chamath was posting about $CRWV a few days ago.
now elon's out here saying debt markets are shutting off for neoclouds with no real revenue.
feels like he's trying to talk this whole trade down.
$CRWV $NBIS $CIFR all sitting in the blast radius.
what's cooking?
now elon's out here saying debt markets are shutting off for neoclouds with no real revenue.
feels like he's trying to talk this whole trade down.
$CRWV $NBIS $CIFR all sitting in the blast radius.
what's cooking?
@chamathuch.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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CCC junk yields back at 18%, highest since 2020
credit usually blinks before stocks do
credit usually blinks before stocks do
The US junk bond market is under severe pressure:
The effective yield on US CCC-rated and lower-rated high-yield corporate bonds is up to 18.0%, its highest level since the 2020 pandemic.
This figure has surged +500 basis points over the last 6 months, marking its largest the 2022 bear market.
For perspective, this yield peaked at 45.0% during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Meanwhile, credit spreads for CCC-rated and lower corporate bonds over Treasuries are up to 13.4%, the widest gap since July 2020.
Over the last 6 months, this gauge has risen +464 basis points, surpassing the 2022 bear market peak of 12.8%.
Cracks are widening beneath the surface of the credit market.
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Levels for the week | Oct 26
Last week $QQQ lost 710 and slid right into 700... it never broke it. Same levels are the story again
$SPY
Closed 759.97, just under 760, the biggest short gamma for Friday... 764 is the flip, reclaim it and 780 is the biggest long gamma above. Lose 760 for real and 745 is the next big short gamma node
$QQQ
Closed 704.40, right on the 704 flip... 700 is still the biggest short gamma for Friday, lose it and 690 is next. Hold 704 and 729 is the biggest long gamma up top, with short gamma at 710 to 720 in the way
$CRWV
54.24 and under the 58 flip... 50 and 55 are the two biggest short gamma levels for Friday. Reclaim 58 and 65 then 70 open up, 70 being the biggest long gamma. Lose 50 and 45 is next
$AAOI
67.51 with 70 short gamma right overhead and the flip at 69... get back over 70 and 74 is the biggest long gamma for Friday. Lose 65, the biggest short gamma for Friday, and it's thin down to 60
Big earnings week, so these can move quick
NFA
Last week $QQQ lost 710 and slid right into 700... it never broke it. Same levels are the story again
$SPY
Closed 759.97, just under 760, the biggest short gamma for Friday... 764 is the flip, reclaim it and 780 is the biggest long gamma above. Lose 760 for real and 745 is the next big short gamma node
$QQQ
Closed 704.40, right on the 704 flip... 700 is still the biggest short gamma for Friday, lose it and 690 is next. Hold 704 and 729 is the biggest long gamma up top, with short gamma at 710 to 720 in the way
$CRWV
54.24 and under the 58 flip... 50 and 55 are the two biggest short gamma levels for Friday. Reclaim 58 and 65 then 70 open up, 70 being the biggest long gamma. Lose 50 and 45 is next
$AAOI
67.51 with 70 short gamma right overhead and the flip at 69... get back over 70 and 74 is the biggest long gamma for Friday. Lose 65, the biggest short gamma for Friday, and it's thin down to 60
Big earnings week, so these can move quick
NFA
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fed wednesday, $MSFT $GOOGL that same night, $AMZN thursday
biggest week of the quarter. $SPY $QQQ levels coming before the open
biggest week of the quarter. $SPY $QQQ levels coming before the open
Big Tech earnings + FOMC. This week could set the tone for the rest of Q4.
Here’s what I’m watching October 26–30:
MON: $VZ $CDNS
TUE: $V $HOOD $SOFI $STX $NXPI $KO $UPS
WED: $MSFT $GOOGL $NOW $KLAC $VRT $GEV
THU: $AMZN $INTC $SNDK $COIN $MSTR $RDDT $RBLX $LLY $MA $CAT
FRI: $XOM $CVX
Microsoft and Google report Wednesday after the close. Amazon follows Thursday. The focus: cloud growth, AI spending, and whether that spending is translating into profits. :chatgpt-content-reference{index="0"}
FOMC is Wednesday, October 28:
• Rate decision: 2 PM ET / 11 AM PT
• Press conference: 2:30 PM ET / 11:30 AM PT
CME odds reported Friday put a pause around 92%, leaving roughly 8% for a hike. A pause is heavily expected, so the bigger catalyst could be the Fed’s message about December and further tightening. :chatgpt-content-reference{index="1"}
There are NO new economic projections or dot plot this meeting. The next update comes in December. This week, watch the statement and press conference for changes to the inflation and rate outlook. :chatgpt-content-reference{index="2"}
My proxy play for the semiconductor side of these AI earnings: $SMH.
Microsoft, Google, and Amazon’s spending plans can move the chip stocks supplying that infrastructure. Strong spending supports demand, but the market still needs confidence in the returns.
Same key levels I mentioned last week:
• 538
• 525
• 500
If we get more downside, my planned allocation remains:
25% at 535
25% at 525
50% at 500
Those percentages are of my planned SMH position.
I want to see buyers defend these areas and chips start building a base. Losing 538 puts 525 in focus, then 500 if selling continues.
Plenty of catalysts. No need to force a trade before the reaction. Pre-plan your risk, stay patient, and let price confirm.
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$SPY closed 759.97 friday, right on top of that 760 wall
futures open tonight tells us if it holds or turns into a magnet
futures open tonight tells us if it holds or turns into a magnet
A gambling influencer posted full-port Moderna puts on X… an hour later $MRNA crashed 22% 🚨
Plus, nearly $25M bet that semis will crash, and a huge $5B $SPY put wall at 760
WATCH NOW: youtu.be/Lr5UzgGVvxc
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$CELH consolidating at volume shelf support for the last few weeks...that shelf could act as a launch pad if the market behaves.
On a launch, if it recovers the 50D SMA around 29.5, then 36 is the next target, where the weekly 50D SMA and daily 200D SMA confluence sits.
If 27 rom August might get retested.
Earnings on Nov 5 so stay cautious
On a launch, if it recovers the 50D SMA around 29.5, then 36 is the next target, where the weekly 50D SMA and daily 200D SMA confluence sits.
If 27 rom August might get retested.
Earnings on Nov 5 so stay cautious
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CAN WE GET A 🌮 ANNOUNCEMENT PLEASE? 🙏🏻
QATAR MEDIATES IN IRAN AS U.S. SEEKS TO EASE TENSIONS
Qatari mediators are in Tehran as part of a diplomatic effort coordinated with the United States to de-escalate regional tensions, Reuters reports.
The initiative comes amid heightened concerns over renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities.
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$BTC and gold both down 7%+ this year. the two hedges everyone swore by
stocks just quietly did the work
stocks just quietly did the work
Bitcoin (-7.3%) and Gold (-7.5%) are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026. This is something we haven't seen before in any calendar year.
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$GOOGL has $242B in cash and trades about 22% under its 52 week high
earnings wednesday. hard to call that expensive
earnings wednesday. hard to call that expensive
Alphabet is sitting on $242B of cash, almost twice as much as Amazon (Save this for later).
Cash and short-term investments at the end of the latest quarter:
1. Alphabet $GOOGL: $242B
2. Amazon $AMZN: $123B
3. SpaceX $SPCX: $100B
4. Meta $META: $90B
5. Microsoft $MSFT: $77B
6. pple $AAPL: $62B
8. Tesla $TSLA: $44B
9. Micron $MU: $43B
10. Oracle $ORCL: $37B
Banks excluded, among 44 of the largest US-listed stocks.
That cash pays for the AI build-out. Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft all update their spending plans this week.
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gpus are showing up faster than the power to run them
that keeps compute scarce for anyone without a plugged in site
$CEG $VST $VRT $ETN catch the bottleneck first
$CRWV $NBIS only work if the power is already locked
$NVDA still sells either way, but utilization is what the market will price.
that keeps compute scarce for anyone without a plugged in site
$CEG $VST $VRT $ETN catch the bottleneck first
$CRWV $NBIS only work if the power is already locked
$NVDA still sells either way, but utilization is what the market will price.
$SPCX CEO Elon Musk says we’re going to see “a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers” as GPUs arrive faster than power infrastructure needed to run them.
That sounds bearish but could actually keep GPU rental prices higher for longer as companies with power from tight supply while idle chips lose value with every new generation.
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$AMPX got its $8 back
opened 7.71, reclaimed the flip in the first half hour and never looked back
now 8.27, high of day
hold 8 and that 8.70 gap fill is back on the table
opened 7.71, reclaimed the flip in the first half hour and never looked back
now 8.27, high of day
hold 8 and that 8.70 gap fill is back on the table
well that bounce didn't last lol
$AMPX gave it all back and is sitting at 7.67 again, under the $8 flip
need $8 back before i even think about that 8.70 gap fill again..
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Floor held on $AAOI
the $66 flip did its job, low was 66.30 yesterday and 67.32 today, $65 never even got touched
now 69.12
$70 back is the first step, lose 66 and $65 is next
the $66 flip did its job, low was 66.30 yesterday and 67.32 today, $65 never even got touched
now 69.12
$70 back is the first step, lose 66 and $65 is next
$AAOI gamma update | Oct 22
lost $75 from yesterday and slid straight to $70, down 10% around $69 now.
$70 and $65 are the two big short gamma levels on friday's expiry, so it's stuck in the slippery zone right now.
the flip is down at $66, so holding that keeps it from or any real bounce it has to win back $75, and $80 to $85 stays the upside target.
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