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Business Decoder — $NBIS .
The AI-compute thesis that pulled people into the neocloud names is real. That's not the argument.
The argument's narrower: two numbers get cited as proof the business already works — positive operating cash flow, and a GAAP profit.
The cash is mostly customer prepayments. The profit is mostly a ClickHouse mark. Neither is the rented-GPU business. Strip both, the core ran a loss.
Not a reason to run. A reason to know what you own. 🧵
x.com/BizarCoin/stat…
The AI-compute thesis that pulled people into the neocloud names is real. That's not the argument.
The argument's narrower: two numbers get cited as proof the business already works — positive operating cash flow, and a GAAP profit.
The cash is mostly customer prepayments. The profit is mostly a ClickHouse mark. Neither is the rented-GPU business. Strip both, the core ran a loss.
Not a reason to run. A reason to know what you own. 🧵
x.com/BizarCoin/stat…
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Something to think about!
$ANT
$ANT
Revenue per GPU can increase as token prices decline if per GPU token throughput increases enough.
So both Anthropic revenue *and* margins can go up as token prices go down *if* GPU prices go up less than the product of (token price decline * per GPU throughput increase).
But I have super enjoyed all the commentary to the contrary!
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Claude Duet is an early research preview, available through a waitlist on Pro and Max plans in the US. It can still misjudge what’s urgent, and we’ll keep tuning it based on what early users tell us.
Join the waitlist: claude.com/product/claude…
Read more: claude.com/resources/arti…
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BIZAR retweeted
Claude Duet is an early research preview, available through a waitlist on Pro and Max plans in the US. It can still misjudge what’s urgent, and we’ll keep tuning it based on what early users tell us.
Join the waitlist: claude.com/product/claude…
Read more: claude.com/resources/arti…
Join the waitlist: claude.com/product/claude…
Read more: claude.com/resources/arti…
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What would be really helpful is if people could specify what they mean when they say "AI is a bubble": stock valuations, debt issuance, capex spend, token ROI... I just want to understand, so that we can have an educated discourse, rather than chanting slogans as if this was a football game. @TKL_Adam
BREAKING: Citadel founder Ken Griffin says AI is "almost certainly" a bubble, noting that companies are struggling to turn AI spending into productivity gains.
However, Griffin says he is bullish on AI's long-term potential.
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Very wise words and one simple answer:
Because there are still a ton of investors who missed the boat on AI and are too scared to just go long $NVDA at this point. Even though it’s a defensive trade in actuality.
Because there are still a ton of investors who missed the boat on AI and are too scared to just go long $NVDA at this point. Even though it’s a defensive trade in actuality.
Been obsessed with the stock market since I was a teenager. Have traded through the dotcom bubble, the financial crisis and just about every market mania since. But I’ve never seen anything like the skepticism surrounding AI. Not even close. Every time one bubble narrative falls apart a new one takes its place. Rumors become headlines. Misleading data goes viral. Claims that could be debunked with 5 minutes of research get repeated by major media outlets, influential investors and Wall Street analysts. It’s relentless and honestly pretty fascinating to watch. Of course there will be spectacular failures and massive wealth destruction along the way. That’s what happens during technological revolutions. But I’ve never witnessed this much effort to convince the world that something so transformative is actually one giant speculative bubble destined to take the entire economy down with it. I understand why AI scares people. What I find harder to understand is why so many investors seem to be rooting for it to fail.
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One thing is certain. It’s all on X.
Dear Secretary Bessent @SecScottBessent,
My name is Everett Stern. In 2010 I was a compliance officer at @HSBC. From a back office in New Castle, Delaware, I watched billions of dollars move to drug cartels, sanctioned regimes, and terrorist organizations. The enemies of the United States. I documented it, I escalated it, and when the bank would not act, I took it to the @FBI, the @CIA, and eventually the @SECGov.
The result was a $1.92 billion settlement. At the time, it was one of the largest in American history. It was also about five weeks of the bank’s profit. Not one banker was charged. Not one went to prison.
I paid a different price. I lost my career, my savings, and my place in the industry I had trained for. I was blacklisted. Every door in American finance closed at once. I slept on a camping cot in a 300 square foot apartment because I could not afford a bed, and I waited tables at @PFChangs to eat. I tell you this not for sympathy, but so you understand that I know exactly what it costs to do the right thing in American finance, and exactly how little the system does in return.
I made that sacrifice because I believed it would change something.
Yesterday, your department fined @BankofAmerica $1.2 billion for failing to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions, some of it tied by your own findings to Chinese laundering networks, narcotics, and the southwest border, alongside 475 apparent sanctions violations touching Russia, Iran, and global terrorism. The bank admitted it willfully violated the Bank Secrecy Act.
Fourteen years after HSBC. A bank with “America” in its name. And once again, not one individual charged.
Secretary Bessent, I want to say plainly what I believe you already know. The fines are not working.
A fine is paid by shareholders, absorbed by the balance sheet, and forgotten by the next earnings call. Bank of America reported earnings this morning. Nobody who set the alert thresholds, nobody who decided the 2024 cease and desist could wait, nobody who chose the backlog over the law will lose a single thing they value. Their lives are untouched. That is the entire reason the behavior repeats.
This is money laundering. This is blood money. Money that reaches a cartel buys fentanyl that kills Americans. Money that reaches a terrorist organization buys the next attack. This country has fought a war on drugs and a war on terror for decades, at enormous cost in lives and treasure, and all the while we have allowed the financing to flow through institutions we charter and regulate. Cut off the money and we win. We have never seriously tried.
There is also a question of equal justice that I cannot let go.
Before I walked into the FBI building to report HSBC, I stopped in front of the Great Seal on the wall and read the words engraved beneath it: “Justice is the defense of our liberty.” I believed that. I still want to. But every day in this country, people go to prison for crimes that are nothing next to moving money for the people who want Americans dead. A suit, a title, and a corporate badge should not be a shield from the consequences that apply to everyone else. If a street dealer goes to prison for what he sells, the banker who moved the cartel’s money should be standing next to him.
I also want to raise something that is rarely said in these conversations. Why has no one inside Bank of America come forward the way I did? The answer is that everyone in American banking knows what happened to me, and to the whistleblowers who came after. The last person who spoke up is the only policy anyone believes. That is a culture problem, and it starts with leadership, in the banks and in the agencies that regulate them.
This is not a political issue. It has spanned administrations of both parties. It is a national security issue, and I am asking you to treat it as one.
Three things would change the math overnight.
Refer individuals for criminal prosecution. Not the analyst in the queue. The executives who set the thresholds and chose the risk. One banker in handcuffs would do more than every fine in Treasury’s history combined.
End “too big to jail.” An institution cannot be too big to fail and too big to jail at the same time. If it is the first, it must be held to a higher standard, not a lower one.
And if Bank of America will not act as America’s bank, review its charter. A national charter is a privilege granted on behalf of the American people. It should be conditioned on not moving money for the people trying to kill them.
Secretary Bessent, you said yesterday that these actions send a clear message that even the biggest institutions are not above the law. With respect, the institution was never the problem. The people inside it are above the law, and they know it. Until that changes, I will keep writing letters like this one, and the next bank will keep paying the next fine.
I gave up everything I had to stop this. I am asking you to use the power you have to finish it.
Respectfully,
Everett A. Stern
HSBC Whistleblower
Founder and Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit
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An absolute must read from none other than @gregisenberg
If you’re into SI/AI and are curious about the current state of affairs, read this 👇🏽
If you’re into SI/AI and are curious about the current state of affairs, read this 👇🏽
I spent 48 hours in SF hanging out with billionaires, data labs and AI founders and execs running $1B to $100B companies.
My observations:
1. Sooo MANY stories of data brokers making like $2M a WEEK selling company data to labs. I can't tell if it's the beginning or a bubble, ich niches are left. Digging into it actively.
2. At dinner, someone asked the table, "If a new model drops next month, does your company get better or worse?" HALF the table went quiet! I think that's the best question to ask about any AI startup right now.
3. The bar people talk about now is hitting $1B in revenue in 12 months (I guess that's the new unicorn?). What I didn't hear much about is retention. AI revenue can come in fast and leave fast, and I think we're going to see a lot of stories of AI companies with huge revenue and terrible retention.
4. It's pretty clear we're living through the reinvention of the computer. The model is the CPU, the harness is the operating system, and skills and plugins are the apps. Thinking about it that way makes it easier to see where the whitespace is.
5. We're maybe 12 months from an agent that can watch you work for a week and then do your job without any instructions. The screen recording plus agent memory plus local model combination makes this possible right now.
6. Agent harnesses feel like the new GPT wrappers, in a good way, especially vertical ones. The best teams I talked to treat the model as swappable. One founder walked me through routing different models to different jobs: one for taste and visuals, a cheaper one for the everyday stuff, another for text.
They use prompts they can move across models over fine-tuning, and A/B test the output on what users actually do with it: do they edit it, export it, share it? A vertical harness is basically four things: the connectors for that industry's data, evals written by people who know the work, rules for what the agent can and can't touch, and a clean screen for a human to review. The model is maybe 20% of it.
7. There's a lot of reverse engineering going on/cloning going on more than I've ever seen. People are decompiling software and rebuilding it with agents, and someone showed a suite of like 10 apps that are worth $5B+ each all that he cloned open source. Me and everyone are still thinking through what it means when software gets this easy to copy.
8. My guess is the value moves to data. If the software can be rebuilt quickly, what's worth paying for in a legacy SaaS company is the years of customer data and workflows inside it. Some SaaS companies are secretly data companies.
Gets me thinking about how do you truly value data for this saas companies? Like if we were buying these dying saas companies at 2x ARR before (as example), maybe there is a better metric. Idk, just thinking out loud here.
9. It feels like a good chunk of legacy software won't make it to the agentic era, especially anything built around people clicking through a lot of screens.
10. Every company I talked to wants to pipe its internal data into one place and expose it to agents through MCP. Then they look at the data and realize it's a mess: five versions of the same customer, old Slack channels, PDFs nobody can search. Cleaning that up feels like a big consulting opportunity!
11. A lot of founders are building the basic building blocks for agents: APIs, data layers and tools. Some of the companies I saw barely have a UI because the main user is an agent. I really believe the startups that build primitives to this agentic era will do extremely well. Building blocks is the best way to think about it.
12. Labs can get plenty of training data, but it's harder to get real examples of agents failing inside companies. Whoever has those logs has something valuable.
13. Someone running a big consumer company told me the next fight is over memory. The model that remembers the most about you wins, and the smartest model matters less than people think.
14. Physical AI came up a lot. Astra I think was the first model that got people into AI can actually do CAD, and I think a lot of people are thinking what does vibe manufacturing really look like. The line I keep thinking about came from a robotics founder: the hardest problems in AI are deployment problems now, not research problems. Their robots work on their own, call a human when they get stuck, and every one of those calls becomes training data.
15. Cybersecurity companies are having a moment and are actually cool companies to build now, especially the ones that clean up after a breach. Every agent with access to your systems is a new door into your company, and a lot of those doors were left open.
16. Some startups are worth more dead than alive now. A shutdown company with 5 years of Slack, email and code can get paid for licensing all of it. I wouldn't be surprised if founders start factoring that into when they shut down.
17. People are starting to talk about monetizing the agent web. It feels really early, but when the most popular user of the internet is an agent, what startups should you be building?
18. I think agent insurance is coming. Once an agent makes an expensive mistake, insurers will want audits before they cover anyone.
19. Several people said the hire they want most is someone with taste who can write evals. The models are getting good at generating ideas, so the hard part is judging which ones are good.
20. New trend I observed: startup raises VC, uses venture dollars to become a creator, startup fails, founder falls back on being a full-time creator and incubates other products bootstrapped.
21. Getting SIGNIFICANT distribution is HARD right now. Founders are sponsoring buses, buying billboards like crazy and throwing parties with famous DJs to get noticed. Kinda feels dotcom era in that sense.
Attention is what's scarce! The growth guy going viral sharing his UGC strategy from Wispr Flow is a good example. It's the sauce everyone wants, and I truly believe there are probably only 50 people on the planet who know how to scale these types of businesses efficiently in this era.
Always good to get that dose of SF. I felt sooo lucky to have such an incredible trip during such an incredible time in building businesses. Surreal in so many ways.
Happy to be home and locked in.
Until next time!
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So apparently $1,899 wasn’t enough, @johnternus could have charged more.
Please don’t complain about inflation, my dear friends 🇺🇸
Please don’t complain about inflation, my dear friends 🇺🇸
Seriously, this actually works!
Think of Grok @bot like hiring a super smart employee who works 24/7 and is extremely resourceful.
You can use it through your phone effortlessly within minutes:
apps.apple.com/app/id67945010…
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Keeping up with AI right now is basically a 24/7 job. Unless you’re working for one of the AI firms, I don’t see how a human being could do it if he or she has a day job.
Claude Managed Agents dynamic workflows are now available in public beta. It's a new type of multiagent orchestration, built for your most ambitious workloads.
A lead agent writes a plan that runs across many agents in phases, combining the results at the end.
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The ongoing dynamic in AI is absolutely fascinating.
The flurry of model releases.
The capability jumps.
The efficiency improvements.
The valuation increases.
The race to IPO.
I will say this here so it’s on the record: just because models are twice as capable, powerful, efficient, autonomous… doesn’t make the company twice as valuable.
Long Fable 5.5 and whatever comes thereafter. Long capabilities. Short stock. That’s the play I see here.
It’s called Wilson‘s Law: If you prioritize knowledge and intelligence, money and success will follow naturally. If you try to get rich quick, you‘ll usually end up overpaying for class.
The flurry of model releases.
The capability jumps.
The efficiency improvements.
The valuation increases.
The race to IPO.
I will say this here so it’s on the record: just because models are twice as capable, powerful, efficient, autonomous… doesn’t make the company twice as valuable.
Long Fable 5.5 and whatever comes thereafter. Long capabilities. Short stock. That’s the play I see here.
It’s called Wilson‘s Law: If you prioritize knowledge and intelligence, money and success will follow naturally. If you try to get rich quick, you‘ll usually end up overpaying for class.
Fable 5.5 is going to be the biggest leap we have ever seen.
Anthropic's IPO is coming in November. They are going to build maximum momentum before it, and Fable 5.5 is how they do it.
OpenAI is not ready.
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The EU is really doing us a solid! Preventing us from Muse, preventing us from Dots.
Better safe and incapable… god forbid people could potentially have these agents file their taxes or start a business with them!
Better safe and incapable… god forbid people could potentially have these agents file their taxes or start a business with them!
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Rumors on X are spreading that Gemini 4 Pro will come with 2M context window and some capabilities that will redefine the perception of the frontier $GOOG
Mind you, Google has a whole eco system to leverage. Just saying, NFA
Mind you, Google has a whole eco system to leverage. Just saying, NFA
Accurate (for now)
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