Today on A Numbers Game, @beatingthebook and @KelleyBydlon were joined by @BaseWinner to break down the World Series.

He gave out an intriguing long shot World Series MVP bet and said why you should consider it, and discussed what would happen IF the Rays beat the Brewers more, check out: vsin.com/shows/a-number…

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Have I gone a little overboard with the World Series analysis? Probably. 😂

Park-adjusted HRs, ISO rankings, regression models, Monte Carlo simulations...

Ridiculous? Maybe. But hey, IT'S THE WORLD SERIES! ⚾

3 final Basewinner value plays:

🍺 MIL Series ML -165 (DK)
⚾ Over 9.5 Series HR -150 (Caesars)
💣 Victor Mesa Jr. 2+ HR +400 (Heritage)
If you appreciate this level of baseball analytics obsession, give me a follow!
Much love…BW

basewinner.com/posts/2026-wor…

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Looks like a cold night in Cleveland. 🥶⚾
Small sample size, but I thought this was interesting. In similar conditions at Progressive Field since 2022, scoring and HR production have been down, while walks have actually increased.
#MLB #Guardians #Rays #Basewinner

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On today's show: @PaulCarr | @BaseWinner | @chrisfallica | @FezzikSports

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Batters are 7-for-69 with 32 Ks against Cade Smith in the Postseason.

Batters are 1-for-10 with 6 Ks against him with runners in scoring position.

#GuardsBall | #Postseason

Gavin Williams was removed at 70 pitches. Lauren Shehadi reported she asked the Guardians' dugout if he's alright. Answer was yes. Cleveland removing him was reportedly a strategic move as opposed to any kind of injury concern.

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🏈Survivor Week 6 Considerations
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🏀NBA Awards Markets

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🛒⚾ Some pretty interesting data from the BWDB on how teams hit in what I call "Costco Parks" (closed-roof/dome stadiums).

So interesting, in fact, that I thought it was worth digging into and writing about, especially with the LCS underway.

Not exactly great for our LAD and her interesting piece of the handicapping puzzle!

basewinner.com/posts/the-cost…

#Dodgers #Guardians #MLBPlayoffs #Basewinner

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🌅⚾ Not a fan of the Dodgers day game — nothing like the sunset in October at Chavez Ravine.
I still like LAD to win today, but this was interesting enough to keep me off the Dodgers team total.
☀️ Before 6 PM AZ time at home this year: .680 OPS in 562 PA. That would rank around overall home numbers. 😬 Woof.
Maybe I’m making too much of it, but that’s why we have the database. 📊
📝 Note: the game counts overlap because some games had PAs on both sides of the 6 PM AZ cutoff.
#Dodgers #MLBPlayoffs

We rebuilt our October pitching model.

bwERA+ → postseason sxIP → bullpen exposure → team RA/G → series probabilities → 100,000 postseason simulations.

Then we priced the DraftKings postseason board.

A few differences jumped out:

CLE over CWS series
BW: 64.97% / -185 fair
DK: -140
NYY over TB series
BW: 58.71% / -142 fair
DK: -120
LAD World Series
BW: 39.36% / +154 fair
DK: +200

We can even price exact LCS outcomes now.
The final probabilities look clean. Building everything behind them definitely isn't.
Full breakdown 👇
basewinner.com/posts/we-rebui…

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🏈Monday Night Football Recap
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⚾️MLB Postseason Bracket Predictions
⚾️MLB Postseason Stat Leaders Odds

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Come on Phillies fans - Let's get some "Jesus Saves" signs. A save situation may not happen though? the way Phillies lineup of late, may need actual Jesus to hit.

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Burnes, baby, Burnes 🔥

Corbin Burnes returns to the mound tonight for the @Dbacks after last pitching June 1st, 2025!

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First comes the homer, then comes the bat flip that takes the frenzy to another level.

We bring you the Top 10 Bat Flips that define baseball. #250for250

I'm up for that!