The UK announced new measures in response to Israeli settlements.

"Banning the import of settlement goods and sanctioning those who facilitate settlement expansion are welcome, if long overdue, steps" says EVP @mattduss. The US should adopt similar measures, not resist them.

Waiting for election returns in Brazil? Read our Q&A with @MPaarlberg the return on Bolsonarismo and the hurdles before Lula despite material improvements in Brazilian lives internationalpolicy.org/publications/q…

It's not the economy, stupid: some comments on the Brazil election from my @newrepublic interview

CIP has joined the global call to end the prosecution of Mada Masr editor-in-chief Lina Attalah and protect independent journalism in Egypt.

"Egyptian authorities must end this prosecution and allow Lina and her colleagues to report freely," says @NancyGEO

Read the full statement, and the letter to which CIP is a signatory, here:

internationalpolicy.org/publications/c…

Will the U.S. and Israel attack Iran again? How will Tehran respond?

I joined @AJEnglish to discuss what comes next in the war as U.S. and Israeli elections draw closer.

Israeli settlement expansion & settler violence are out of control. The last 3 years saw 50,000 West Bank Palestinians forced from their homes by Israeli military operations, demolitions & settler terror attacks.

Now, dozens of lawmakers led by @JoaquinCastrotx are pushing back.

The next UN Secretary-General must defend international institutions and norms against the forces of autocracy and corruption.

@CIPolicy explains why Lana Nusseibeh, the public face of the UAE's denials of arming a genocide in Sudan, is the wrong choice: internationalpolicy.org/publications/c…

While long past time for a woman to serve as SecGen UN needs one who stands with "ordinary people caught in crossfire of conflict, catastrophe & instability – not one who has helped shield the wealthy & powerful" driving violence & suffering @NancyGEO
internationalpolicy.org/publications/c…

Read the full statement here internationalpolicy.org/publications/c…

👇 In my new piece published today for @CIPolicy, I examine the dangerous stalemate between the US and Iran, the options facing Trump, and why another major round of fighting could prove even more disastrous.

Both sides are currently locked in a costly war of attrition. ng its blockade, hoping economic pressure will force Iran to lopsided concessions or collapse.

Tehran, meanwhile, continues to restrict and attack shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, imposing mounting costs on the US, its allies, and the global economy.

Neither side is backing down. So what happens next?

Trump could maintain the blockade, betting that the balance of pressure favors Washington and that Iran will eventually buckle or collapse.

Or he could launch another major military offensive, hoping to inflict enough damage to force Tehran to surrender its nuclear stockpile and give up the lasting leverage it seeks over Hormuz.

But further attacks are likely to badly backfire.

The wars of 2025 and 2026 have fundamentally changed Tehran's strategic thinking. Iranian leaders now believe their previous relative restraint only invited more attacks, and that deterring more aggression requires imposing gradually increased and sustained costs on the US and its allies.

Another major US attack is therefore unlikely to force Iran to surrender. Instead, Tehran is likely to intensify its attacks on shipping and regional energy infrastructure, further driving up oil prices, disrupting global markets, and making the war even costlier for Washington.

Trump could also try to declare victory and walk away, perhaps after one final, largely symbolic strike. But even then, Iran would likely retaliate disproportionately rather than absorb another attack and risk signalling weakness and inviting further aggression down the road.

The alternative is a negotiated compromise, with meaningful concessions from both sides on sanctions, Hormuz transit, and the nuclear issue.

The central danger is that Washington continues to believe more pressure will eventually force Tehran to yield, when the war has actually made Iran more determined to resist coercion and impose costs, even as it remains open to reciprocal compromise.

Link to the full piece (no paywall): internationalpolicy.org/publications/w…

Absolutely illegal. The next Congress should not only hold hearings and investigate this, but issue subpoenas and seek to punish noncompliance. The next administration should prosecute all who violated the law.

Trump & US war planners misread Tehran as on the verge of collapse. Instead, Iran's leaders are now committed to match escalation with escalation until securing a negotiated settlement based on mutual concessions, argues @SinaToossi in @CIPolicyJournal internationalpolicy.org/publications/w…

Listen wherever you get podcasts

Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ord…
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Combatants from Europe to the Gulf are targeting energy, because they know gas prices freak out Trump.

New @OrderFromAshes pod with @mwhanna1 @zackcuyler Chris Newton and @rohadvani

U.S. Policy Haunted the Cluster Munition Convention Review Conference

Via @CIPolicy by Scoville Fellow '26 Allie Hansen of @WinWithoutWar Education Fund. internationalpolicy.org/publications/u…

Read @MPaarlberg's Q&A with the @CIPolicyJournal on Brazil's election internationalpolicy.org/publications/q…

In September, CIP Fellow Allie Hansen attended the 3rd Review Conference on the Cluster Munitions Conventions. Despite the US's formal absence, she found a field haunted by US policy, with brazen arguments about failure rates alongside survivor testimony. internationalpolicy.org/publications/u…

Read the full story here: internationalpolicy.org/publications/u…

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