Looks like a cold night in Cleveland. 🥶⚾
Small sample size, but I thought this was interesting. In similar conditions at Progressive Field since 2022, scoring and HR production have been down, while walks have actually increased.
#MLB #Guardians #Rays #Basewinner

🛒⚾ Some pretty interesting data from the BWDB on how teams hit in what I call "Costco Parks" (closed-roof/dome stadiums).

So interesting, in fact, that I thought it was worth digging into and writing about, especially with the LCS underway.

Not exactly great for our LAD and her interesting piece of the handicapping puzzle!

basewinner.com/posts/the-cost…

#Dodgers #Guardians #MLBPlayoffs #Basewinner

Yammo be there!!

🌅⚾ Not a fan of the Dodgers day game — nothing like the sunset in October at Chavez Ravine.
I still like LAD to win today, but this was interesting enough to keep me off the Dodgers team total.
☀️ Before 6 PM AZ time at home this year: .680 OPS in 562 PA. That would rank around overall home numbers. 😬 Woof.
Maybe I’m making too much of it, but that’s why we have the database. 📊
📝 Note: the game counts overlap because some games had PAs on both sides of the 6 PM AZ cutoff.
#Dodgers #MLBPlayoffs

Mentioned this on the show today. With NBC back in the MLB postseason mix, I'm officially requesting the return of the classic NBC Game of the Week theme.
Absolute classic. ⚾🔥
Here's a trip back to the 1983 playoffs:
youtube.com/watch?v=W0qzJR…

Yeah your right - my bad I actually have him rated pretty good this year. scarred from 2022 and him being my Villain #1🦹

🏁⚾ FINAL WEEKEND: August Most Wins

On Aug. 1, the Basewinner simulation made PHI its #1 team:

⭐ 22.5% probability
📊 +344 BW fair
💰 +1100 market
Now: PHI 78.0% 🔥
🌵 AL West: HOU 45.5% / SEA 27.0% / TEX 24.6%
🏆 AL Central: KCR 66.4% / CLE 21.5% / CWS 12.1%

⏳ Four days. es.

Built Models. Real Edges.
basewinner.com/posts/august-m…

⚾ What a difference six days makes.

On Aug. 15, the Phillies were just 10.5% to win the August MLB Most Wins race.

Today: 52.5% 📈

Before August, PHI was our favorite play at +1100.

The coolest part? The new Basewinner Simulation Center lets us rewind the model and see anged:

🎯 22.5% → 10.5% → 52.5%

Same model. Same process. New information.

🔬 August MLB Most Wins: Six Days That Flipped the Simulation

basewinner.com/posts/august-m…

wow blast from the past - I'll give you one - how bout Chris Young 2015 Royals - one of my favorite villains

Really good question - my ratings numbers are what is fueling my optimism. Speaking of being optimistic - these should all be forward facing for next season

month of june wins BW Sims
PHL +1500, NYY +850 and CLE +2800 are good choices

This is what the month of May BW simulations say for Top5 for those who bet this market

Its a great question so thanks, but i can't think of a site that does this - here is top 15 from of times pinch hit (at least 10 GS) for as a pct of games started for this year that i just pulled so this may help

On @VSiNLive I grabbed Garrett Crochet +425 for AL Cy.

Elite bwERA, frontline stuff, and the workload narrative is already priced in.

If he holds innings, the ceiling wins this market.

Yes, I’m the double-glasses analytics dork. @beatingthebook can confirm. 😂

@dfsbachelor @kiiLkenny @CorbieBO You guys do the MVP stuff more than me so maybe i'm dreamin - but Barger odds look pretty good based on the stats

May want to follow what @dfsbachelor has to say. He has been great recently and has more silver than us - although he looks stoned here 😎

Just ran sims for September. NYY +1000 and SEA +1400 good plays and NYM +2500 for longshot $$

After all the trades and depth charts adjustment here is how the BW sims predict team with most wins prob and odds for August

Cubs have some value - good call

Thank you Scott really appreciate you watching over the years bbk is simply walks/strikeouts .20 or less is elite here is some more on it thanks again youtu.be/9G9vcaCMHG0?si…

For those who can play monthly MLB win markets, here is BW simulations for July

At Citizens Bank Park for a big #Phillies game. Wow this stadium is beautiful!! @dfsbachelor

What a great comeback for #dbacks -- they definitely have the inside track on the best record in June. So fun today. He Blewett!

This is what the BW simulations like for month of June - they liked PHI last month and that one looks like it is close

The #Dbacks showing up here is wild—at home, leading by 3+ after 5 innings, they’re just 6-4 in 2025, the lowest win rate in MLB in these spots (via Killer Sports). That even includes the game where Eugenio went deep four times! -- super improbable stretch is something you almost never see. These guys are better than this

If you play May team win totals - this is what my Monte Carlo simulations say (prob is as a pct)

wow this could best preseason name rotation of the century - 2018 Padres - three first could be last and vice versa names, Lamet lamenting and Luis Pardon Me For being in the rotation - what about 25 Padres version? - soon BW NL west preview will be out

Lets go Brewers today!!⚾️ for hedging opportunities on our preseason 35-1 League and 80-1 WS plays. Also, you gotta love backing a team in fave state of @dfsbachelor🍺 youtu.be/CQTQbNsKMHI #Undaunted

Dude nice video and great numbers funny I heard this track asking where AthleteX has gone today haha

Not even the sultan could get me through LA traffic in time for first pitch but I’m here now the sultans seats are pretty sweet @dfsbachelor

This guy just now politely pulled in front of me (not a cut off) maybe pointing me to Teoscar???

There is a logical and consistent approach I have used to predicting the HR Derby that has produced a winner at plus odds each year since 2019 when I started using it. I will review this on the show today possible underdog special!
youtu.be/4LK43GYBMyU

Aww yeah! MLB SWT goes live in less than an hour with @dfsbachelor and @kiiLkenny. The BW current future projections have some interesting plays for the show. youtu.be/Ngu6Rh6HD6w

The NLDS/ALDS show is at 9AM PST today with @dfsbachelor and @KeepBettingCo. Some good matchups and nice parlays! youtube.com/watch?v=yHy54o…

Could this matchup happen???? I will give you the odds on the show.

Never liked dealing with landscaping issues but the king just stuck his card in my door

sorry about that, we are having problems with yahoo e-mail addresses last 2 days. Scott is aware and working with send grid and yahoo. Here is today's card and if we can't get a resolution from them within next couple of days just give me an alternate e-mail address. Thanks ...Mark

Will the Phillies be 'Basewinners' today? We talk about it on today's show.

KISO23 model loves❤️this Friday card ---lots of ideas! Join me Kyle, @dfsbachelor and Corbie @KeepBettingCo to ask ?'s as we narrow it down youtu.be/QmkL52ec7VA

Card has been sent show is live. Join me @dfsbachelor and @Spreadapedia youtu.be/V1kfr3QLwwU

Great analysis on Napoli game ❤️! Thank you! Just brewed up a Nespresso Napoli blend - great blend and gets the win almost every time!

Card is out for today. Show should be fun with @dfsbachelor and @Spreadapedia. I'll try to get Jason to talk about his BongX 😎⚾️player ratings! youtu.be/oX4KwW3_zGo

A very interesting MLB card today. Weather, aces, and weird numbers. Join me @dfsbachelor, LLcoolC @KeepBettingCo to get our ideas and ask ?'s youtu.be/i_Iu93qPw9A

sorry - make sure you check your spam folder and junk ill let scott know you should receive tomorrow lmk if you do not by 9am here is todays

Today's card is light but we got Strider #ForTheA v Snell #BringTheGold + will Sale sail today?? Find out our thoughts on today's show @dfsbachelor @spreadepedia
youtu.be/3cqnSR3jNws

Lot's of day ball on today's MLB card. Is this a good day to call out? Find out on today's show youtu.be/oeuU9upALNw

Excited to ask @Spreadapedia a couple of questions today plus MLB Grand Salami ideas youtu.be/ykEsPeHdLVk

Interesting card today some scrubby pitchers and some decent ones. How best to approach?? Watch today for some ideas youtu.be/DBgebm9e6fs

Happy Opening Day ⚾️to you and your spouses😍! Join me @Spreadapedia and @dfsbachelor for detailed breakdown of card. any ?'s the floor is your at the end of the show youtu.be/OG0RFtiunlU

Cmon Jason it’s all about Jose Urena and Flexen muscles!

Is there a path for the Phillies #ringthebell ?? Perhaps, a couple of ideas from a betting approach here youtu.be/ZyJHEF8CDQg

Thanks yes - here is the preliminary pricing the model has produced for series. Value on all dogs by model --only one I am betting is #Guardians Think maybe better plays by day can get here bit.ly/daily_chart

Added plays are up on the site - a very surprising card today bit.ly/Crunch100422

There have been 14 Detroit starters this year that have pitched more than 10 innings. Metrics are super bad only 1 of them has a better than average BWERA its wild

There are three added plays on the Crunch card today bit.ly/crunch093022

Thanks man - here are the ratings - like Lynn here good luck!

No play on TB with Shaw opening. Behind the line movement now due to the pitching change. Here are the new numbers

Added play 7-29
STL/WAS over 9 +100
list starters Mikolas/An. Sanchez

Congrats to all that caught the HR Derby show and tailed .Soto was my guy at +550 and over 34.5. Nicely played Mr. Soto! bit.ly/3odyoJe

Added play for Friday card TBR -125 1 unit

Wow #Ohtani #Angels. L3 starts advanced numbers are ridiculous. Shohei me the money.

Great day for the chart and plays 6-1 and hit Mets/Guardians parlay +203. Hope you got em. It's free for now basewinner.com/premium.html

Not sure what's up with AL CY market @Spreadapedia and @beatingthebook. To me based on these odds and bwERA (K%, BB% and GB%), you have to take a shot with Shohei

Wise words from Minasian. The last quote is so appropriate for MLB handicapping.

To me, based on EV, Castiglione call, video and the science behind the humidor, humidor is making the ball bouncier in Chicago tonight bit.ly/3LToC8H

First full Friday card of the year and there are some tasty plays on the chart. You can get them all here youtu.be/b1tBxxfYIk0

Happy Opening Day everybody!!! Have a couple of nice picks and some interesting ratings and numbers on todays show youtu.be/kZwhPqi4vno

Great seats to see my favorite pitcher deal to Seager #RobbieRay

It's spring training for Gameday as well

This #Dbacks schedule is super tough for the first 18 games.

World Series game by game breakdown by team Base Runs and bwERA - some interesting numbers