Recently my daughter told me that she used to think that, at the climactic moment in ‘Let it go!’ instead of “I’m free!” Elsa was actually singing “Highbury!”
Proud #arsenal dad :)
Proud #arsenal dad :)
5
0
7
4,949
Bill Hanage @BillHanage.bsky.social retweeted
There is a lot of talk about claims about vaccinations increasing autism in the news lately, with a focus on MMR vaccines.
I hope anyone discussing these issues is aware of the existing scientific literature investigating such potential links that have been done since the work of Wakefield raised concerns about this question many years ago.
For example, this excellent Danish cohort study by Anders Hviid @anders_hviid and collaborators (he does great studies, BTW) published in Annals of Internal Medicine in 2019, investigating >650k children born in Denmark between 1999 and 2010, with follow up through August 2013.
They compared MMR vaccinated children with MMR unvaccinated children, using time to autism as the response and adjusting for potential confounders age, sex, birth year, other childhood vaccines, sibling history of autism, and autism risk factors.
They found absolutely no evidence for increased risk of autism after MMR vaccine in the Danish children, with hazard ratio of 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.02) [note, HR=1 means no difference, HR<1 means vaccinated lower risk of autism, HR>1 means vaccinated higher risk of autism].
The fact that the confidence interval contained 1 means effect was not statistically significantly less than zero, so the study cannot conclude that MMR vaccines reduce the risk of autism, but there is certainly no evidence at all or even of a suggestion they increase risk.
Personally, I think it is great if scientific researchers want to do additional studies looking claims like this with rigorous, well designed studies, but they should probably look at this paper and the others in the existing literature that have been done in the past 20 years to investigate this question to identify gaps in the literature that their studies can address to best use research and financial resources to address unanswered questions.
I hope people don't get the impression from any rhetoric online or in the media that this question has not been extensively studied already, because it clearly has, even if the studies did not give the results some were hoping to see.
proceedings.mlr.press/v238/katta24a/…
I hope anyone discussing these issues is aware of the existing scientific literature investigating such potential links that have been done since the work of Wakefield raised concerns about this question many years ago.
For example, this excellent Danish cohort study by Anders Hviid @anders_hviid and collaborators (he does great studies, BTW) published in Annals of Internal Medicine in 2019, investigating >650k children born in Denmark between 1999 and 2010, with follow up through August 2013.
They compared MMR vaccinated children with MMR unvaccinated children, using time to autism as the response and adjusting for potential confounders age, sex, birth year, other childhood vaccines, sibling history of autism, and autism risk factors.
They found absolutely no evidence for increased risk of autism after MMR vaccine in the Danish children, with hazard ratio of 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.02) [note, HR=1 means no difference, HR<1 means vaccinated lower risk of autism, HR>1 means vaccinated higher risk of autism].
The fact that the confidence interval contained 1 means effect was not statistically significantly less than zero, so the study cannot conclude that MMR vaccines reduce the risk of autism, but there is certainly no evidence at all or even of a suggestion they increase risk.
Personally, I think it is great if scientific researchers want to do additional studies looking claims like this with rigorous, well designed studies, but they should probably look at this paper and the others in the existing literature that have been done in the past 20 years to investigate this question to identify gaps in the literature that their studies can address to best use research and financial resources to address unanswered questions.
I hope people don't get the impression from any rhetoric online or in the media that this question has not been extensively studied already, because it clearly has, even if the studies did not give the results some were hoping to see.
proceedings.mlr.press/v238/katta24a/…
281
222
741
127,574
Bill Hanage @BillHanage.bsky.social retweeted
I wish that American schools had reopened in the fall of 2020, and been smarter about doing so (making more use of pooled or rapid testing, investing much more in indoor air quality and outdoor classrooms to limit spread). (1/x)
@mattyglesias Error #1 got a much bigger public hearing, though. Prolonged school closures in blue states are one of the most destructive policy positions of my lifetime from a util standpoint. The CW is basically to sheepishly admit they were bad but then not talk about them or cast blame.
70
40
584
368,351
Bill Hanage @BillHanage.bsky.social retweeted
Big if true
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
17
27
285
67,510
Important study in @CDCMMWR on evidence of prior infection with H5N1 among dairy workers in MI and CO. Results suggest many more such infections have been happening, but that they’ve been mild cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
1
3
23
6,944
And can’t really say anything about possible transmission. Would be interesting to know about symptoms among household contacts. Although these could easily have been caused by any of the many other viruses out there…
1
0
0
2,152
Finally a modest suggestion for how we might investigate transmission and get more information on the range of severity academic.oup.com/aje/article/19…
1
0
1
1,982
For all that I’m a big fan of Albert Camus, I think we should all be able to agree that Sisyphus is entitled to ask “what is it with rolling this bloody rock AGAIN?”
1
1
18
3,195
Bill Hanage @BillHanage.bsky.social retweeted
This November, we're spotlighting @CCDD_HSPH!
Led by @mlipsitch & @BillHanage, CCDD works to improve mathematical modeling & statistical methods for infectious disease data, while engaging policymakers & educating the public.
Follow us to learn about their work & initiatives!
Led by @mlipsitch & @BillHanage, CCDD works to improve mathematical modeling & statistical methods for infectious disease data, while engaging policymakers & educating the public.
Follow us to learn about their work & initiatives!
0
3
8
3,012
Looks like @RoryStewartUK is using a Lenovo thinkpad while @campbellclaret and everyone else on the coverage are apple users…
The divide is real
youtube.com/watch?v=sAmC9F…
The divide is real
youtube.com/watch?v=sAmC9F…
1
0
1
3,146
How to show you don’t understand casual inference without using the words ‘causal’ or ‘inference’
There are some confounders here, but the inflation thing is actually statistically significant! Each additional $100 of inflation in a state since January 2021 predicts a further 1.6 swing against Harris in our polling average vs. the Biden-Trump margin in 2020.
4
3
27
9,677
Just thinking, not for the first time, that “I’ll be your mirror” by the Velvets is the most moving love song I’ve ever heard. youtu.be/KGZWb1SIiR4?fe…
2
0
4
2,592
Paging @dieworkwear
I’ve been criticized my entire career for “overdressing” for work. But I will die on the hill that it’s more professional to show up as a scientist in a dress and heels than an ill-fitting free vendor shirt with a GFP-expressing cell and a Sigma Millipore logo on it.
0
0
3
2,713
I actually think the title of this is overblown
But this is blistering regardless.
nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/…
But this is blistering regardless.
nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/…
1
0
2
2,198