Declan Hurley retweeted
Some Saturday Morning Wisdom from America’s 30th president:
“We do not need more material development, we need more spiritual development. We do not need more intellectual power, we need more moral power. We do not need more knowledge, we need more character. We do not need d more culture. We do not need more law, we need more religion. We do not need more of the things that are seen, we need more of the things that are unseen." - Calvin Coolidge
“We do not need more material development, we need more spiritual development. We do not need more intellectual power, we need more moral power. We do not need more knowledge, we need more character. We do not need d more culture. We do not need more law, we need more religion. We do not need more of the things that are seen, we need more of the things that are unseen." - Calvin Coolidge
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Declan Hurley retweeted
The pattern is unmistakable.
Every time the government tries to spend to make something more affordable, it just raises the cost.
Look at this chart every time a socialist promises they will spend their way out of our affordability crisis.
Every time the government tries to spend to make something more affordable, it just raises the cost.
Look at this chart every time a socialist promises they will spend their way out of our affordability crisis.
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“If 2024 Trump voters hold at 89% for Paxton, the going consensus, this electorate produces Paxton +3.”
Right on cue, my model currently has @KenPaxtonTX leading by 2.43 points.
Here’s the most recent release:
fdlreview.com/2026/10/fdl-mo…
Right on cue, my model currently has @KenPaxtonTX leading by 2.43 points.
Here’s the most recent release:
fdlreview.com/2026/10/fdl-mo…
Reviewing Texas registrants, with each voter’s 2026 ballot status through Oct. 27, turnout history, and modeled party.
The early electorate is R+2 on modeled party. The full 2022 electorate was R+12; 2024 was R+9. White voters are 55% of early voters, down from 62% in 2022.
Democrats have banked more of their expected vote. Lean Democrats have reached 83% of their 2022 turnout, Strong Democrats 73%.
Strong Republicans are at 62%, Lean Republicans 57%.
Under 30 voters have already matched their entire 2022 turnout.
But the pool still available is R+17 to R+20 on modeled party and 52 to 62% White depending on who turns out. Republicans have a substantial reserve, and the later days of early voting have run more Republican than the first.
Project the remainder using either the 2022 or 2024 turnout pattern and the final electorate lands at R+8 to R+10. That holds whether total turnout is 8.7 million or 10.6 million. The shape of this electorate is largely set.
Scored on its 2024 presidential vote, that electorate backed Trump by 12 to 14 points. Composition alone moves the margin a point or two toward Democrats, not ten.
So how does that square with public polls showing Talarico ahead by about 2 and Abbott by 3 or 4? Only through switching. If 2024 Trump voters hold at 89% for Paxton, the going consensus, this electorate produces Paxton +3.
A Talarico lead needs 13 to 15 points of net movement among 2024 Trump voters, or a final electorate several points bluer than its 2024 vote suggests. Abbott leading in the same polls tells you the movement is specific to Paxton: same voters, different candidate, five points apart.
Early vote trackers tell us who is showing up. They cannot tell us how those voters are choosing. That is what we have been measuring this week, among early voters and among the voters still to come.
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The penultimate release of my election model has Republicans up to 51 Senate seats, with @DanSullivan_AK, @hinsonashley, @SenSusanCollins, and @KenPaxtonTX all in the lead.
But Democrats are up to 229 House seats and 27 governorships.
fdlreview.com/2026/10/fdl-mo…
But Democrats are up to 229 House seats and 27 governorships.
fdlreview.com/2026/10/fdl-mo…
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Declan Hurley retweeted
The final 2026 US budget is out…
One of the great political moves by the left in recent years has been convincing a large portion of America that we don’t already spend the vast majority of our money on healthcare and entitlement programs.
One of the great political moves by the left in recent years has been convincing a large portion of America that we don’t already spend the vast majority of our money on healthcare and entitlement programs.
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Some helpful context for early voting numbers: YouGov's just-released poll indicates that 18% of Democratic registered voters have already voted, compared to 5% of Republicans.
Cc: @JasonCorley78, @PatrickRuffini
Cc: @JasonCorley78, @PatrickRuffini
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This poll from St. Anselm is the very first to show @JDVance *not* leading in the 2028 New Hampshire primary.
He has steadily crashed in St. Anselm's polling, going from a 48-point lead in August 2025 to a 19-point lead in March 2026 to a tie now.
Cc: @KarlRove, @FrankLuntz
He has steadily crashed in St. Anselm's polling, going from a 48-point lead in August 2025 to a 19-point lead in March 2026 to a tie now.
Cc: @KarlRove, @FrankLuntz
St Anselm poll | 10/19-10/20 LV
Republican presidential primary 2028 (New Hampshire)
🟥JD Vance 38%
🟥Marco Rubio 38%
🟥Ron DeSantis 5%
🟥RFK Jr 4%
🟥Glenn Youngkin 1%
🟥Ted Cruz 1%
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Roy Cooper would vote down originalist nominees.
He'd support the next Democratic president's progressive nominees, allowing the left to rewrite the law.
Worse yet, he'd probably vote to expand the Supreme Court. That is a risk North Carolina can't afford to take!
Cc: @mrddmia
He'd support the next Democratic president's progressive nominees, allowing the left to rewrite the law.
Worse yet, he'd probably vote to expand the Supreme Court. That is a risk North Carolina can't afford to take!
Cc: @mrddmia
The next US Senator from North Carolina will have the chance to vote on confirming a Supreme Court Justice. Vote accordingly.
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Kansas Democratic Senate Candidate Breaks Fundraising Record, Holds 3-Point Poll Lead Over GOP Opponent
This article came out 10/12/2020. Of course, @RogerMarshallMD won this election by 11.4 points.
Different election, same narrative. @AriFleischer
newsweek.com/kansas-democra…
This article came out 10/12/2020. Of course, @RogerMarshallMD won this election by 11.4 points.
Different election, same narrative. @AriFleischer
newsweek.com/kansas-democra…
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I'd wager good money that N.C. polls are dramatically underestimating @WhatleyNC. Indeed, my model has him within 6 points of victory.
Remember that only *two* of the 29 polls with field dates in October or November 2020 showed @ThomTillis ahead. Tillis ended up winning by 1.8.
Remember that only *two* of the 29 polls with field dates in October or November 2020 showed @ThomTillis ahead. Tillis ended up winning by 1.8.
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FDL Model (10/18/26): House 228–207 Dem; Senate 50–50 GOP; Governorships Tied 25–25
Link below. Reposting because the link was broken and the maps were blurry.
Link below. Reposting because the link was broken and the maps were blurry.
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"[W]e have Paxton up by 2.57 points. . . . GOP Senate candidates in Texas outperformed their polls in 2020 and ’24, and Paxton outperformed his in both the 2022 attorney general race and his 2026 Senate primary."
Cc: @JasonCorley78, @KenPaxtonTX
fdlreview.com/2026/10/fdl-mo…
Cc: @JasonCorley78, @KenPaxtonTX
fdlreview.com/2026/10/fdl-mo…
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"[W]e have Paxton up by 2.57 points. . . . GOP Senate candidates in Texas outperformed their polls in 2020 and ’24, and Paxton outperformed his in both the 2022 attorney general race and his 2026 Senate primary."
Cc: @KenPaxtonTX
Cc: @KenPaxtonTX
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Declan Hurley retweeted
35 YEARS AGO TODAY, Justice Clarence Thomas was confirmed by a vote of 52-48 after the Democrats launched an all-out war to destroy him.
They failed spectacularly. Despite the most vicious smears and lies, Justice Thomas never backed down.
In a legendary exchange during the homas was told by Senator Hatch that there were rumors that he was going to withdraw, Justice Thomas said, “I would rather die than withdraw. If they’re going to kill me, they’re going to kill me . . . I’d rather die than withdraw from the process, not for the purpose of serving on the Supreme Court but for the purpose of not being driven out of this process... I’ve never run from bullies. I never cry uncle and I’m not going to cry uncle today whether I want to be on the Supreme Court or not.”
God Bless Justice Thomas for his courage and perseverance in the face of such an outrageous assault.
Justice Thomas is now our second longest serving Justice in American history, and more important, he has had more impact on American jurisprudence than any Justice in history. His opinions have led the way in returning the Court’s jurisprudence to the Constitution’s original meaning.
Justice Thomas is an American hero and our nation’s greatest justice.
They failed spectacularly. Despite the most vicious smears and lies, Justice Thomas never backed down.
In a legendary exchange during the homas was told by Senator Hatch that there were rumors that he was going to withdraw, Justice Thomas said, “I would rather die than withdraw. If they’re going to kill me, they’re going to kill me . . . I’d rather die than withdraw from the process, not for the purpose of serving on the Supreme Court but for the purpose of not being driven out of this process... I’ve never run from bullies. I never cry uncle and I’m not going to cry uncle today whether I want to be on the Supreme Court or not.”
God Bless Justice Thomas for his courage and perseverance in the face of such an outrageous assault.
Justice Thomas is now our second longest serving Justice in American history, and more important, he has had more impact on American jurisprudence than any Justice in history. His opinions have led the way in returning the Court’s jurisprudence to the Constitution’s original meaning.
Justice Thomas is an American hero and our nation’s greatest justice.
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Excellent article explaining Nathan v. Alamo, why “the Fifth Circuit’s opinion should be seen as an originalist masterwork,” and why NDLS’s RLC has erred in backing petitioners.
Notre Dame Law's religious liberty clinic wrongly supports the ACLU's SCOTUS petition to keep the Ten Commandments off Texas classroom walls. It misreads the Religion Clauses. A poster compels no one. Attendance is required. Attention is not. My rebuttal: ncregister.com/commentaries/a…
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Declan Hurley retweeted
Congratulations to Independent Institute Senior Fellow Judy Shelton @judyshel on her appointment as Counselor in the Office of the Secretary at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where she will advise on currency policy.
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