I joined @NEWSMAX’s The Count with host @LidiaNews Curanaj and fellow guest @MehekCooke to look beyond the midterm polling headlines.

I media polls are still missing hard-to-reach Trump voters, particularly working-class voters.

Based on our polling, I believe Republicans could keep the Senate. But the historic midterm headwinds are real, and turnout remains essential.

We also discussed the Michigan Senate race and radical Abdul El-Sayed's reported support for Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood president. This is a tough race, but our research shows that El-Sayed’s radical connections and positions has Jewish Democrats three times more likely to support Republican Mike Rogers than Democrats overall.

Candidate quality matters. Turnout matters. And exposing a misleading narrative meant to create a self-fulfilling prophecy doesn't win an election.

Neither panic nor complacency is a strategy.

Thanks to @LidiaNews, @MehekCooke, @NEWSMAX, and The Count team for a great conversation.

When a polling average moves, ALWAYS ask why. I walk through a Michigan example, question the poll's recalled-vote sample and explain why I still expect a close race.

Watch our analysis with guest @mikehahn_: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

A bigger sample doesn’t fix a bad poll.

I joined fellow pollster John McLaughlin (@jmclghln) on @NEWSMAX’s National Report to explain why the most important question isn’t simply how many people answered a poll. It’s how they conducted the poll, who answered, AND who was missed.
triking example: A Texas survey had far more respondents recalling voting for Kamala Harris than actually did, in a state that strongly backed Trump.

That’s why good reporters need to start examining the methodology, not just write a headline.

I explained why American Pulse uses multiple ways to reach people: live telephone interviews, text surveys, and other modes. Someone who ignores a call may answer a text. Different methods help reach different people.

Then look underneath the numbers: Are they surveying likely voters? Are postgraduate respondents overrepresented—a common problem? And most importantly, does the sample’s recalled 2024 presidential vote reasonably reflect what actually happened?

For pollsters whose livelihoods depend on getting it right, those aren’t academic questions. They’re essential checks and should be for reporters too.

Getting it right is a very different incentive from producing cheap, drive-by media polls to grab headlines.

Before trusting a poll’s take on the next election, let’s look at what it says happened in the last one.

Thanks to anchors @E_D_Hill and @KyleLowder, @jmclghln, @NEWSMAX, and the excellent National Report team for the opportunity to pull back the curtain on what good polls actually look like.

This was rare, next-level news coverage. Kudos.

Not every pollster hates @realDonaldTrump.

I pointed that out tonight on FINNERTY, joining guest host @christina_bobb for @NEWSMAX’s primetime coverage of the midterms.

Maybe that’s why our team at American Pulse achieved 97% accuracy in 2024.

But the biggest distinction stand about polling is that drive-by media pollsters are different than regular pollsters, whose research campaigns and organizations use to make big, expensive decisions.

Our livelihoods depend on getting close. Their cheap public media polls simply thrive on grabbing another breathless headline.

In the segment, I pointed to the public polls currently making up the Texas average. My concern: too many either skip the important steps we’ve figured out over the past 10 years to find hard-to-reach Trump voters or aren’t transparent about what they’re doing.

That includes working-class voters who have become central to the Republican coalition. Just cause you’re hard to reach doesn’t mean you don’t exist.

I didn’t have time to spell out those practices, so here are a few key ones:
‣ Short surveys that ordinary people can finish.
‣ Respondents have multiple ways to participate, especially a large share of live telephone interviews alongside some text surveys.
‣ Education weighting that accounts for the phenomenon of too many postgraduates responding.
‣ And the #1 check: asking who respondents voted for in the last presidential election, then making sure the sample’s recalled margin reasonably reflects what actually happened.

Most of these 2026 media polls present revisionist history, recalling Harris winning Trump states or doing better than she did—that is, if they even bother asking.

As a result, too many media polls have too many Harris voters.

If a sample tells a wildly different story about an election that already happened, why should we trust its story about the next one?

That doesn’t mean Republicans escape the historic midterm trend for the party in the White House. But the breathless media hype for Democrats is way overdone, seemingly intended to create a self-fulfilling prophecy by ginning up fundraising for one side and suppressing energy on the other.

Thanks to @NEWSMAX, @christina_bobb , fellow panelists @TheAmyRobbins and @hogangidley45, and the FINNERTY team for a great conversation.

PRIMETIME TONIGHT.

I’ll be joining @RobFinnertyUSA on @NEWSMAX’s FINNERTY at 8 PM ET to talk midterm polling and what the numbers are really saying.

If you want clear-eyed analysis beyond the spin, tune in.

You just can’t count Susan Collins out. @mikehahn_ discusses her electoral record and how he thinks the Graham Platner situation continues to impact Maine's Senate race.

Full @PolTradeSecrets episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Prediction markets are everywhere right now—but how much should you trust the odds?

Tomorrow (Friday, October 16) at Noon Eastern, Sean Bartley and I are breaking down practical prediction-market strategies and how polling impacts the market.

If you want a clearer way to read ing, and separate signal from noise, join us live in this Exclusive Polling Club Strategy Session.

RSVP: na2.hubs.ly/H08pTs70

Why does @mikehahn_ see Iowa as one of the most competitive races in this discussion? He weighs Ashley Hinson, Josh Turek and the messages voters are hearing.

Full @PolTradeSecrets episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

President Trump just put a national spotlight on a House race our @AmericanPulseUS polling says is a dead heat.

Ahead of the recent MT-01 debates and Trump’s Montana rally, the NonStop Local / American Pulse survey found Republican Aaron Flint leading Democrat Sam Forstag by only 3.4% undecided.

That’s exactly the kind of swing district where a Trump appearance can juice turnout and make the difference.

Statewide, Republican Kurt Alme’s Senate victory increasingly looks like a foregone conclusion. Democrats remain split between Independent Seth Bodnar and their own nominee, Alani Bankhead, and Montana's Democrat Party chair just resigned to endorse Bodnar.

The statewide fracture breaks the Democrats’ unified front and could have trickle-down effects for Forstag in this highly competitive congressional race.

Shout out to @bradmwarren and our media partner NonStop Local (@KULR), and their network of TV Stations bringing the top political coverage in Montana.

Here's NonStop Local highlighting our poll in its coverage of President Trump’s rally (get more of their coverage in the first comment): montanarightnow.com/elections/pres…

Why is Alaska so difficult to poll? I explain why Alaska's geography makes the Senate race difficult to measure.

Full episode with @mikehahn_: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Why are @DanSullivan_AK's chances in Alaska better than they were a month ago?

I joined The Leventhal Report to explain why President Trump’s trip to Alaska matters.

First, what’s at stake? We don’t have one national election. We have a collection of elections in key states and s own dynamics.

In Alaska, the big wrinkle is the state’s terrible ranked-choice voting system: Democrats consolidated behind one candidate while Republicans split three ways, creating a path for Democrats to win the governor’s race and drag down the Senate ticket.

That’s why Trump’s rally matters. His team has spent a decade identifying Trump voters and learning how to turn them out. Sullivan needs that turnout to overcome the drag from the governor’s race. It will make a difference.

But that’s not all that’s happening on the ground. We’re seeing the shine come off Mary Peltola. Turns out she’s not the all-star Democrats hoped she’d be.

Recent reports from @nytimes and the @alaskalandmine cite former staffers alleging anti-gay slurs about staff and repeated use of the N-word, including about an Army veteran and former Anchorage NAACP president. Disgusting, if true.

Thanks to @RickLeventhal, U.S. Army veteran Teddy Daniels, and @NEWSMAX for the conversation.

The most important tea leaves for Democrats’ 2028 presidential primary may be in Michigan.

I joined Wake Up America to discuss the emerging 2028 field.

Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris may lead today’s polls, but 2028 is going to be a cattle call.

And if the extreme progressive shove a radical candidate like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan down America’s throat, expect that wing of the party to be emboldened heading into 2028.

Thanks to hosts @SharlaMcBride and @marc_lotter , @TudorDixon, and @NEWSMAX's Wake Up America team.

How is Frontline using AI? @mikehahn_ discusses content, data tools and internal workflows—and why he thinks the technology has much further to go.

Full episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

What counts as digital campaigning in 2026? @mikehahn_ breaks Frontline’s work into fundraising and outreach—and explains how the channels fit together.

Full episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Looking to learn about Frontline Strategies? @mikehahn_ outlines advertising, fundraising and government relations services—and says they expect to reopen for business in early 2027.

Details: FrontlineStrategies.co

Full episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Why does @mikehahn_ say campaigns should be on WinRed? He explains how committee fundraising, donation prompts and donor data connect.

Full conversation: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

WinRed vs. ActBlue: @mikehahn_ gives his view of the fundraising contest and the role of shared donor platforms.

Watch his full answer on Political Trade Secrets. youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

@mikehahn_ calls it the “AI arms race of politics.” He explains why he believes adoption matters beyond writing a fundraising email. Full conversation: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

14,000 open-ended survey responses. I explain how AI changed my team’s ability to analyze them. Watch the discussion with @mikehahn_: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Not every poll deserves to drive the conversation.

Join American Pulse’s Polling Club live on Friday at 12 PM Eastern for How to Spot Bad Polls: Where Current Polling Goes Wrong. We’ll unpack the assumptions, methodology problems, and misread voter behavior that can turn a poll ine, and what to look for instead.

We’ll also cover new Montana U.S. Senate and Congressional District 1 polling. PLUS, Prediction Market strategies.

RSVP: americanpulse.us/products/commu…

“Be unique, be yourself.” @mikehahn_ on social content that sounds like the candidate—and why everyday campaign moments matter. Full episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

Digital fundraising is not only for big campaigns. @mikehahn_ discusses QR codes, family-and-friends links, and getting started with WinRed. Full episode: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

If a poll can’t get an election that already happened right, why trust it on the one a month from now?

I joined Ike Wingate on @NEWSMAX to talk Texas, turnout, and the closing month of the 2026 midterms.

And I was referring to that new, sketchy NYT/Siena poll, where they asked d voting for in the 2024 Presidential election; and their results discounted Trump’s win in Texas by 7 points—more than the margin they gave Talarico.

Ike asked why Trump is back in Texas, and it's simple. Trump is going where Trump voters are. Midterms are about getting out your base, and you aren’t gonna send him to Portland, Maine.

Plus, Texas also matters because redistricting put important House seats in play.

On the leaking of Ken Paxton’s private conversations, what’s more relevant are the official clips of James Talarico saying his is a Vegan campaign, God is ‘Non-Binary,’ and there are six biological genders…

All of that was said voluntarily, in public, in context… and most bizarrely, in Texas.

Thanks to @IkeWingate, the talented @deneenborelli, and @NEWSMAX for the conversation.

Three Years Later: We Remember the Victims of October 7

Today marks three years since Hamas’s horrific October 7 attacks.

We remember those who were murdered, those taken hostage, the survivors, and the families whose lives were forever scarred.

In the weeks after the attack, d one of the most important studies we have done, examining America’s views on Israel, terrorism, antiSemitism, national security, and a world that felt in crisis.

The research found strong support for Israel, but it also revealed warning signs: a deep generational divide and serious concern about the rise of antiSemitism on college campuses.

Many of those trends remain visible today.

To help preserve that record and make this important information available, we are opening the complete study to the public FREE for the next week through our Polling Club.

It includes the full topline results, detailed crosstabs, our Strategic Insights Memo, and a Video Poll Briefing in which Bill O’Reilly interviews me about the study’s findings.

We offer these resources as a contribution to understanding what Americans truly believed in the immediate aftermath of October 7, and what those findings can still teach us today.

Most importantly, we share them so we don’t lose sight of what happened and what the numbers represent: the victims, those who endured captivity, the survivors, and their families.

May we never forget.

Access the complete study FREE for the next week at PollingClub.com.

You don’t ask the arsonist to put out the fire.

On @NEWSMAX’s Wake Up America, I explained how Americans’ frustration with high prices doesn’t automatically mean they trust Democrats to fix them.

Last week’s Harvard-Harris poll has President Trump and Republicans leading 51–49 on who voters trust with the economy—even as Americans rank inflation as their top concern.

Voters remember Biden-flation. And then watch Sen. Mark Kelly struggle to explain how Democrats would lower costs. His answer: tax the rich.

That’s rich, when had Kelly and the Democrats gotten their way, Americans would have faced the largest tax hike in history.

Promises are one thing. Votes are another.

Expecting more from the economy doesn’t mean trusting Democrats to fix it.

Thanks to fellow pollster @jmclghln, hosts @marc_lotter and @SharlaMcBride, and the @NEWSMAX Wake Up America team for a great conversation.

> Watch the full segment here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: youtu.be/Kdu_Vn9CU-4?si…

If a media poll can’t accurately describe the last election, why would we believe what it says about the next one?

I joined fellow pollster John McLaughlin on @NEWSMAX’s Wake Up America to look under the hood of the midterm numbers.

We don’t elect Congress with one national polls might tell us the national political mood. Control of Congress comes down to individual states and districts.

I pointed to Cook Political Report’s survey of 37 battleground House districts as a better gauge. Democrats led by 2 points—not the huge national margins dominating the headlines.

McLaughlin flagged another problem: The NYT / Sienna Texas poll showed roughly a 7-point Trump victory in 2024 when it asked folks who they voted for in the last presidential election. Trump actually won Texas by 14.

We know how to get polls right in 2026. A discrepancy like that deserves an explanation when they show Talarico +6—the difference would have him down 1 point.

We also discussed why frustration with prices doesn’t automatically mean trusting Democrats.

Thanks to @jmclghln , hosts @marc_lotter and @SharlaMcBride, and the entire Wake Up America team.

There’s a battle going on for your mind, on everything really, and media reporting on polling is no different…

So, if you think you’re being gaslit by this media narrative on polling, I can tell you, as a pollster, you are.

That doesn't mean it’s all sunshine and rainbows, but rump was in Ohio last night, and the media is making a big deal about the new NYT/Sienna Poll having former Sen. Sherrod Brown up +3.

That’s why I thought it was a good idea to remind folks that Sienna had Brown up +4 at this point in 2024… The year Brown became a FORMER senator.

Thanks to host @LidiaNews Curanaj and @NEWSMAX. I enjoyed joining the conversation with fellow guests Joe @ImperatriceV and Alex Thomason.

Looking for more insights on the news of the day? Join me Monday morning on @NEWSMAX’s Wake Up America at 7:45 am.

In his campaign last year, Mayor Mamdani said New Yorkers didn’t need to worry about a rise in prostitution under his watch. 

Since then, the city has pulled back on enforcing those laws and the prostitution trade is booming.

This is a classic example of incentives & disidrives changes in behavior.

Tune in to Sunday Agenda on @NEWSMAX with host @LidiaNews Curanaj until 2pm for more insights from me and my fellow guests Joe Imperatrice and Alex Thomason.

Enjoy seeing a Republican & Democrat disagree without being disagreeable?
Check out my Political Trade Secrets episode with my friend Aditi Bussells:
“The Dem They Didn't Know What to Do With”
youtube.com/watch?v=UTQjpA…

Don’t just ask who wins Texas. Ask what defending Texas costs everywhere else.

I joined @RobAstorino, one of my favorite @NEWSMAX hosts, for Saturday Agenda to debate the Texas Senate race with my friend, former Councilwoman Aditi Bussells.

I still expect @KenPaxtonTX to keep hands. But every dollar Republicans spend defending Texas is a dollar they can’t spend in another competitive race.

Democrats don’t have to win Texas to benefit from forcing Republicans to spend down their money advantage defending it.

@aditisrivastav and I see @jamestalarico very differently. I think he’s creepy and cringe, but we can still have a good-natured disagreement.

Enjoy seeing a Republican and a Democrat get along for a change? Check out my Political Trade Secrets (@PolTradeSecrets) episode with Aditi. Link in the comments.

Thanks to Rob and the NEWSMAX family for having us.

Tune back in to NEWSMAX tomorrow, Noon–2 PM ET, for more of my analysis on Sunday Agenda with the talented @LidiaNews Curanaj.

The midterms might turnout bad for Republicans but they might not be that bad.

Part of the issue in determining where the midterms, especially in the House, are heading are the flaws in the public opinion polls that seem to be missing shy Trump voters as they have for a decade.
@RobAstorino for having me on Saturday Agenda to share insights with fellow special guest @aditisrivastav.

Tune back into @NEWSMAX tomorrow from Noon-2pm ET to see my on Sunday Agenda with host @LidiaNews.

Use of AI in political campaigns is something everyone in politics is addressing in real time.

But innovations that press the envelope are nothing new in politics.

The key to good AI content in politics right now, humor.

Thank you to @RobAstorino for having me on @NEWSMAX’s day’s other special guest @aditisrivastav.

To learn more about AI and technology are impacting our politics today, check out our latest episode of Political Trade Secrets linked below.

youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

I just discussed how the current public surveys are underpolling Trump supporters and oversampling Democrats.

While we don’t know if Republicans will be able to overcome the historic midterm trend, we do know that during the Trump era U.S. Senate surveys overestimate Democrat time.

Catch more insights from me and today’s other special guest @aditisrivastav until 3pm today on Saturday Agenda with host @RobAstorino.

My colleagues and I are paid to get it right.

I joined anchor @BiancaDLGarza in-studio for Newswire to talk about what we can trust when the polls are telling different stories.

Campaigns and companies depend on our polling to make real decisions. Since 2016, we’ve learned that -class voters are less likely to answer surveys—Trump’s base.

Good pollsters have figured out how to account for that—not assume those voters disappeared as so many media public polls chasing headlines do.

But polling support is not turnout.

That’s why Trump’s stops in Republican areas make sense. Republicans have to get the people they already know are their voters to actually vote. If they don’t, this election won’t go well.

But part of the President’s campaign tour is also touting huge billion-dollar projects and the jobs they can bring, almost all in these locations.

And those rallies reach far beyond the people attending.

With Trump, the rally might be local. The audience is national.

Bianca also asked me about our polling and media influence. While legacy media is losing the public’s trust and audience in our surveys, it still drives headlines. Just witness the last few weeks.

Thanks to @BiancaDLGarza and the @NEWSMAX team for a great conversation.

Catch me later today with @RobAstorino on @NEWSMAX’s Saturday Agenda, 1–3 PM ET!

Did the voters move—or did a different poll enter the average?

I joined anchor @BiancaDLGarza in-studio for Newswire, alongside political strategist @LukeTBall, to look under the hood of the midterm numbers.

Take Michigan. We got breathless headlines last week about Abdul ” after one new Suffolk poll entered the average.

But look at who they surveyed: When asked who they voted for in 2024, more said Kamala Harris than Donald Trump—by 6 points. Trump actually won Michigan.

When a poll can’t get it right on an election that already happened, why would you put much stock in what it says about an election a month from now?

I’m not saying subtract six points from every Democrat. I’m saying look under the hood before treating a headline as gospel.

We also dug into the rapidly evolving debate over AI regulation.

On AI regulation, I pointed to our recent Montana polling: it showed that voters across the political spectrum say a candidate’s position on AI regulation matters to their vote.

Thanks to @BiancaDLGarza, @LukeTBall, and the @NEWSMAX for a great conversation.

Call it a “Tariff Dividend.”

Whether it’s fair or not, Tariffs are one of President Trump’s biggest economic messaging challenges, according to both our polling and others.

If people knew that they’re going to get a taste of that tariff money, they might be a little bit more times good policy needs better branding.

So don’t call the $5,000 check a Trump Dividend. Call it the Tariff Dividend.

Otherwise, the new Harvard poll this week still has Trump and Republicans leading Congressional Democrats 51–49 on who voters trust more with the economy.

Thanks to @E_D_Hill, @KrysiaLenzo, Monika Ploc, and the @NEWSMAX team.

Check the comments for where to catch me later today and throughout the weekend.

> Watch the full segment here—don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more: na2.hubs.ly/H089gzM0

On this week’s Fake News Friday, I addressed a doozy: “The View is a ‘News’ Program.”

In our @AmericanPulseUS polling, only 12.5% of Americans say they have a ‘great deal of trust’ in the Legacy Media, and it’s due to the shenanigans of characters like Ana Navarro and the ws like The View are news.

Catch me again this afternoon on Newswire with trusted broadcaster @BiancaDLGarza, 3-4 PM ET on Newsmax2.

Thanks to our hosts @E_D_Hill and @KrysiaLenzo and the entire @NEWSMAX National Report team!

President Trump is kicking off his midterm campaign push with stops in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama. Midterm elections are about shoring up and motivating your base, and the president is stopping in these red states to do just that.

Those stops also generate national coverage, @NEWSMAX, and plenty of social media clips.

With Trump, the rally is local. The audience is national.

Catch me this afternoon on Newswire with @BiancaDLGarza, 3-4 PM ET on NEWSMAX2.

Thanks to our hosts @E_D_Hill and @KrysiaLenzo and the entire National Report team!

🔴 ON THE AIR: NYC MEDIA TOUR
What’s on this weekend? Chances are, I am. Flip on the telly or hop online and join us!

I’m in NYC the next four days, bringing a pollster’s perspective to the headlines on the @NEWSMAX family of networks and @NTDNews, The @EpochTimes’ sister TV ER 2
9 AM–Noon: National Report—NEWSMAX
3–4 PM: Newswire with Bianca de la Garza—NEWSMAX2
8–9 PM: Tiffany Meier Tonight—NTD

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3
1–3 PM: Saturday Agenda—NEWSMAX

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4
Noon–2 PM: Sunday Agenda—NEWSMAX

MONDAY, OCTOBER 5: More to come.

All times Eastern.

Watch NEWSMAX through your cable provider, Newsmax2 at NewsmaxTV.com/n2, or both on NEWSMAX+. Stream NTD at NTD.com/tv.

Thanks to the networks and news teams!

@mikehahn_ makes his case for Mike Collins in Georgia, discussing his campaign activity and record. Frontline works with Collins, as Mike discloses in the full conversation.

Watch full conversation here: youtu.be/hvP24HeRyp4

📺 Catch me tomorrow morning in-studio for National Report on @NEWSMAX in NYC!

I’ll be joining @E_D_Hill & @KrysiaLenzo tomorrow, Friday, October 2, from 9 AM–Noon ET, bringing a pollster’s perspective to the news and looking behind the headlines regularly throughout the show.

Tune in!