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extremely excited to announce this and grateful to all our backers
We are excited to announce we have raised a pre-seed from @carterkev at Night Capital, @vaneck_us, @eightyhi and @Nostroah at @ufo_holdings, @Maven11Capital and @DCGco to build an independent index business for event contracts and prediction markets.
adjacent.markets
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lucas retweeted
We’re pleased to announce that the CFTC has approved Rothera’s first swap tied to a key performance indicator (KPI) of a publicly-listed company.
This approval paves the way for Rothera to list additional KPI swaps across three categories – company financial reporting, platform etrics. Rollout begins this fall with platform usage and production contracts, with initial listings targeted ahead of relevant companies’ quarterly reporting dates.
The CFTC’s approval opens the door for continued innovation and greater choice in how market participants trade on company performance. It represents another step toward realizing the full potential of event contracts – expanding their applications for managing risk, expressing views on real-world business outcomes, and generating market insight.
We look forward to helping advance this next phase of event contract markets.
Read the press release: rothera.io/post/rothera-r…
This approval paves the way for Rothera to list additional KPI swaps across three categories – company financial reporting, platform etrics. Rollout begins this fall with platform usage and production contracts, with initial listings targeted ahead of relevant companies’ quarterly reporting dates.
The CFTC’s approval opens the door for continued innovation and greater choice in how market participants trade on company performance. It represents another step toward realizing the full potential of event contracts – expanding their applications for managing risk, expressing views on real-world business outcomes, and generating market insight.
We look forward to helping advance this next phase of event contract markets.
Read the press release: rothera.io/post/rothera-r…
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lucas retweeted
A great article by and @IlluminateFM and @theAlexGheorghe
And thanks for the shoutout.
illuminatefinancial.com/insights-post/…
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first EPS filing !
[ADJ] ROTHERA APPROVAL "WILL TESLA REPORT Q3 2026 ADJUSTED EPS GREATER THAN $0.65?"
cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…
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exactly what we build, live today with 100+ indices across economics, politics, and sports across 4+ exchanges and growing
Event indices are a great idea.
Basically you can bet on a weighted basket of events that represent some broader significance or expression. Inn some cases of he individual components can even act as hedges for one another.
Might experiment with some of these for @Trueo_
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lucas retweeted
Be sure to read @alanwu's piece on the @supercycleblog:
"An individual market can answer whether the Strait’s traffic goes back to normal this year. An index can tell you whether the Middle East is getting more stable.
Prediction markets price the events everyone’s watching.
Indices will answer the questions everyone’s asking."
We couldn't agree more.
supercycle.blog/p/prediction-m…
"An individual market can answer whether the Strait’s traffic goes back to normal this year. An index can tell you whether the Middle East is getting more stable.
Prediction markets price the events everyone’s watching.
Indices will answer the questions everyone’s asking."
We couldn't agree more.
supercycle.blog/p/prediction-m…
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lucas retweeted
Personal news: After nearly 8 years at NPR, I’m excited to share that I’m going to Bloomberg to help lead coverage of the prediction market industry. I’ll be joining their mighty crypto and prediction markets team, which has long been doing really impressive work for @business and @BW. I start just after midterms.
Kalshi/Polymarket/PM tips or convos: ballyn.77 on Signal
Kalshi/Polymarket/PM tips or convos: ballyn.77 on Signal
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lucas retweeted
We're gonna have Misery Futures now
We are excited to launch MSRY, the Misery Implied Index, the first live, real-time version of the Misery Index.
Misery has been an economic indicator since the 1960s as a broad way of tracking the US economy by adding the unemployment and inflation rates together.
The economic month on a delayed schedule. Using prediction markets we have built a real-time and market-driven version.
Read more at press.adj.news/p/launching-th…
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The Misery Index (unemployment+inflation) has been an economic indicator for 50yr+ but is reported on a delay and only 1x a month.
MSRY, our first of many economic indices, is a real-time prediction market driven index tracking Okun's initial design inflationdata.com/articles/miser…
MSRY, our first of many economic indices, is a real-time prediction market driven index tracking Okun's initial design inflationdata.com/articles/miser…
We are excited to launch MSRY, the Misery Implied Index, the first live, real-time version of the Misery Index.
Misery has been an economic indicator since the 1960s as a broad way of tracking the US economy by adding the unemployment and inflation rates together.
The economic month on a delayed schedule. Using prediction markets we have built a real-time and market-driven version.
Read more at press.adj.news/p/launching-th…
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its been great working with @MattSiff_ and @AndrewSiff_ to support our reference rates and indices across many exchanges!
We’re excited to partner with @FurnaceInfra
Adjacent uses Furnace’s reference data to identify economically equivalent prediction-market contracts across venues. These mappings support the construction of our indices and reference rates.
Read more at press.adj.news/p/adjacent-par…
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lucas retweeted
We’re excited to partner with @AdjacentMarkets.
Adjacent uses Furnace’s reference data to identify economically equivalent prediction-market contracts across venues, providing the underlying mappings used in the construction of its indices and reference rates.
Adjacent uses Furnace’s reference data to identify economically equivalent prediction-market contracts across venues, providing the underlying mappings used in the construction of its indices and reference rates.
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lucas retweeted
Prediction markets are becoming institutional. The infrastructure underneath them needs to catch up.
Today, Furnace is coming out of stealth.
We’ve raised $3.5M led by @NorthIslandVC, with participation from @vaneck_us, @recvcx, @hi_Reverie, and angels from The Depository Trust (DTCC), Public, and Commonweal Ventures.
We started Furnace around one question:
What does this contract actually represent?
As prediction markets expand across venues, the same economic exposure can be represented through contracts with different names, structures, rules, timing, and settlement mechanics. Some represent the same underlying exposure. Others look similar but are materially different.
Traditional financial markets rely on common identifiers and reference data to represent instruments and exposures consistently across trading, position, and risk systems. Prediction markets are developing without that common framework.
Furnace is building it.
We assign persistent canonical identities to economic exposures and map venue-specific instruments to them, while preserving the differences in rules, settlement, and other terms that can matter.
This gives institutions and builders a common foundation for integrating prediction markets into existing financial infrastructure and building new products around them.
Our goal is to create a common language for prediction-market exposures, making them consistently identifiable and usable across financial systems and products.
We’re grateful to our investors and partners who have helped us get here.
If you’re trading, building, or creating infrastructure around prediction markets, we’d love to talk → furnaceinfra.com
Today, Furnace is coming out of stealth.
We’ve raised $3.5M led by @NorthIslandVC, with participation from @vaneck_us, @recvcx, @hi_Reverie, and angels from The Depository Trust (DTCC), Public, and Commonweal Ventures.
We started Furnace around one question:
What does this contract actually represent?
As prediction markets expand across venues, the same economic exposure can be represented through contracts with different names, structures, rules, timing, and settlement mechanics. Some represent the same underlying exposure. Others look similar but are materially different.
Traditional financial markets rely on common identifiers and reference data to represent instruments and exposures consistently across trading, position, and risk systems. Prediction markets are developing without that common framework.
Furnace is building it.
We assign persistent canonical identities to economic exposures and map venue-specific instruments to them, while preserving the differences in rules, settlement, and other terms that can matter.
This gives institutions and builders a common foundation for integrating prediction markets into existing financial infrastructure and building new products around them.
Our goal is to create a common language for prediction-market exposures, making them consistently identifiable and usable across financial systems and products.
We’re grateful to our investors and partners who have helped us get here.
If you’re trading, building, or creating infrastructure around prediction markets, we’d love to talk → furnaceinfra.com
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lucas retweeted
HSBC has a new note out giving its clients a primer on perps (perpetual futures)
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og with market maker combo incentive program cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…
college football games are being routed on robinhood to OG atm
college football games are being routed on robinhood to OG atm
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get filings within ~minutes @ x.com/AdjacentNews/s…
Kalshi has filed for 24/5 oil perps with the CFTC, days after CME withdrew a similar proposal.
story by @MiaGindis on Terminal now
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WTI ~perps coming to Kalshi ~tomorrow
[ADJ] KALSHI CERTIFICATION "WTIFUTURE."
cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…
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lucas retweeted
Today we launched the first stock index perpetual future in America.
You can now trade a perp on the US 500, an index of America’s largest companies weighted by market cap.
Stock index perps let you trade the broader market with greater capital efficiency and make it easier to hort position. Unlike traditional options and futures, they don’t expire, so there’s no need to roll over contracts or decide when to exercise an option. Gains and losses are tied directly to how much the market moves, giving you an efficient and straightforward way to ask the question: is the market going up or down?
One perpetual contract concentrates liquidity instead of spreading it across expiration dates. Bringing more traders and competing views into a single liquidity pool on a national exchange can strengthen competition, improve pricing, and make markets more efficient over time.
This launch brings us closer to building a financial exchange for anyone and everyone. Prediction markets gave traders exposure to the events that move the stock market. The US 500 is the natural next step: a way to trade on the market itself.
You can now trade a perp on the US 500, an index of America’s largest companies weighted by market cap.
Stock index perps let you trade the broader market with greater capital efficiency and make it easier to hort position. Unlike traditional options and futures, they don’t expire, so there’s no need to roll over contracts or decide when to exercise an option. Gains and losses are tied directly to how much the market moves, giving you an efficient and straightforward way to ask the question: is the market going up or down?
One perpetual contract concentrates liquidity instead of spreading it across expiration dates. Bringing more traders and competing views into a single liquidity pool on a national exchange can strengthen competition, improve pricing, and make markets more efficient over time.
This launch brings us closer to building a financial exchange for anyone and everyone. Prediction markets gave traders exposure to the events that move the stock market. The US 500 is the natural next step: a way to trade on the market itself.
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