$AAPL has outperformed $NVDA over the past year by 15 pts, and it has led on a rolling 1-yr basis since Semis peaked in June.

History says that’s normal when markets get nervous.

So when does $NVDA take the lead again? Watch Episode 1 of The J-Score!
youtube.com/watch?v=gZbgA8…

In our latest video, we compare $AAPL and $NVDA to show how markets reward sustaining versus disruptive innovation, and what that means for both stocks and the AI trade going forward. Watch below!

Here’s When Nvidia Beats Apple Again youtu.be/gZbgA8e-MtA?si… via @YouTube

DataTrek's Nick Colas and @Downtown unpack S&P 500 valuations, the earnings revisions fueling this year's gains, and three possible paths to new highs in our latest episode. Watch below!

youtu.be/WaKDHRCC3NE?si…

DataTrek's Nick Colas and @Downtown explain why rising real yields (not inflation) are pushing long-term Treasury rates higher and what that means for stocks in our latest video. Watch below!

youtu.be/WaKDHRCC3NE?si…

1/3 Tech's outperformance over Health Care hit a historic extreme in June, and that gap has already started closing, with Health Care up sharply since...

Respondents to our 2H 2026 Investor Sentiment Survey are confident AI CapEx will pay off in the near(ish) future. Maybe because most already use more than one AI tool at work themselves.

Full breakdown in our new video 👇

youtu.be/GHXwepcTovE?si…

Be sure to check out our video summary of DataTrek's Mid Year Investor Sentiment survey! +400 responses, 14 questions, 2 bullish conclusions and 1 area of concern. Hit the link to watch. You'll be glad you did.

youtu.be/GHXwepcTovE?si…

We shared the results of our DataTrek 2H 2026 Investor Sentiment Survey in our latest video. Our readers weighed in on their macro outlook (bullish), which asset class they like most for 2H (US stocks), and their favorite Big Tech stock. Watch below!

youtu.be/GHXwepcTovE?si…

US Big Tech's performance edge over the S&P 500 has averaged +30.5 points in any given rolling 1-year holding period since 2015. But each peak has been smaller than the last as uncertain AI returns are very different from buyback-centric uses of cash flow.

We sat down with the always thoughtful @Downtown to chat about the seemingly recession-proof US economy and how that resilience powers everything from the AI trade to inflation. Check it out below!

youtu.be/tE4Z1TscZgU?si…

New WDWL episode is live w/ @Downtown @TheCompoundNews🎙️

Why the US economy has gotten unusually recession-resistant, what it means for Kevin Warsh's Fed, and our 2H 2026 Tech outlook — including where capital rotates next.

Watch + like below 👇

youtube.com/watch?v=tE4Z1T…

New episode w/ @Downtown @TheCompoundNews 🎥

Why the US economy has gotten unusually recession-resistant — and what that means for Warsh's Fed before tomorrow's testimony. Plus our 2H 2026 Tech outlook & where Tech capital rotates from here.

youtube.com/watch?v=tE4Z1T…

Tech just flashed a signal it hasn't shown since right before the Dot Com crash.

Watch our 2H 2026 Tech Outlook before you make a move. 🎥👇

Tech's Most Extreme Signal Since the Dot Com Bubble youtu.be/B8VlbT8tZ2U?si… via @YouTube

We just put out a video on our 2H 2026 Tech outlook. Check it out!

Tech's Most Extreme Signal Since the Dot Com Bubble youtu.be/B8VlbT8tZ2U?is… via @YouTube

Tech’s 100-day outperformance vs S&P just hit levels last seen Jan 2000 — 2 months before the Dot Com bust.

New video breaks down why, what history says, and where the money rotates next. 👇​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

youtu.be/B8VlbT8tZ2U?is…

Tech's 100-day outperformance vs the S&P 500 recently hit its most extreme level since Jan 2000, two months before the Dot Com Bubble burst.

But that’s not a “sell everything call”. Watch why in our latest video! youtube.com/watch?v=B8VlbT…

3 charts every tech investor needs to see:

1️⃣ Why Tech's outperformance fades in Q3

2️⃣ Year 4 of the Nasdaq's streak, historically

3️⃣ Semis vs Big Tech earnings revisions — and where money rotates in 2H26

New video ⬇️🎥

youtube.com/watch?v=B8VlbT…

1/2 Average S&P 500 sector price return correlations to the index closely mirror investor confidence and can highlight periods of excessive optimism/pessimism.  By this measure, bullishness is extremely high right now...

1/2 The Russell 2000 has been reliably outperforming the S&P 500 for almost a year, and we continue to believe an index-weight (14%) allocation to small caps is a sensible approach for domestic portfolios...

Earnings growth drove S&P 500 gains in 1H 2026.  Valuation improvement needs to take over now.  Industrials look richly valued here, while Financials appear attractively cheap.

$XLI $XLF

1/2 As the AI trade widens out, it has driven US Big Tech's correlation with the S&P 500 to its lowest level since 2017, suggesting investors are increasingly focused on company-specific AI fundamentals rather than macro risks...

For the first time this year, one can justify a bullish view on the S&P 500 using simply consensus earnings estimates and a historically average PE ratio. Against these modest assumptions, the index has 8% upside from here.

We just dropped a video on the hottest topic in finance right now 🔥 How to use prediction market probabilities to quantify what's embedded in other assets: oil prices, a potential $TSLA/ $SPCX merger, and the AI IPO overhang.

youtube.com/watch?v=qUYq9w…

1/2 Since 1928, US large cap stocks have always generated positive nominal and real returns over 20 calendar year holding periods, although the results have been anywhere from +2.6/+0.6% (1929 – 1948) to +17.7/+13.7% (1980 – 1999)...

Check our latest video if you are a prediction markets skeptic. We think it will change your mind, or at least help you see the other side of the argument about this important new market.

What Polymarket Says About Oil, SpaceX/Tesla, and the AI IPO Race youtu.be/qUYq9w9mDOc?is…

We have a new video about what is easily the hottest topic in finance just now: how to use prediction market-based probabilities to quantify expectations embedded in other asset classes. Watch below!

youtu.be/qUYq9w9mDOc?is…

We explain why prediction markets matter for every public equity investor - even those who will never place a single bet on one - in our latest video. Check it out!

What Polymarket Says About Oil, SpaceX/Tesla, and the AI IPO Race youtu.be/qUYq9w9mDOc?si… via @YouTube

DataTrek's Jessica Rabe walks through Polymarket odds on Strait of Hormuz/oil price risk, the hidden merger premium in $TSLA's stock, and what the Anthropic vs OpenAI IPO race means for your AI trade positioning. Watch below!

youtube.com/watch?v=qUYq9w…

Single-B spreads today (2.83 points) are below both where they were a year ago (3.21 points) and their one-year average (3.08 points), a resounding vote of confidence in the American economy from this especially risk-wary part of the US corporate debt market.

The scale of 2026 and 2027 index earning revisions – both solidly double-digit percentages – is not just due to Tech, but consistent earnings beats across many sectors.  This was especially true in Q1 2026.

The equal-weighted large cap Tech sector index is outpacing its market cap weighted counterpart by the widest margin since the Pandemic-fueled speculative bubble of early 2021.

$XLK $RSPT

Tech's 100-day outperformance versus the S&P 500 recently hit its most extreme level since January 2000, a 3 standard deviation move.

$XLK

1/2 Average S&P sector correlations to the index reflect market confidence. By this measure, investors are very optimistic right now.  The only recently comparable period was mid-2024, going into a 9% correction caused by a yen revaluation/Nikkei flash crash...

1/2 The Nasdaq's current bull run is tracking its mid-1990s analog with remarkable precision & is now even pulling modestly ahead. The 2023 – present rally has weathered macro shocks that proved temporary, just as they did then...

US Google search volumes for @SpaceX are currently very close to the US stock market generally as well as #bitcoin. Retail interest in its IPO is every bit as intense as one would expect. Its effect on Day One/Week One returns is, however, unknowable.

DataTrek's Nick Colas/Jessica Rabe joined @Downtown on @TheCompoundNews to discuss the most extreme stretch of Tech outperformance in recent market history, the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, and how to spot when Tech has run too far like in 1999/2000.

youtu.be/ymc4q-oMEPo?si…

1/2 US large cap Tech recently outperformed the S&P 500 by +6 standard deviations over the prior 50 days.  No other rally since 2015 comes anywhere close. Prior periods of lesser but still statistically significant outperformance suggest further gains, even with Friday’s selloff...

US large cap Semiconductor stocks just delivered their strongest outperformance versus the S&P 500 in 25 years, even surpassing the sharp bear market rebounds in the early 2000s.

$SMH

1/2 The S&P has posted weaker compounded price returns from June – October (+120%) than January – May (+602%) or Nov – Dec (+310%). But, not being invested in the 5 months after May meant missing out on positive returns in most years...

1/2 US supercore inflation is stuck at levels well above both its 2010s average & the Fed’s target. It even saw an uptick last month, to 3.5% from March’s 3.4% & Feb’s 3.3%...

Two-year US Treasuries yield 32 bps more than Fed Funds, suggesting the possibility of rate hikes later this year. However, history shows this signal only becomes predictive at +50 bps.

1/3 The Nasdaq Comp has more than doubled over the last 3 years (+118.3%), but that return is nowhere close to the all-time high on March 27th 2000 (+296.8%)...

The difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields has been a reliable recession predictor since the 1980s. This relationship has broken down in the 2020s, however, and that suggests a much more resilient US economy.

1/2 The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold prices is a time-proven measure of investor confidence in human innovation. At its peak in 2000, the S&P traded for 5.5x an ounce of gold. Now, the ratio is 1.6x, the same as its 1970 – present average...

1/2 Rising inflation expectations embedded in 5-yr Treasuries (now 2.69%) are on the verge of exceeding 2023-present highs (2.71%). Meanwhile, real (ex-inflation) 5-yr yields are trending lower & well below their recent average (1.32 vs 1.68%)...

The Nasdaq is running the late-90s internet playbook. Macro shocks stall it, they don't end it. Secular tech bulls last longer than you think... getting out early is the bigger mistake. Watch below!

Nasdaq Still Eerily Tracking its 1990s Bull Run youtu.be/AOguCRJBdEQ?si…

The 90s are a clear reminder of the risk of exiting too early and missing outsized long-term gains from a truly disruptive, secular growth theme. Watch our latest video!

Nasdaq Still Eerily Tracking its 1990s Bull Run youtu.be/AOguCRJBdEQ?si… via @YouTube

In our latest video we have an update on a client favorite chart that shows how the Nasdaq’s rally of the last few years almost exactly follows its mid/late-1990s bull run.

Watch below!

youtube.com/watch?v=AOguCR…

The Nasdaq Comp is still closely tracking its mid- to late-1990s playbook, with the current AI-driven rally mirroring the earlier Internet-led bull market in both magnitude and path. Watch our latest update!

youtu.be/AOguCRJBdEQ?si…

Both US High Yield corporate bond spreads over Treasuries and the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index are back to below-average levels, a multi-market confirmation of reduced recession risk.

1/2 US corporate profits have been growing faster than the domestic economy since the year 2000. The relationship between the two sits at/near record highs today.  Some of this is certainly due to Big Tech’s global business models...

Six of the S&P’s eleven sectors are still up on the year, with Energy (+37.0%) and Materials (+10.2%) at the top of the heap.

Financials are still in the cellar (-9.9%), followed by Tech (-7.7%) and Communications (-5.8%).

$XLE $XLB $XLF $XLK $XLC

Check out our latest video on how to make money in volatile market environments like now below!

This Is Why You “Never Ever Ever” Sell Your Energy Stocks | WDWL youtu.be/_QmbUje6C1k?si…