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Did John Healey’s first Budget deliver, or was it a dud? @Independent writers, including me, pass judgment independent.co.uk/voices/john-he…
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Ben Walker retweeted
Always read @NeriZilber This is why I'm not surprised by the results. Stellar reporting and analysis through and through.
Turbulent weeks ahead-- across the region.
For those shocked by the election results (at least so far) in Israel - I tried to warn you. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…
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The North East is 4% of the UK. That's a sample size for the North East of 40.
🚨 NEW: We polled 1,000 British adults about the data centres being built here, and net support for one near where you live sits at -13.

The North East is the most supportive region at +11 and Northern Ireland the most opposed at -50.

Via @amphiotech (1/8)
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New post: that more people have paid attention to Burnham's announcement on the banning of loudspeaker music on public transport than any of the conference speeches Keir Starmer gave tells you a lot about how receptive voters have been to our new PM:
newstatesman.com/politics/polli…
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Genuinely mental that the quickest, and only reliable, route of going from Chester to Newcastle today is via London

Batshit insane British rail
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Ever wondered what 1980s Yugoslavia thought about UK place names?

Another map for @JHCPAL

From Sarajevo 80s Museum
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Brazilian stock market plunging not, I think, because Lula/Left = bad, but rather because few assumed a Lula win was going to happen.

Evidence that prediction markets might need better predictors. Or just a better analysis of what the polls mean.

Polls: 51/49
Result: 48/52
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The 2026 Budget will be make-or-break for Andy Burnham and John Healey; its reception by voters will set the narrative for the rest of this Parliament. In 2012, the “Omnishambles” budget all but wrecked the Conservative Party’s advantage on the economy. (Though only Labour could squander the opportunity.) Talk of a “cost of living crisis” rang true in some sections of society, notably the Labour seats where Labour canvassers were canvassing, but not in the more middle-class marginals that mattered. That one budget helped give rise to voter unrest, the onset of Ukip and the serious chance that Ed Miliband could take Number 10. It wasn’t to be, but politics hinged on it for a while.

The Liz Truss mini-Budget (or should I say the Kwasi Kwarteng mini-Budget) of 2022 crashed Tory reputations on the economy on a scale unseen since Black Wednesday in the 1990s. It sent Labour soaring, and voters warmed to Keir Starmer as much as they ever would – which was: not much. But it had enough of an impact as to make his Labour Party inoffensive enough for voters to soften their turnout against him in 2024.

@BNHWalker asks: What will the budget do to brand Burnham? newstatesman.com/politics/polli…
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🫡
🚨 BREAKING: Ontario Premier Doug Ford just canceled Elon Musk’s Starlink contract and banned all U.S. companies from government contracts in response to Trump’s economic war with Canada.

“It’s done, it’s gone,” Ford said. “We won’t award contracts to people who enable and cks on our province and our country.”

And just to be clear: “They only have President Trump to blame.”

So Trump starts a trade war, and now American businesses are getting locked out of Canada. This isn’t “tough negotiating”—this is our closest ally shutting the door on us while Trump pretends he’s “winning.”

MAGA wanted an economic war? Well, they just got one. And it’s American companies and workers who are about to feel the pain.
FOLLOW:@johnfkjuniorq
Community note
The video is from Doug Ford's March 2025 press conference announcing the Starlink contract cancellation and US procurement ban amid 2025 tariff disputes, not a recent event; reports confirm it as a past decision.
pcmag.com/news/ontario-r…
cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
youtube.com/watch?v=FcRMux…
iphoneincanada.ca/2026/10/21/hoe…
globalnews.ca/news/12071759/…
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Brazil 🇧🇷 is not out of the woods yet. Lula and his supporters will celebrate tonight but as the New York Times report there is a chance these elections could be annulled due to confusion over extending the voting hours from 5 to 7 pm.

If that happens it will be a major crisis.
BREAKING: Lula da Silva has won the presidential elections in Brazil 🇧🇷
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Swap Lula for Burnham and 2022 for 24 and I'm tentative to say, whatever happens in the next few years, we'll be making the same observation here in 28/29. x.com/OwenWntr/statu…
Lula improved on his 2022 performance in municipalities with higher incomes
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Lula improved on his 2022 performance in municipalities with higher incomes
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Bookies are vibes exhibit #30191
🇧🇷Brazil runoff on @Kalshi, in one chart.

Bolsonaro traded at 80%+ for two days. In the space of about an hour this afternoon, Lula went from 20% to 70% and Bolsonaro collapsed to 31%, on the heaviest volume of the market's life.

The bottom panel tells the story: low volumes thing at once as results came in.

Track live on @TheTerminal
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Replying to @BNHWalker
What needs appreciating is the final polls were 51-49, v much what was said for the EU referendum. 51-49 is no polling margin for anyone to gain confidence off, ever.
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Replying to @patrickjfl
Most of the country has swung to Lula since round 1.
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quite possibly
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They did it! The students won!

Serbia 🇷🇸
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Ben Walker retweeted
Google illegally cleared an estimated 250,000 trees across 330 hectares of forest in Muhos, northern Finland, to prepare for a new AI data center before completing mandatory environmental impact assessments
And another 150,000 trees felled at Otanmäki
theguardian.com/environment/ng…
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Deleting the Calverley post. Hadn't appreciated the longstanding Con candidate whose name is Carter. Had only clocked the swings to and from it being a marginal
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