Chaz Nuttycombe retweeted
Overall, the non-white share of the vote is way up against 2025. Most importantly, nonwhite turnout jumps most in CDs 1, 2, and 5 (deemed competitive seats). DEMs' efforts in getting nonwhite voters out in the seats that matter most are paying off.
1
4
30
3,877
Chaz Nuttycombe retweeted
Polling errors have not been consistent across states in recent midterms:
nytimes.com/2026/10/27/us/…
nytimes.com/2026/10/27/us/…
2
5
16
1,960
Chaz Nuttycombe retweeted
The Blacker the precinct in Virginia, the higher the turnout compared to 2025. By next week, we are looking at the highest share of the Black vote in a Virginia election in modern history.
18
156
725
45,472
Chaz Nuttycombe retweeted
Democratic internals in deep red districts be like:
VA-9 (Trump +44)
🔴 Morgan Griffith - 47%
🔵 Joy Powers - 43%
Conducted by SetMoneyOnFire Polling
10/18-10/23 (800 LV)
VA-9 (Trump +44)
🔴 Morgan Griffith - 47%
🔵 Joy Powers - 43%
Conducted by SetMoneyOnFire Polling
10/18-10/23 (800 LV)
7
13
478
24,820
Chaz Nuttycombe retweeted
CRYSTAL BALL: With a week left, 5 statewide rating changes:
#FLSen: Safe R -> Likely R
#NCSen: Leans D -> Likely D
#SCSen: Likely R -> Leans R
#AZGov: Leans D -> Likely D
#VTGov: Likely R -> Leans R
Plus 16 changes in the House.
From @kkondik and me: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/de…
#FLSen: Safe R -> Likely R
#NCSen: Leans D -> Likely D
#SCSen: Likely R -> Leans R
#AZGov: Leans D -> Likely D
#VTGov: Likely R -> Leans R
Plus 16 changes in the House.
From @kkondik and me: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/de…
39
176
998
349,520
Chaz Nuttycombe retweeted
The fundraising reports are in: Republican billionaire Rick Jackson has poured another $92.5 million of his own fortune into his campaign for Georgia governor since Aug. 1. His personal contributions now top $200 million. Polls show the race is a tossup. #gapol
Republican Rick Jackson hasn't yet disclosed his full fundraising report, but a recent filing shows he recently donated his campaign another $4.5M. He's now spent at least $115M of his own fortune on his bid for Georgia governor. #gapol
10
40
130
19,409
The Blacker the precinct in Virginia, the higher the turnout compared to 2025. By next week, we are looking at the highest share of the Black vote in a Virginia election in modern history.
18
156
725
45,472
Overall, the non-white share of the vote is way up against 2025. Most importantly, nonwhite turnout jumps most in CDs 1, 2, and 5 (deemed competitive seats). DEMs' efforts in getting nonwhite voters out in the seats that matter most are paying off.
1
4
30
3,877
Typo in the first post, sorry. I meant to say highest black share of a Virginia-OFF YEAR election. Not necessarily presidential but I could see the black vote being a higher % than what it was in 2024 but it'd be cutting it close.
All comes down...to turnout...
All comes down...to turnout...
1
0
28
2,875
Should the South Asian vote swing wildly to the left, as it seems will be the case this year, it's going to be not just due to perceptions of racism from right-wing folk this year against them, but also because they're small business owners being squeezed by the economy.
@DavidIRamadan put it very aptly: you can't look past that resentment if you're feeling the pain in your pocketbook.
This is not a Loudoun thing, just like how what happened in 2024 wasn't a Loudoun thing. If you're a Republican running in a district or state with a significant % or growing number of South Asians, wear a helmet. I'm particularly thinking of TX and GA here (no, our poll tomorrow in GA did not prompt this tweet).
@DavidIRamadan put it very aptly: you can't look past that resentment if you're feeling the pain in your pocketbook.
This is not a Loudoun thing, just like how what happened in 2024 wasn't a Loudoun thing. If you're a Republican running in a district or state with a significant % or growing number of South Asians, wear a helmet. I'm particularly thinking of TX and GA here (no, our poll tomorrow in GA did not prompt this tweet).
11
20
210
13,084
GA GOV / LG / AG / SOS / House poll out tomorrow, and this pretty much mirrors what we have in our EV in almost every single bracket.
GA Voted Early or Absentee as of 10/27/26 // 1,932,072
General Election
Modeled Party ID: Democratic 53.2% / Republican 38.2% / Nonpartisan 8.6%
Ages: 65+ 41.4% / 50-64 29.2% / 40-49 11.7% / 30-39 8.7% / 18-29 9.0%
Gender: Female 56.0% / Male 44.0%
Ethnicity: White-European n 35.1% / Unknown 6.4% / Hispanic & Portuguese 4.6% / East & South Asian 2.5% / Other 1.7%
Veteran: 3.2%
Additional Highlights:
-- Household size: 62.2% live in households of two to four people; two-person households are the largest group at 24.9%.
-- Phone availability: A phone number is available for 77.0% of records
-- Education: 45.9% are likely to have completed college or graduate school
See early data in all districts and states: early.l2datamapping.com
6
12
191
11,706
Chaz Nuttycombe retweeted
Never forget @JamesCarville’s famous phrase: “It’s the economy, stupid‼️”
Income growth is running 7–8% behind the cost of living in two districts in Virginia — that’s why they will flip from Rs to Ds.
And yes, this is on Trump and the current majority in Congress that nuous insanity.
We likely haven’t hit bottom yet. Two more years of a lame-duck narcissist — what could possibly go wrong?
More government shutdowns … more wars …
Income growth is running 7–8% behind the cost of living in two districts in Virginia — that’s why they will flip from Rs to Ds.
And yes, this is on Trump and the current majority in Congress that nuous insanity.
We likely haven’t hit bottom yet. Two more years of a lame-duck narcissist — what could possibly go wrong?
More government shutdowns … more wars …
“Six in 10 families can’t afford the basic cost of living in the battleground districts that will determine which party controls the House…”
washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…
5
5
18
2,885