Pinned Tweet
Excited to launch my new Substack!
Welcome to Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative. open.substack.com/pub/eddowdbeyo…
Welcome to Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative. open.substack.com/pub/eddowdbeyo…
91
394
1,895
442,195
Not shocking in the Golden Age of fraud.
💥EXCLUSIVE: Serious violations in Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine trial
Argentina’s regulatory findings raise troubling questions about the safety data behind Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine — and what international regulators knew before approving it.
LINK👇👇
@IamBrookJackson rt_2024
15
98
377
14,063
Hyperscalers = ILECs
Neo clouds = CLECs
$NVDA = $CSCO, Lucent & Nortel
The former ran capex way above trend and second derivative is slowing
The latter is having trouble accessing capital markets currently at reasonable costs.
Same thing happened in 2000. ILECs were ATT Verizon etc.
It’s only a matter of time when NVDA growth slows.
Neo clouds = CLECs
$NVDA = $CSCO, Lucent & Nortel
The former ran capex way above trend and second derivative is slowing
The latter is having trouble accessing capital markets currently at reasonable costs.
Same thing happened in 2000. ILECs were ATT Verizon etc.
It’s only a matter of time when NVDA growth slows.
Nvidia’s “beat and raise” machine depends significantly on the Special Forces of Demand, aka the neoclouds. Any SPV that can’t secure financing, delays its IPO, or faces uncertainty (CoreWeave, for example) is bad for the machine.
In recent months, Nvidia has also had a hard time supplying chips to its allies in SEA, but it still manages quite well in its own way. Don’t expect any U.S. department to do anything about it, as Nvidia has recently become heavily dependent on them too, and Jensen is lobbying aggressively behind the scenes.
While hyperscalers and SpaceX provide a safe harbor for Nvidia’s GPUs, that alone isn’t enough for the machine.
Therefore, Nvidia must help its commanders in the Special Forces of Demand, such as CoreWeave, if it wants to keep the AI party going longer.
Since Jensen has sworn to fight until the very end, down to Nvidia’s last cent, we should hear and see more from Jensen and Nvidia soon.
13
20
136
14,859
Edward Dowd retweeted
🚩🚩We are entering a macro-heavy, volatile week.
The market has begun a distinct unwinding process, and the overarching theme is structural caution.
The backdrop to this selling is the looming U.S. Midterm elections.
Watch the debt and credit markets. We are.
This is a ck off the week...see below.👇
The market has begun a distinct unwinding process, and the overarching theme is structural caution.
The backdrop to this selling is the looming U.S. Midterm elections.
Watch the debt and credit markets. We are.
This is a ck off the week...see below.👇
4
7
76
9,223
Edward Dowd retweeted
Jackson had the same spine injury that left Christopher Reeves paralyzed for life. He fully recovered, stunning the world
His mom’s secret? DMSO—a simple compound vets use for spinal injuries the FDA won’t approve. But that’s not the only “incurable” neurological disorder DMSO 000 studies support DMSO's use for conditions ranging from Alzheimer's and Parkinson's to strokes, MS, ALS, chronic pain, neuropathy, depression, epilepsy, and Down syndrome, and a physician who began treating his patients with it estimates roughly 80% of what people see neurologists for goes away with DMSO.🧵
His mom’s secret? DMSO—a simple compound vets use for spinal injuries the FDA won’t approve. But that’s not the only “incurable” neurological disorder DMSO 000 studies support DMSO's use for conditions ranging from Alzheimer's and Parkinson's to strokes, MS, ALS, chronic pain, neuropathy, depression, epilepsy, and Down syndrome, and a physician who began treating his patients with it estimates roughly 80% of what people see neurologists for goes away with DMSO.🧵
136
2,373
6,881
180,124
Love the ratio here….epic!
If you go to bed on election night and don't know who won a midterm congressional race, that's normal. And if you wake up the next morning and find that a candidate who was behind hours earlier has since pulled ahead, that's normal, too. (via @PolitiFact) to.pbs.org/4zqnWBa
47
98
1,286
50,562
Edward Dowd retweeted
🚨🇵🇱COUP UNDERWAY IN POLAND!
PM Donald Tusk has just sent police to storm Constitutional Tribunal building in Warsaw in the middle of the night.
Tusk waited until President Karol Nawrocki left the country before ordering the police takeover.
Nawrocki was halfway to Senegal when he abruptly turned his plane around and rushed back to Poland to confront the unfolding crisis.
The EU, which backs Donald Tusk, has STILL NOT issued a statement on this unprecedented crisis or condemned the attempted coup. x.com/PanP23929/stat…
PM Donald Tusk has just sent police to storm Constitutional Tribunal building in Warsaw in the middle of the night.
Tusk waited until President Karol Nawrocki left the country before ordering the police takeover.
Nawrocki was halfway to Senegal when he abruptly turned his plane around and rushed back to Poland to confront the unfolding crisis.
The EU, which backs Donald Tusk, has STILL NOT issued a statement on this unprecedented crisis or condemned the attempted coup. x.com/PanP23929/stat…
1,222
6,880
29,949
3,582,998
Edward Dowd retweeted
The same script in Romania, Hungary, and now Poland.The @EU_Commission is supposed to defend the EU rule of law. It does the opposite.
My good friend @D_Tarczynski explains what happened in Poland last night.
#Poland
My good friend @D_Tarczynski explains what happened in Poland last night.
#Poland
“We the People” means nothing to globalists.
329
3,725
9,530
197,971
The Semiconductor index figured this out in June after its parabolic advance finished and peaked. Down 20% since then.
When the memory industry, which is a commodity, has price surges like we witnessed it causes demand destruction. Oh and by the way there was likely double ordering on the way up as individual purchasing managers need the chip allocation for their company so when shortages occur they put in an order for more than they need. So yes chips are collecting dust. Happens every semiconductor cycle I’ve ever seen.
When the memory industry, which is a commodity, has price surges like we witnessed it causes demand destruction. Oh and by the way there was likely double ordering on the way up as individual purchasing managers need the chip allocation for their company so when shortages occur they put in an order for more than they need. So yes chips are collecting dust. Happens every semiconductor cycle I’ve ever seen.
“.. Investors are waking up to the fact that the chip shortage may be an illusion,” said the chief investment officer at a North American hedge fund. Demand for components “should not be soft right now, in this part of the cycle.”
@FT
ft.com/content/3ba953…
22
68
461
30,694
The gimmicks and games of private credit are increasingly under pressure as defualts rise. Eventually a collateral chain breaks somewhere and the private market freezes.
PRIVATE CREDIT DEFAULTS JUST HIT A RECORD
Fitch says private credit defaults have reached an all-time high, with lenders increasingly relying on accounting gymnastics and debt extensions to keep troubled borrowers afloat.
📌 No paywall, free read: quoththeraven.substack.com/p/oh-by-the-wa…
23
67
455
20,942
Edward Dowd retweeted
I have developed an interactive knowledge system that's better than an AI model for getting answers to important questions, that requires no GPU to run, that runs entirely locally with no internet, and that achieves output speeds of > 1,000 tokens / second on a meager laptop.
It's built on Rust and launches its own local endpoint with an OpenAI-compatible prompt-handling engine so you can wire it to your harness or access it from Python, etc. (Or you can just talk to it manually with a prompt.)
Today I demo'd it for Zach Vorhies on our "Zach-Adams Effect" show which will air soon. He was blown away.
You'll be able to download this for free and run it locally forever, and you'll have access to millions of nuggets of knowledge that can transform your life for the better, completely free... without needing to buy an expensive GPU. So far it runs on Windows and Linux. Mac hopefully on the way.
More details coming soon. Launch day is the Friday after Thanksgiving Day, worldwide. Follow my channel to be alerted when this goes live.
It's built on Rust and launches its own local endpoint with an OpenAI-compatible prompt-handling engine so you can wire it to your harness or access it from Python, etc. (Or you can just talk to it manually with a prompt.)
Today I demo'd it for Zach Vorhies on our "Zach-Adams Effect" show which will air soon. He was blown away.
You'll be able to download this for free and run it locally forever, and you'll have access to millions of nuggets of knowledge that can transform your life for the better, completely free... without needing to buy an expensive GPU. So far it runs on Windows and Linux. Mac hopefully on the way.
More details coming soon. Launch day is the Friday after Thanksgiving Day, worldwide. Follow my channel to be alerted when this goes live.
80
164
1,093
40,427
Edward Dowd retweeted
"We've never, ever, ever had this low of job creation and not been in recession…"
na2.hubs.ly/H08HZgc0
#economy #FOMC #federalreserve #dimartinobooth
na2.hubs.ly/H08HZgc0
#economy #FOMC #federalreserve #dimartinobooth
39
41
259
46,395
Better late than never. I suspect this was delayed due to the economic consequences. They should have done this day one. If they actually follow through this will add to economic troubles already brewing.
179
365
2,396
69,178
Edward Dowd retweeted
Ed Dowd: The AI Bubble & $3 Trillion Private Credit Crisis — Is the Party Ending?
I sat down with @DowdEdward, former BlackRock portfolio manager, founding partner of Phinance Technologies, and bestselling author of Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022.
DrawingStreet experience, including the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, Ed explains why he sees alarming similarities between today's AI investment boom and previous speculative bubbles.
We explore the nearly $3 trillion private credit market, the growing reliance on debt to finance AI infrastructure, Nvidia's vendor financing arrangements, and warning signs emerging from companies like CoreWeave. Could the unraveling of the AI financing boom trigger a much larger financial crisis?
Ed also explains why he anticipates a deflationary crisis followed by massive Federal Reserve money printing, potentially setting the stage for another wave of inflation.
Later, we discuss his bestselling book Cause Unknown, his research into excess mortality, disability, cancer trends, and declining fertility rates in the wake of COVID-19, as well as his concerns about vaccine safety and the importance of individual freedom in an increasingly centralized world.
For more of Ed Dowd's financial analysis, economic research, and commentary, explore the links below:
Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative: substack.com/@eddowdbeyondt…
Phinance Technologies: phinancetechnologies.com
Ed Dowd's Official Website: eddowd.com
Follow Ed on X: @DowdEdward
Want financial privacy? Check out my favorite privacy coin @zano_project
You can buy Zano seamlessly on MEXC using a VPN, or browse the full list of exchanges where Zano is available here: zanolist.com/exchanges
You can also find educational content, tutorials, and interviews on the official Zano YouTube Channel: youtube.com/@zanoproject
0:00 Ed Dowd: Wall Street Fraud & Financial Crises
5:02 Is Another Stock Market Crash Coming?
6:45 The Next Financial Crisis: 3–12 Months?
7:40 Housing Crash: Could Prices Fall 40%?
9:17 How the Fed Fueled the Housing Bubble
10:29 AI Bubble: The Next Dot-Com Crash?
12:41 Deflationary Crash Before Massive Money Printing
13:13 Zano: Financial Privacy & Confidential Cryptocurrency (Sponsor)
15:06 Private Credit: The $3 Trillion Hidden Risk
17:20 CoreWeave: AI Debt & Default Risk
18:23 Nvidia's Vendor Financing: Dot-Com Warning Signs
27:59 Oil Shock: Is the Fed Making a Huge Mistake?
32:28 Sovereign Debt Crisis, Fiscal Dominance & the Dollar
34:22 Gold, a New Monetary System & $10,000 Prediction
39:49 COVID, Excess Deaths & Vaccine Concerns
47:26 Fertility, Turbo Cancer & Public Health Questions
51:55 AI Regulation, Government Control & Monopoly Risk
52:54 Moderna's Cancer Vaccine & Stock Price
I sat down with @DowdEdward, former BlackRock portfolio manager, founding partner of Phinance Technologies, and bestselling author of Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022.
DrawingStreet experience, including the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, Ed explains why he sees alarming similarities between today's AI investment boom and previous speculative bubbles.
We explore the nearly $3 trillion private credit market, the growing reliance on debt to finance AI infrastructure, Nvidia's vendor financing arrangements, and warning signs emerging from companies like CoreWeave. Could the unraveling of the AI financing boom trigger a much larger financial crisis?
Ed also explains why he anticipates a deflationary crisis followed by massive Federal Reserve money printing, potentially setting the stage for another wave of inflation.
Later, we discuss his bestselling book Cause Unknown, his research into excess mortality, disability, cancer trends, and declining fertility rates in the wake of COVID-19, as well as his concerns about vaccine safety and the importance of individual freedom in an increasingly centralized world.
For more of Ed Dowd's financial analysis, economic research, and commentary, explore the links below:
Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative: substack.com/@eddowdbeyondt…
Phinance Technologies: phinancetechnologies.com
Ed Dowd's Official Website: eddowd.com
Follow Ed on X: @DowdEdward
Want financial privacy? Check out my favorite privacy coin @zano_project
You can buy Zano seamlessly on MEXC using a VPN, or browse the full list of exchanges where Zano is available here: zanolist.com/exchanges
You can also find educational content, tutorials, and interviews on the official Zano YouTube Channel: youtube.com/@zanoproject
0:00 Ed Dowd: Wall Street Fraud & Financial Crises
5:02 Is Another Stock Market Crash Coming?
6:45 The Next Financial Crisis: 3–12 Months?
7:40 Housing Crash: Could Prices Fall 40%?
9:17 How the Fed Fueled the Housing Bubble
10:29 AI Bubble: The Next Dot-Com Crash?
12:41 Deflationary Crash Before Massive Money Printing
13:13 Zano: Financial Privacy & Confidential Cryptocurrency (Sponsor)
15:06 Private Credit: The $3 Trillion Hidden Risk
17:20 CoreWeave: AI Debt & Default Risk
18:23 Nvidia's Vendor Financing: Dot-Com Warning Signs
27:59 Oil Shock: Is the Fed Making a Huge Mistake?
32:28 Sovereign Debt Crisis, Fiscal Dominance & the Dollar
34:22 Gold, a New Monetary System & $10,000 Prediction
39:49 COVID, Excess Deaths & Vaccine Concerns
47:26 Fertility, Turbo Cancer & Public Health Questions
51:55 AI Regulation, Government Control & Monopoly Risk
52:54 Moderna's Cancer Vaccine & Stock Price
13
35
232
69,683
Sam just gave more ammo to one of the conspiracy theories out there: That shortages in chips would lead to calls for the peasants to no longer have access to their own computers and would have to rent compute.
Sam is an PR nightmare.
I don’t subscribe to the above conspiracy theory because I believe in boom bust cycles in commodities which eventually take care of themselves.
Sam is an PR nightmare.
I don’t subscribe to the above conspiracy theory because I believe in boom bust cycles in commodities which eventually take care of themselves.
🦔Sam Altman says it’s “quite terrible” for regular people to keep so much memory in their own computers. He told the Cheeky Pint podcast that home PCs only use their RAM about 5% of the time. In his view, the world’s limited supply of memory does more good in the cloud.
My Take
ay Intel blamed expensive memory for a drop in PC sales. My car stays parked for most of the day too, and I’m not selling it to rent one by the hour.
OpenAI earns its money when you rent its computers instead of using your own, so of course Altman wants the memory in his data centers. I think he worries about local AI more than he lets on, because people who run good models at home have less reason to pay for ChatGPT.
Hedgie🤗
126
227
1,218
49,900
Edward Dowd retweeted
We can’t read minds, we can only look at outcomes. Kennedy has failed and here’s my investigation into why. Part II of The MAHA Empire follows weeks of interviews with multiple campaign insiders. Link in comments.
31
109
356
22,795
If this is accurate Mark Walters has a problem. Liquidity tide receding. substack.com/@eddowdbeyondt…
Josh Kushner is still $5-6 BILLION short on the Lakers deal and Bob Iger is only putting in "like 63 million dollars," per @BillSimmons
"I think they're using the Buss family as scapegoats for why the deal's dragging along, but he can't find the money."
5
31
156
17,228
Unlike past sell offs which were more extreme sentiment and oversized position liquidations from hedge funds this is fundamental earnings related selling. Fundamental long only guys are likely in the mix.
Tom Lee citing the classic bagholder refrain of "someone getting liquidated" on CNBC today
Still in the denial phase...
17
23
322
25,284