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We just made 500 Player Write-Ups FREE to read. How? Subscribers' evaluations are now free for ALL to read.
Your subscription now means more visibility.
Subscribers now have 5x more visibility. A quick 🧵 (And discount code in the comments) 1/5
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It’s weird to me that there’s a lot of overlap between “Why go for 2 down 9?” and “Don’t need a 3 to tie here, plenty of time for a quick 2” people. It’s completely opposite logic.
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I wonder if anti-go for 2 down 9 people waited until 20 minutes before they had plans with friends as teenagers to ask their parents for permission then canceling on friends instead of asking ahead of time and adjusting, if needed.
People freaking out about Day going for 2 are failing to understand a logic test very similar to the “Monty Hall” problem.
If you can’t understand this, you can’t understand Ryan Day’s decision:
-You stand in front of three closed doors.
-Behind one door is a brand-new car; behind the other two doors are goats.
-You pick one door (for example, Door 1).
-The host, Monty Hall—who knows what is behind every door—opens one of the remaining doors (say, Door 3) to reveal a goat.
-Monty then asks you a question: Do you want to switch your choice to the remaining unopened door (Door 2)?
You ALWAYS switch. Sticking with door 1 gives you 1/3 chance of winning, switching to door 2 gives a 2/3 chance.
The above is due to information. The host ruled out a set of possibilities for you, and it altered the odds for the set you didn’t pick.
People really struggle with this altered information game theory problem, even though it’s *absolutely* true as math.
Ryan Day going for 2 early was getting information on what they needed to do. That gives clarity on his path (2 more possessions to win vs 1 more) that all things equal improve his odds.
The exception is really only if you think going for 2 later is better than earlier due to “momentum.” If it isn’t, waiting it out loses the game when you miss it, but without time to correct. If momentum helps, then they aren’t equal odds and maybe it’s better.
Keep in mind even having an easier 2nd scoring drive before going for 2 doesn’t really matter - if you miss going for 2 but leave 15 seconds left you’re losing. The whole game state hinged on the 2-pt try.
From a vibes perspective, most people struggle with this because they feel like the longer you’re “in the game” the better off you are. That really isn’t true, for the same reason that having a 4 minute drive down 15 was the wrong call even if it likely scores, as it was better to take lower percentage shots to try and score in 2 minutes. Ohio State had “hope” to some, but to people like me the clock situation told me they’d already lost the game.
In view of the above, I’d probably do what Day did. The opposite is fine too - onside kicks are rarely converted due to rule changes over the last decade, and there was almost no time - but that’s based on some very fuzzy guesses on PAT conversion. Neither is a stupid approach.
But if you can’t understand the Monty Hall problem, you aren’t going to truly understand what Day was deciding, either.
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LaNorris Sellers has 2.452 total yards this year. School record is 3,502 (Dylan Thompson, 2014).
Sellers needs to average 263 yards per game to break that record. 8 TDs from the single-season record (Shaw, 2013; Thompson, 2014). All those records were set in 13-game seasons.
Sellers needs to average 263 yards per game to break that record. 8 TDs from the single-season record (Shaw, 2013; Thompson, 2014). All those records were set in 13-game seasons.
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Will Helms retweeted
South Carolina's 521 yards and 42 points are the most Oklahoma has allowed in a game since joining the SEC.
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Not sure if they’re allowed to change something they’re not looking at, but that’s a touchdown from Harbor.
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If my math is correct, Princeton’s @teomcphatter1 became the eighth player in state history to reach 100 scrimmage touchdowns last night.
McClendon’s all-time TD record is probably out of reach, but he’s about 4,000 yards away from the rushing record with playoffs + a year to go
McClendon’s all-time TD record is probably out of reach, but he’s about 4,000 yards away from the rushing record with playoffs + a year to go
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If Princeton can win a couple playoff games, Teo will officially be on “North Carolina all-time leading rusher” watch as a senior.
#2 rusher in the nation resides in Princeton NC! Teo Mcphatter rushed for 405 yards and 5TDs against his rival Rosewood! He sits at 2535 rushing yards 35 rushing TDs this season! Postgame interview with HC Travis Gaster and Teo Mcphatter #Football #RunningBacks @PHS_Bulldogs @teomcphatter1
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Preliminary brackets posted. Third round looks incredible. Potential 1A title rematch, Fike-Hunt, South Point-Monroe, Middle Creek-Rose, Southern Alamance-Northern Nash, Gibbons-Garner, MR-Lake Norman, Rolesville-Millbrook, Creek-Chambers, etc.
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Totally Bryce’s fault.
Sacks are drive killers - but how much of the damage is actually on the QB?
Data charted by @FTNFantasy
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