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Histrionic Election Analysts Soon to Face Wednesday Morning: My Final Election Prediction for 2026. x.com/i/article/2114…
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I am going live on YouTube at 6:30pm CST. Link below.
Why I voted Republican: My Final Prediction for 2026.
youtube.com/live/5JOfZPq-r…
Why I voted Republican: My Final Prediction for 2026.
youtube.com/live/5JOfZPq-r…
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I will have a new episode of The David Chapman Show out by the end of tonight.
It will be on "Why I voted Republican."
It will be on "Why I voted Republican."
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Keshel and Data Republican see two very different things happening in Texas.
Only one of these went in a schizo meltdown accusing the DOJ of setting her up to have her arrested for espionage and then teamed up with leftists like Thomas Massie
Only one of these went in a schizo meltdown accusing the DOJ of setting her up to have her arrested for espionage and then teamed up with leftists like Thomas Massie
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In 2022, Republicans started with 213 seats and gained 9 seats.
We called it a red trickle.
What makes 2026 different? Why would a 15 seat net gain be a blue wave?
Because of redistricting? Because there was redistricting efforts between 2021 and the 2022 election.
We called it a red trickle.
What makes 2026 different? Why would a 15 seat net gain be a blue wave?
Because of redistricting? Because there was redistricting efforts between 2021 and the 2022 election.
@DavidD_Chapman Disagree on your view of history in the House as you can't compare elections where the minority already has 215 seats with historic gains imo. If Dems hit 230+ it is equivalent to 2018 with redistricting imo. Highly doubt they can hit 230+ though. Subject to change picks below.
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This is only a net gain of 14 seats for Democrats.
This is not a wave. You can cry about redistricting but redistricting has existed longer then rock music.
A real wave overcomes partisan gerrymandering. The gerrymandering in 2008 & 2010 saved no one.
This is not a wave. You can cry about redistricting but redistricting has existed longer then rock music.
A real wave overcomes partisan gerrymandering. The gerrymandering in 2008 & 2010 saved no one.
CBS/YouGov US House estimate
✅🟦Democrats: 229
🟥Republicans: 206
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In the last 2 weeks polling in the Senate Races have shifted drastically towards Republicans.
On RCP, Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Michigan the democrat candidate's lead has fallen under 2pts.
And in Iowa, Ashley Hinson has taken the lead.
We've now reached the point where if the normal polling error happens, the Republicans will win every senate race expect North Carolina, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Also, Minnesota is questionable in this scenario.
But, the normal polling error could give Republicans 53 senators.
On RCP, Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Michigan the democrat candidate's lead has fallen under 2pts.
And in Iowa, Ashley Hinson has taken the lead.
We've now reached the point where if the normal polling error happens, the Republicans will win every senate race expect North Carolina, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Also, Minnesota is questionable in this scenario.
But, the normal polling error could give Republicans 53 senators.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Nine days to go.
Please, Republicans—get out and vote!
Please, Republicans—get out and vote!
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David D. Chapman retweeted
This is just another data point that suggests that if Trump and the Republicans can turn out these uncertain voters then there’s a huge trough of them available that could literally swing the election
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My Maine Senate Prediction has always been Collins by 5pts
Maine Senate:
🔴 Collins 47%
🔵 Jackson 47%
@trafalgar_group, 1,077 LV, 10/21-23
thetrafalgargroup.org/news/me-senate…
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David D. Chapman retweeted
🚨 POLITICO: Internal polling shows Republicans narrowing the gap in the Midwest, while Democrats privately warn their gains could fall short of the party’s 2018 wave.
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Texas Senate Primary RCP aggregate overestimated Talarico's lead by 3.8pts and underestimated Paxton's lead by 20.7pts.
Democrat Primary
RCP Aggregate
🟦 Talarico 52.3 (+10)
🔵 Crockett 42.3
Final result
🟦 Talarico 52.4 (+6.2)
🔵 Crockett 46.2
Miss: Talarico overestimated by 3.8pts
GOP Primary Runoff
RCP Aggregate
🟥 Paxton 49.2 (+7)
🔴 Cornyn 42.2
Final Result
🟥 Paxton 63.8 (+27.6)
🔴 Cornyn 36.2
Miss: Paxton underestimated by 20.6pts
Democrat Primary
RCP Aggregate
🟦 Talarico 52.3 (+10)
🔵 Crockett 42.3
Final result
🟦 Talarico 52.4 (+6.2)
🔵 Crockett 46.2
Miss: Talarico overestimated by 3.8pts
GOP Primary Runoff
RCP Aggregate
🟥 Paxton 49.2 (+7)
🔴 Cornyn 42.2
Final Result
🟥 Paxton 63.8 (+27.6)
🔴 Cornyn 36.2
Miss: Paxton underestimated by 20.6pts
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David D. Chapman retweeted
Histrionic Election Analysts Soon to Face Wednesday Morning: My Final Election Prediction for 2026. x.com/i/article/2114…
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An under the radar Anthropic AI story.
The Elvis Presley Estate is suing Anthropic for copyright infringement.
Apparently, the AI company has been using Elvis Presley's music as part of their AI training.
rollingstone.com/music/music-ne…
The Elvis Presley Estate is suing Anthropic for copyright infringement.
Apparently, the AI company has been using Elvis Presley's music as part of their AI training.
rollingstone.com/music/music-ne…
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Texas Senate Primary RCP aggregate overestimated Talarico's lead by 3.8pts and underestimated Paxton's lead by 20.7pts.
Democrat Primary
RCP Aggregate
🟦 Talarico 52.3 (+10)
🔵 Crockett 42.3
Final result
🟦 Talarico 52.4 (+6.2)
🔵 Crockett 46.2
Miss: Talarico overestimated by 3.8pts
GOP Primary Runoff
RCP Aggregate
🟥 Paxton 49.2 (+7)
🔴 Cornyn 42.2
Final Result
🟥 Paxton 63.8 (+27.6)
🔴 Cornyn 36.2
Miss: Paxton underestimated by 20.6pts
Democrat Primary
RCP Aggregate
🟦 Talarico 52.3 (+10)
🔵 Crockett 42.3
Final result
🟦 Talarico 52.4 (+6.2)
🔵 Crockett 46.2
Miss: Talarico overestimated by 3.8pts
GOP Primary Runoff
RCP Aggregate
🟥 Paxton 49.2 (+7)
🔴 Cornyn 42.2
Final Result
🟥 Paxton 63.8 (+27.6)
🔴 Cornyn 36.2
Miss: Paxton underestimated by 20.6pts
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I will be releasing an X article today breaking down both my Senate and House final predictions.
Stay tuned.
Stay tuned.
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Link to article
Histrionic Election Analysts Soon to Face Wednesday Morning: My Final Election Prediction for 2026. x.com/i/article/2114…
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Link to article
Histrionic Election Analysts Soon to Face Wednesday Morning: My Final Election Prediction for 2026. x.com/i/article/2114…
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