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$AAPL has outperformed $NVDA over the past year by 15 pts, and it has led on a rolling 1-yr basis since Semis peaked in June.

History says that’s normal when markets get nervous.

So when does $NVDA take the lead again? Watch Episode 1 of The J-Score!
youtube.com/watch?v=gZbgA8…

In our latest video, we compare $AAPL and $NVDA to show how markets reward sustaining versus disruptive innovation, and what that means for both stocks and the AI trade going forward. Watch below!

Here’s When Nvidia Beats Apple Again youtu.be/gZbgA8e-MtA?si… via @YouTube

1/3 @AnthropicAI's expected $1.5 to $2 tn IPO valuation would put it on par with Big Tech from its first day of trading. At the top of its range, it would be worth more than $META, $TSLA, or $AVGO ...

2/3 ...At its $1.7 tn midpoint, ANT would eventually carry more weight in the MSCI ACWI than India, the world’s most populous country. It would also be worth about as much as the world’s largest virtual currency, which took twice as long to reach even $1 tn...

3/3 ...Going public will give investors a very visible, highly scrutinized view of AI’s true economic value.

1/3 @AnthropicAI's S-1 is a master class in how to write a bullet-proof risks section (+90 pages) but also reveals 3 notable facts. 1: ANT has yet to settle on the financial/operating metrics by which management will guide the enterprise...

2/3 ...2: While its current business model is asset light, that is set to change materially. 3: ANT already has a large cash hoard, so much of the IPO proceeds will likely go to existing shareholders or to satisfy stock grant tax liabilities...

3/3 ...In the end, ANT’s S-1 is a good reminder that AI will change everything except what makes for a winning stock.

1/2 Inflation adjusted, the proceeds from every US IPO in 1999 totaled $133 bn. $SPCX & @AnthropicAI alone will raise around $180 bn this year. The AI trade favors scale, for good and/or bad...

2/2 ...Worth knowing: $NVDA went public in 1999, so not every IPO at the Dot Com peak was a bad one.

1/2 Since our June 8th call to start shifting from Semis to Software, $IGV has outperformed $SMH by +26.0 points. That rotation is unwinding Semis’ record +84.1 point, nearly 6 sigma 100-day outperformance through May 13th, the most extreme divergence since 2010. This shift is...

2/2 ...broad-based: 9 of $SMH’s top 10 holdings are down over the last 100 days, while 9 of $IGV’s top 10 are up. The market priced in too much AI disruption for Software & too much earnings durability for Semis. We expect further Semis to Software rotation through year end.

1/2 The US large cap Tech sector is enjoying very high net margins relative to its recent history, but 6 other S&P sectors are also expected to post above-average profitability this quarter...

2/2 ....The S&P 500’s current net margin of 14.9%, much better than its 5-year average of 12.7%, is therefore not simply due to Tech earnings. Rather, it is a function of better corporate profitability across most groups.

The US corporate debt market is signaling macro worries, with the difference between High Yield and Investment Grade spreads at levels last seen in late March 2026, during the initial spike in oil prices at the start of the US/Iran conflict.

The risks section of @AnthropicAI's S-1 is about the same length as Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein (70k vs 75k words).

The S&P 500’s current forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.7x is the lowest since the March/April 2025 US trade policy crisis. A combination of high yields, elevated oil prices, and AI CapEx uncertainty is hurting investor confidence more than recent S&P price action shows.

Futures expect the Fed to hold rates steady at this week’s policy meeting but still discount 2-3 more hikes over the next year.

US Q3 earnings season continues to be lackluster as compared to Q1 and Q2 2026, with the only bright spot being a bit of incremental earnings leverage.  This week’s results need to be better.