Adam Kobeissi retweeted
We are in a “stealth” bear market.
For the first time in history, nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s components are in a bear market, while the index trades 3% away from a record high.
We think this is a historic opportunity.
@TKL_Adam joins @cvpayne on Fox Business to discuss our view.
For the first time in history, nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s components are in a bear market, while the index trades 3% away from a record high.
We think this is a historic opportunity.
@TKL_Adam joins @cvpayne on Fox Business to discuss our view.
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I am looking forward to joining the great Charles Payne, @cvpayne, on Fox Business today at 2:40 PM ET today.
We will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's recent viral article on the "Bear-Bull Market Paradox."
With the majority of S&P 500 components now down 20%+ from their highs, we believe the market has experienced a bear market beneath the surface, even as the S&P 500 continues to trade near record highs.
More to come in my discussion with Charles today.
Tune in LIVE at 2:40 PM ET!
We will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's recent viral article on the "Bear-Bull Market Paradox."
With the majority of S&P 500 components now down 20%+ from their highs, we believe the market has experienced a bear market beneath the surface, even as the S&P 500 continues to trade near record highs.
More to come in my discussion with Charles today.
Tune in LIVE at 2:40 PM ET!
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Our most common question right now: "How is the S&P 500 hitting record highs with $100 oil and rate hikes?"
Most people are surprised to hear that 59% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least -20% from their highs, 41% are down more than -30%, and 17% are down more than -50%.
We are in a "Bull-Bear Market," and we believe it's a highly compelling opportunity.
Read more on our latest analysis below.
Most people are surprised to hear that 59% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least -20% from their highs, 41% are down more than -30%, and 17% are down more than -50%.
We are in a "Bull-Bear Market," and we believe it's a highly compelling opportunity.
Read more on our latest analysis below.
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The top 1% of US households have gained +$31 trillion in net worth since 2020, now worth $60+ trillion.
Meanwhile, the bottom 50%, or ~67.4 million households, are worth just $4.3 trillion.
The US is facing its biggest wealth divide in history, and it's only going to get worse.
Meanwhile, the bottom 50%, or ~67.4 million households, are worth just $4.3 trillion.
The US is facing its biggest wealth divide in history, and it's only going to get worse.
The middle class is gone.
According to Fed data, the top 1% of Americans now control ONE-THIRD of all US net worth.
Since 2020, the top 1% have gained +$30 TRILLION in net worth, while the bottom 50% are worth just $4.3 trillion.
What is happening? Let us explain.
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The 10Y Note yield is now up nearly +30 basis points in 2 days.
Prior to the last 48 hours, the last time we saw a move of this magnitude was during “Liberation Day” in April 2025.
Prior to that, we had not seen a move like this since 2022.
What the bond market is doing right now is remarkable.
Prior to the last 48 hours, the last time we saw a move of this magnitude was during “Liberation Day” in April 2025.
Prior to that, we had not seen a move like this since 2022.
What the bond market is doing right now is remarkable.
It's official.
As the bond market "meltdown" accelerates, the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US is up to 7.45%.
That's up +150 basis points in 6 months and the highest since 2023, when inflation was at 6.4%+.
What is happening? Let us explain.
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Huge news.
President Trump appears to have confirmed our August 11th post regarding potentially imminent capital gains tax cuts.
We may soon see the first major federal capital gains tax cut since 2003, when the top long-term capital gains tax rate was reduced from 20% to 15%.
More to come on @KobeissiLetter.
President Trump appears to have confirmed our August 11th post regarding potentially imminent capital gains tax cuts.
We may soon see the first major federal capital gains tax cut since 2003, when the top long-term capital gains tax rate was reduced from 20% to 15%.
More to come on @KobeissiLetter.
BREAKING: President Trump posts a screenshot of our August 11th post regarding his reported capital gains tax cut discussions, including "indexing" capital gains for inflation before taxes are calculated.
It appears President Trump is actively considering capital gains tax cuts.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
BREAKING: President Trump posts a screenshot of our August 11th post regarding his reported capital gains tax cut discussions, including "indexing" capital gains for inflation before taxes are calculated.
It appears President Trump is actively considering capital gains tax cuts.
It appears President Trump is actively considering capital gains tax cuts.
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The growth of AI is being vastly underestimated.
At its core, Nvidia's earnings report confirmed that AI is not just growing. It's accelerating.
The company now sees its next-year sales growth surging to +70%, crushing already high expectations
This implies $673 billion in revenue next year.
Nvidia's growth has market-wide implications, and somehow, it still seems early.
Read our full analysis below.
At its core, Nvidia's earnings report confirmed that AI is not just growing. It's accelerating.
The company now sees its next-year sales growth surging to +70%, crushing already high expectations
This implies $673 billion in revenue next year.
Nvidia's growth has market-wide implications, and somehow, it still seems early.
Read our full analysis below.
Most people don't realize what just happened.
Nvidia just posted what we believe are the most impressive earnings in history, with market-wide implications.
This implies $670+ BILLION in revenue next year, up +2,390% from FY2023.
What's happening? Let us explain.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
What's happening now in gold and crypto should not come as a surprise.
If it does come as a surprise, you are likely not following the correct leading indicators.
This is the era of US Treasury intervention, elevated inflation, and record deficit spending.
Below is a clip of on Fox Business with @cvpayne exactly 37 days ago.
As gold fell below $4,000/oz, we began calling for a rally to $4,500+ as market conditions were clearly shifting.
Since then, gold has added +$4.5 trillion in market cap, Bitcoin is up +30%, and yields are roughly unchanged.
Keep following the leading indicators.
Asset owners are the only winners in this market.
If it does come as a surprise, you are likely not following the correct leading indicators.
This is the era of US Treasury intervention, elevated inflation, and record deficit spending.
Below is a clip of on Fox Business with @cvpayne exactly 37 days ago.
As gold fell below $4,000/oz, we began calling for a rally to $4,500+ as market conditions were clearly shifting.
Since then, gold has added +$4.5 trillion in market cap, Bitcoin is up +30%, and yields are roughly unchanged.
Keep following the leading indicators.
Asset owners are the only winners in this market.
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The most interesting part about today's US Treasury intervention is the way it was worded.
"Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes on November 4th."
This is just the beginning.
"Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes on November 4th."
This is just the beginning.
It's official.
On July 31st, we called for US government intervention as long-term borrowing costs hit 2008 levels.
Today, it happened. The US Treasury is DOUBLING buybacks to $4 billion per operation for "liquidity support."
What comes next? Let us explain.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
A historic rotation is underway.
On July 15th, @TKL_Adam joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000.
The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic earnagging the broader S&P 500 index lower.
This was the largest such divergence between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 since 2022.
Less than 3 weeks since this clip with @TKL_Adam and @cvpayne, the S&P 500 is now above 7,700, Microsoft and Amazon are up +25% in 5 days, and the S&P 500 is worth a record $70 trillion.
Many of these large cap technology names are now trading CHEAPER than the S&P 500 on a Forward P/E basis.
Ironically, many stocks in this market are getting cheaper as they go up.
Own assets or be left behind.
On July 15th, @TKL_Adam joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000.
The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic earnagging the broader S&P 500 index lower.
This was the largest such divergence between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 since 2022.
Less than 3 weeks since this clip with @TKL_Adam and @cvpayne, the S&P 500 is now above 7,700, Microsoft and Amazon are up +25% in 5 days, and the S&P 500 is worth a record $70 trillion.
Many of these large cap technology names are now trading CHEAPER than the S&P 500 on a Forward P/E basis.
Ironically, many stocks in this market are getting cheaper as they go up.
Own assets or be left behind.
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Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for 64-straight months.
Since March 2021, we have not had a single US CPI inflation print at or below 2.0%.
Fed Chair Warsh pledges to end this seemingly endless wave of inflation.
This goal has been explicit, the market knows Fed achieve this?
The recent surge in yields reflects exactly that, resulting in a paradox that sums it all up:
Uncertainty is at multi-year highs, yet no one wants bonds.
Since March 2021, we have not had a single US CPI inflation print at or below 2.0%.
Fed Chair Warsh pledges to end this seemingly endless wave of inflation.
This goal has been explicit, the market knows Fed achieve this?
The recent surge in yields reflects exactly that, resulting in a paradox that sums it all up:
Uncertainty is at multi-year highs, yet no one wants bonds.
The bond market situation is crazy.
While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007.
Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and mortgage rates could near 8%.
What's happening? Let us explain.
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What's happening in South Korea's stock market has truly been one of the most incredible things to witness in decades.
South Korea's KOSPI went from barely being in the top 15 largest stock markets to 6th in a matter of months, worth $5 trillion.
40 days later and nearly half of the country's market cap has been erased with an "emergency meeting" being convened by regulators.
The next few months will be for the history books.
Our outlook is summarized below.
South Korea's KOSPI went from barely being in the top 15 largest stock markets to 6th in a matter of months, worth $5 trillion.
40 days later and nearly half of the country's market cap has been erased with an "emergency meeting" being convened by regulators.
The next few months will be for the history books.
Our outlook is summarized below.
Absolutely incredible.
In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap.
Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market.
What is happening? Let us explain.
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Looking forward to joining the great Charles Payne, @cvpayne, today on Fox Business at 2:50 PM ET!
I will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's latest market outlook as we kick off the second half of 2026.
Lots to consider ranging from geopolitics, to AI, to interest rates.
Tune in LIVE at 2:50 PM ET!
I will be discussing @KobeissiLetter's latest market outlook as we kick off the second half of 2026.
Lots to consider ranging from geopolitics, to AI, to interest rates.
Tune in LIVE at 2:50 PM ET!
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It's rare to experience a time like we are experiencing now.
Both risk appetite and uncertainty are arguably at their highest levels in recent history.
These two phenomena rarely exist simultaneously and typically emerge during periods of transformative innovation.
Normally, investors do not seek risk exposure into uncertainty.
But, this time is different. Investors know AI is the "next big thing," but no one knows exactly where it all leads.
The result will be broader swings in the market amid historic innovation.
Capitalize on the volatility.
Both risk appetite and uncertainty are arguably at their highest levels in recent history.
These two phenomena rarely exist simultaneously and typically emerge during periods of transformative innovation.
Normally, investors do not seek risk exposure into uncertainty.
But, this time is different. Investors know AI is the "next big thing," but no one knows exactly where it all leads.
The result will be broader swings in the market amid historic innovation.
Capitalize on the volatility.
What just happened?
In just 27 minutes, the Nasdaq 100 just fell -1,000 points and the S&P 500 erased -$1 TRILLION without any major headlines.
The Nasdaq opened +1% higher then fell -3% between 9:30 AM and 9:57 AM ET.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
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Adam Kobeissi retweeted
The Youngest Gold Bug Likes Stocks, Too
"Making Money" Clips
Special Guest: @TKL_Adam
foxbusiness.com/video/63975651…
"Making Money" Clips
Special Guest: @TKL_Adam
foxbusiness.com/video/63975651…
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I am joining Charles Payne, @cvpayne, on Fox Business today at 2:30 PM ET to give an update on @KobeissiLetter's "own assets or be left behind" thesis.
Also discussing our outlook for the AI trade, S&P 500, gold, oil, and more.
We see an eventful second half of 2026 ahead.
Tune in LIVE at 2:30 PM ET!
Also discussing our outlook for the AI trade, S&P 500, gold, oil, and more.
We see an eventful second half of 2026 ahead.
Tune in LIVE at 2:30 PM ET!
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American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020.
The second half of 2026 is going to be interesting to say the least.
The second half of 2026 is going to be interesting to say the least.
Bond markets are flashing red.
Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%.
This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening.
What is happening? Let us explain.
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