Adam Wolnikowski retweeted
My Nominal Series B memo (12/29/25):
Hey team,
We’re evaluating a pre-emptive FF double down (something like [redacted] at [redacted] post).
The company builds data pipelines and testing software, primarily for software that lives on hardware. A simple analogy would be Databricks for software that operates in the “real world.”
We did the seed back in fall 2022 ([redacted] at [redacted] post) and currently own [redacted] in FF7. They started this year at [redacted] commercial CARR + [redacted] federal ACV ([redacted] total), and are tracking to end the year at [redacted] commercial / [redacted] federal, which gets them to [redacted] total “blended ARR” for 2025. The 2026 base case is [redacted] blended ARR (CEO’s 90% confidence case) and internal target is [redacted] (50% confidence case).
We spent the last few days speaking with customers across a variety of use cases and industries, including Anduril, Radiant, General Matter, Shinkei, Regent, Wisk, and Antares. The feedback is positive, with a handful of exceptions from when the product was less mature very early on, or where the use-case is hyper-specific. We also spoke with Boeing and Lockheed Martin and they referenced very well there.
The deal setup is similar to the [redacted] round we led with Ramp last summer—it’s not a “value” deal but we have access edge as an insider, and Cameron really wants to deepen his relationship with FF. He has interest from [redacted], [redacted] etc. at [redacted]+ but he would be willing to take a small / low dilution round from FF now, and then raise a bigger round at a higher valuation in the spring from others. One added benefit is that we should be able to fund this via FF7 recycling (so we can effectively double our ownership in the same fund).
This round is definitely on the higher end of multiples. However, we think the company is sitting on latent P/M-fit potential. They’ve added [redacted] ARR this past year with only 2 sales people, which they plan to ramp to 15+ with a strong VP Sales from MongoDB. There’s also an incredibly large market of “software for hardware” that has largely been ignored by Silicon Valley.
The vast majority of venture dollars have flowed into developer tools made for engineers building SaaS/Social Media/Crypto, e.g. pure software/cloud products, vs developer tools made to interface with the real world. This has applications across A&D, Auto, Manufacturing, Chemicals etc. There are some generic tools in this category like MATLAB/LabVIEW, which require being technical to implement, and a few domain-specific tools, like IADS in airframe flight testing, but generally all of these incumbents are decades-old and the NPS is quite low, providing a very large opportunity for Nominal to capture. We believe they can get to $10b in EV just in their current use-case, but across the sectors listed.
Combining all of this, this feels like an ideal time to size up in the company, at a time where we can get a deal below market, and the company has the potential to 10x from here if they are able to execute on sales + product in a way where they expand beyond A&D and into more use cases. There’s a clear edge for us here, right now.
On a final note, I’ve known Cameron and Jason, two of the co-founders, since I was 17 and we were MIT classmates. Jason has always been one of the best engineers I’ve ever known. He started his career at Palantir building Foundry, where he references phenomenally well (from Schimpf etc.). Cameron has really impressed us with his growth over the past few years building Nominal, and he’s very much growing into the CEO role.
Hey team,
We’re evaluating a pre-emptive FF double down (something like [redacted] at [redacted] post).
The company builds data pipelines and testing software, primarily for software that lives on hardware. A simple analogy would be Databricks for software that operates in the “real world.”
We did the seed back in fall 2022 ([redacted] at [redacted] post) and currently own [redacted] in FF7. They started this year at [redacted] commercial CARR + [redacted] federal ACV ([redacted] total), and are tracking to end the year at [redacted] commercial / [redacted] federal, which gets them to [redacted] total “blended ARR” for 2025. The 2026 base case is [redacted] blended ARR (CEO’s 90% confidence case) and internal target is [redacted] (50% confidence case).
We spent the last few days speaking with customers across a variety of use cases and industries, including Anduril, Radiant, General Matter, Shinkei, Regent, Wisk, and Antares. The feedback is positive, with a handful of exceptions from when the product was less mature very early on, or where the use-case is hyper-specific. We also spoke with Boeing and Lockheed Martin and they referenced very well there.
The deal setup is similar to the [redacted] round we led with Ramp last summer—it’s not a “value” deal but we have access edge as an insider, and Cameron really wants to deepen his relationship with FF. He has interest from [redacted], [redacted] etc. at [redacted]+ but he would be willing to take a small / low dilution round from FF now, and then raise a bigger round at a higher valuation in the spring from others. One added benefit is that we should be able to fund this via FF7 recycling (so we can effectively double our ownership in the same fund).
This round is definitely on the higher end of multiples. However, we think the company is sitting on latent P/M-fit potential. They’ve added [redacted] ARR this past year with only 2 sales people, which they plan to ramp to 15+ with a strong VP Sales from MongoDB. There’s also an incredibly large market of “software for hardware” that has largely been ignored by Silicon Valley.
The vast majority of venture dollars have flowed into developer tools made for engineers building SaaS/Social Media/Crypto, e.g. pure software/cloud products, vs developer tools made to interface with the real world. This has applications across A&D, Auto, Manufacturing, Chemicals etc. There are some generic tools in this category like MATLAB/LabVIEW, which require being technical to implement, and a few domain-specific tools, like IADS in airframe flight testing, but generally all of these incumbents are decades-old and the NPS is quite low, providing a very large opportunity for Nominal to capture. We believe they can get to $10b in EV just in their current use-case, but across the sectors listed.
Combining all of this, this feels like an ideal time to size up in the company, at a time where we can get a deal below market, and the company has the potential to 10x from here if they are able to execute on sales + product in a way where they expand beyond A&D and into more use cases. There’s a clear edge for us here, right now.
On a final note, I’ve known Cameron and Jason, two of the co-founders, since I was 17 and we were MIT classmates. Jason has always been one of the best engineers I’ve ever known. He started his career at Palantir building Foundry, where he references phenomenally well (from Schimpf etc.). Cameron has really impressed us with his growth over the past few years building Nominal, and he’s very much growing into the CEO role.
Today we’re announcing @Nominal_io's $240M Series C at a $3B valuation led by @lightspeedvp and co-lead by @insightpartners. We’re also introducing the Hardware Intelligence Platform.
Over the last year, we’ve worked alongside our customers to answer one important question: What nts to earn their place in hardware engineering?
We take that question and the implications seriously. Hardware operates in the physical world, where the stakes are high, the constraints are real, and getting things right really matters. Moreover, the delta between the AI frontier and what many of our customers have available to them on a day-to-day basis in the industrial sector could not be wider than it is today. To date, agents, models, and purpose-built infrastructure haven’t been built with their use-cases in mind. In a world where context and data is spread across machines, files, drawings, spec sheets, test ranges, manufacturing lines, and most importantly, the brains of the very human operators, engineers, and technicians that power the physical world.
That changes now, with the first purpose built intelligence platform for hardware engineering. We're excited to show you what we've been building.
First, to our customers: Thank you for trusting us. This round lets us go further, faster, for each of you. For some, that means expanding beyond testing into design, production, and service operations in the field. For others, it means bringing agents into your daily work to truly operationalize AI in your organizations for the first time. Wherever you are in that journey, we're ready to meet you where you’re at, and build shoulder-to-shoulder as you take on the constraints you face every day.
Next, to our team: I'm very proud of what we've already accomplished, and now we have even more work to do. I’ve been inspired watching us move faster than ever, even while growing more quickly than at any point in our history. We started Nominal to redefine what’s possible in the physical world. That ambition hasn't changed, but the opportunity in front of us has grown enormously. The responsibility that comes with it isn't lost on us, and there's never been a better time to be a Nomineer.
And finally, to our investors: Thank you for continuing to believe in what we're building and backing us as our ambitions have grown. We began four years ago with redefining data analysis for hardware testing. That grew into full-stack data and control infrastructure for test and operations, and it’s now the foundation for an intelligence platform for the entire hardware lifecycle, from first simulation to fleets in the field.
The future of hardware will be built on Nominal.
All Systems Nominal 🚀
Lux Capital, Sequoia, General Catalyst, Founders Fund, Avenir, Lockheed Martin Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, M13, D.E. Shaw Ventures, Deployment Capital, Avra, Red Glass Ventures, Carpenter Capital, Audacious, PSP, Overmatch Ventures, XYZ, Haystack, Brave Capital.
Learn more about this fundraise:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The last 8 months have been a wild ride! Nominal acquired Fid Labs in March right as the last round closed at a $1B valuation. Since then, we've built agents for engineers doing mission-critical work on everything from race cars to nuclear reactors, and we're just getting started 🚀
Nominal just raised $240M at a $3B valuation.
Engineers today are building some of the most ambitious machines humanity has ever seen. They should have AI that’s purpose-built for them.
We started Nominal with a simple observation, that hardware teams needed better ways to work decisions from it. Over the past four years, we’ve built software that understands the complex realities of hardware development.
Now we’re building the Hardware Intelligence Platform that gives engineers increased visibility into complex physical systems, helps them make better decisions, and ultimately gets their products into the real world faster. It brings together the systems, data, intelligence, and applications hardware engineering requires to meet the AI moment.
Our Series C was led by @Lightspeedvp and co-led by @Insightpartners, with participation from Lux Capital, Sequoia, General Catalyst, Founders Fund, Avenir, Lockheed Martin Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, M13, DE Shaw Ventures, Deployment Capital, Avra, Red Glass Ventures, Carpenter Capital, Audacious, PSP, Overmatch Ventures, XYZ, Haystack, and Brave Capital.
Thank you to our customers, partners, team, and every hardware engineer building on Nominal.
Read more here → nominal.io/blog/series-c
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We've also built an AI org filled with the most talented people I've ever worked with. Come build with us: nominal.io/careers
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Adam Wolnikowski retweeted
It is always visually stunning to see cemeteries across Poland on All Saints Day after dark lit by grave candles like this:
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Apparently the first one is a foil in a wind tunnel. Not affiliated with Poster House but it's a cool spot to visit in Flatiron shop.posterhouse.org/first-step-int…
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The greater Bushwick metropolitan area is at critically low levels of Nathan Fielder halloween accessories
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Nathan Fielder’s biggest stunt yet is making every viewer (in perpetuity!) of You Can See Everything an unwitting participant in the film by making them wonder if a portion of their ticket, streaming sub, etc. went into Billy’s pocket
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Decision models can play Dark Souls in real time!
I’ve been trying to better understand the spatial/temporal reasoning and latency tradeoffs of different models, so I had them all fight Gundyr.
GPT-6 Luna Decisions came out on top, with multiple no hit runs:
I’ve been trying to better understand the spatial/temporal reasoning and latency tradeoffs of different models, so I had them all fight Gundyr.
GPT-6 Luna Decisions came out on top, with multiple no hit runs:
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Laya 210M (on the typed decisions checkpoint) is super aggressive as well, and weirdly it always decides to drink all of its Estus right at the beginning of the fight!
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Implementation and full results here: github.com/AWoLnik/SoulsB…
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Just filtering on a label in google scholar and screenshotting it as your team slide is a terrachad move
We created a pitch deck to tell a handful of VC firms about us and what we were up to (a fun experience!). Here’s a few slides about our background and some of the things we’ve worked on from the pitch deck (it was fun putting together the list of people in our teams who have e range of exciting companies). We are delighted to have selected @radicalvcfund
and @khoslaventures to lead our initial funding round, along with participation from @lightspeedvp, @kleinerperkins, Doerr Capital (@johndoerr), and Alphabet (@Google). We’ll be working with them to close our seed round over the next few weeks.
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