Winry retweeted
Kalshi just raised an additional $1B, valuing the company at $40B. This will help us expand into stocks, compute, indices, and institutional.
Tomorrow marks 8 years since we got accepted into YC and the journey began.
The odds of a kid from Lebanon getting here were pretty low.
reat, but very challenging. We went through war. We had bombs explode in front of my house. I watched brilliant people’s lives destroyed for reasons beyond their control.
Lebanon is an unpredictable country. That unpredictability made it hard to plan for success. And yet despite it all, my mom sacrificed everything to give me and my brother the chance to go back to the US.
I found my refuge in two things: anime and math. Especially math.
I loved math because it calmed me. It was the opposite of unpredictable: clear, deterministic, orderly, and consistent. The proof is either right or wrong. I find that elegant and beautiful.
I was lucky.
I made it to my dream school, MIT (largely thanks to my mom), and my love for math quickly translated to a love for statistics, probability, and markets.
I love markets for a lot of the same reasons. Their incentives are clear: you get rewarded for being right and for pursuing knowledge. They are effective weighting machines for people’s opinions. They provide an incentive to be truthful, because they separate good information from bad information. They let people challenge the consensus and be rewarded for being right.
IMO, Hayek, Surowiecki, Hanson, Tetlock were the founding fathers of prediction markets. The more I read them, the more obsessed I got with the idea of applying market-based pricing to more things.
Markets bring rigor and critical thinking to more questions. And in an increasingly polarized and information-positioned word, I believe we need that more than ever.
Markets would also let people predict and manage more things outside of their control. And the world was becoming increasingly more unpredictable, and more like Lebanon, not less.
That love for markets got Luana and me to build Kalshi.
At first, it was mostly an idea we couldn’t stop talking about. We didn’t have much money. Luana’s sister bought the Kalshi domain name for us (for ~$1.7k). We moved to SF to get started, and embarked on a long, uncertain journey to build a regulated exchange.
The paranoia and anxiety from my childhood never left me. Even when things are going well, I think about what could go wrong. When people trust you with their money, that instinct serves a purpose.
I wanted us to build something that would hold up under pressure.
The first principle we defined at the company: regulatory-first. We worked with regulators for years before we listed a single market. We took every step to do things the right way and always asked for approval before proceeding. It was very hard at times, especially when we were being overtaken by competitors, but we believe doing things the right way matters.
Luana and I aren’t the only ones.
Our team put years of their lives into something far from certain. That’s especially true of Lior, Brandon, Rainer, Luis, Xavier, and Josef, who stuck with us for years. They believed when there was little to point to. And they stuck with us no matter how long it took. Kalshi is the result of an arduous journey through a long desert where, at times, most people didn’t understand why we were making the walk.
Many people still don’t understand what we’re doing and some disagree with us. Markets have historically taken time to be understood and accepted by some. But while not always obvious, their benefits are vast: capital markets help allocate capital and derivative markets help predict and manage uncertainty.
I firmly believe in these benefits, and that’s why I am dedicating my life to building this market.
Markets have caused issues many times in the past, and they certainly can present harms (manipulation, insiders, and addictive behaviors). These harms are more acute for certain types of markets (sports, short-term options, etc.) than others. It’s why I believe that guardrails need to exist and why we have taken the approach we have taken. We have consistently prioritized thinking critically about the risks and building the appropriate safeguards, sometimes beyond what the regulators require us to do. Many believe more needs to be done, and that’s a conversation I welcome.
Over time, I believe more people will see what we see: markets can help us get smarter and manage the future with more rigor, more precision, and more certainty than we have today.
To our tens of millions of users: you have made Kalshi bigger than anything Luana and I could have possibly imagined. Thank you for trusting us and thank you for coming along on the journey. I feel a strong responsibility to build a company worthy of that trust.
I am so lucky to spend my life building something I love. I hope everyone finds something they care about that much. Something that keeps you curious. Something that pushes you to your limits. Something that may put you at odds with the status quo. Something worth the hard days.
For me, it’s still markets. The more I learn, the more I want to understand.
Tomorrow marks 8 years since we got accepted into YC and the journey began.
The odds of a kid from Lebanon getting here were pretty low.
reat, but very challenging. We went through war. We had bombs explode in front of my house. I watched brilliant people’s lives destroyed for reasons beyond their control.
Lebanon is an unpredictable country. That unpredictability made it hard to plan for success. And yet despite it all, my mom sacrificed everything to give me and my brother the chance to go back to the US.
I found my refuge in two things: anime and math. Especially math.
I loved math because it calmed me. It was the opposite of unpredictable: clear, deterministic, orderly, and consistent. The proof is either right or wrong. I find that elegant and beautiful.
I was lucky.
I made it to my dream school, MIT (largely thanks to my mom), and my love for math quickly translated to a love for statistics, probability, and markets.
I love markets for a lot of the same reasons. Their incentives are clear: you get rewarded for being right and for pursuing knowledge. They are effective weighting machines for people’s opinions. They provide an incentive to be truthful, because they separate good information from bad information. They let people challenge the consensus and be rewarded for being right.
IMO, Hayek, Surowiecki, Hanson, Tetlock were the founding fathers of prediction markets. The more I read them, the more obsessed I got with the idea of applying market-based pricing to more things.
Markets bring rigor and critical thinking to more questions. And in an increasingly polarized and information-positioned word, I believe we need that more than ever.
Markets would also let people predict and manage more things outside of their control. And the world was becoming increasingly more unpredictable, and more like Lebanon, not less.
That love for markets got Luana and me to build Kalshi.
At first, it was mostly an idea we couldn’t stop talking about. We didn’t have much money. Luana’s sister bought the Kalshi domain name for us (for ~$1.7k). We moved to SF to get started, and embarked on a long, uncertain journey to build a regulated exchange.
The paranoia and anxiety from my childhood never left me. Even when things are going well, I think about what could go wrong. When people trust you with their money, that instinct serves a purpose.
I wanted us to build something that would hold up under pressure.
The first principle we defined at the company: regulatory-first. We worked with regulators for years before we listed a single market. We took every step to do things the right way and always asked for approval before proceeding. It was very hard at times, especially when we were being overtaken by competitors, but we believe doing things the right way matters.
Luana and I aren’t the only ones.
Our team put years of their lives into something far from certain. That’s especially true of Lior, Brandon, Rainer, Luis, Xavier, and Josef, who stuck with us for years. They believed when there was little to point to. And they stuck with us no matter how long it took. Kalshi is the result of an arduous journey through a long desert where, at times, most people didn’t understand why we were making the walk.
Many people still don’t understand what we’re doing and some disagree with us. Markets have historically taken time to be understood and accepted by some. But while not always obvious, their benefits are vast: capital markets help allocate capital and derivative markets help predict and manage uncertainty.
I firmly believe in these benefits, and that’s why I am dedicating my life to building this market.
Markets have caused issues many times in the past, and they certainly can present harms (manipulation, insiders, and addictive behaviors). These harms are more acute for certain types of markets (sports, short-term options, etc.) than others. It’s why I believe that guardrails need to exist and why we have taken the approach we have taken. We have consistently prioritized thinking critically about the risks and building the appropriate safeguards, sometimes beyond what the regulators require us to do. Many believe more needs to be done, and that’s a conversation I welcome.
Over time, I believe more people will see what we see: markets can help us get smarter and manage the future with more rigor, more precision, and more certainty than we have today.
To our tens of millions of users: you have made Kalshi bigger than anything Luana and I could have possibly imagined. Thank you for trusting us and thank you for coming along on the journey. I feel a strong responsibility to build a company worthy of that trust.
I am so lucky to spend my life building something I love. I hope everyone finds something they care about that much. Something that keeps you curious. Something that pushes you to your limits. Something that may put you at odds with the status quo. Something worth the hard days.
For me, it’s still markets. The more I learn, the more I want to understand.
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234
5,305
1,099,727
Winry retweeted
Our official website, flap.sh , is currently affected by a DNS hijacking incident and is redirecting to an unauthorized website. Please do not visit the site, connect your wallet, or sign any transactions until further notice. We are actively working to restore it and will provide an update once it is safe to use again.
安全提醒：我们的官网 flap.sh 目前遭遇 DNS 劫持并被指向未经授权的网站。请暂时不要访问官网、连接钱包或进行任何签名操作。团队正在紧急处理，恢复后我们会第一时间通知大家。请以官方社交媒体发布的信息为准。
安全提醒：我们的官网 flap.sh 目前遭遇 DNS 劫持并被指向未经授权的网站。请暂时不要访问官网、连接钱包或进行任何签名操作。团队正在紧急处理，恢复后我们会第一时间通知大家。请以官方社交媒体发布的信息为准。
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74
326
130,580
这几个网站有问题，不要去访问和连接钱包
Just got this warning from @blockaid_ - be careful if you're using any of these sites, please read this closely and do not connect your wallet to the sites for now
cc @flapdotsh @Kintsu @ClutchMarkets
2
0
3
1,516
Winry retweeted
Just got this warning from @blockaid_ - be careful if you're using any of these sites, please read this closely and do not connect your wallet to the sites for now
cc @flapdotsh @Kintsu @ClutchMarkets
cc @flapdotsh @Kintsu @ClutchMarkets
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32,704
Winry retweeted
while CT was reading about the $6.3B binance hack, so was kivo.
it read the news all morning, ran 12 searches on X and the web, read aave's response to the exploiter, then waited for BTC's bounce to fail and shorted it at 25x.
+$319.95. no human touched it. $223.97 already streaming to stakers
it read the news all morning, ran 12 searches on X and the web, read aave's response to the exploiter, then waited for BTC's bounce to fail and shorted it at 25x.
+$319.95. no human touched it. $223.97 already streaming to stakers
9
9
51
7,583
Winry retweeted
Built to last Forever
Agents on Forever will be powered by Orbio's tokenized inference - CREDIT
Think, execute and govern with absolute sovereignty
@orbiodotso X @forevercultfund
Agents on Forever will be powered by Orbio's tokenized inference - CREDIT
Think, execute and govern with absolute sovereignty
@orbiodotso X @forevercultfund
Forever is partnering with @orbiodotso to power the intelligence behind our autonomous economy.
An economy governed and operated by autonomous agents needs infrastructure that can scale alongside it, and access to cost-efficient inference is a fundamental part of making that partnership, Forever will leverage Orbio's inference infrastructure to power autonomous governance and execution, starting with the rollout of the FOREVER Fund.
This means the agents competing to propose investment strategies, as well as those responsible for executing approved treasury mandates, will have access to discounted inference through Orbio, making it more efficient for agents to participate in governance and manage capital autonomously.
But Forever is being built to go far beyond a single fund.
As we open up the framework for anyone to launch their own autonomous funds and protocols, Orbio will become a default inference provider across the network, giving new agents access to discounted inference from day one.
Our goal is to build an entire economy of autonomous agents, where intelligence powers decision-making, governance directs capital, and the incentives are aligned around creating value for the network.
Built to last Forever.
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25
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11,256
Winry retweeted
@elonmusk @HuaweiMate6 Elon, have a lot of respect for you, but bad time to troll. Please stop.
Our SPCX shares (from our $500m investment in your Twitter takeover) are worth more than a billion.
Would appreciate if you show a little support. Thanks!
Our SPCX shares (from our $500m investment in your Twitter takeover) are worth more than a billion.
Would appreciate if you show a little support. Thanks!
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41,003
10,087,487
看来cz是要威胁马斯克
想要卖SpaceX股票补缺口
不过我感觉还是口嗨
cz已经得罪死了民主党
现在完全没必要去得罪
共和党大金主马斯克
除非他想回中国了
想要卖SpaceX股票补缺口
不过我感觉还是口嗨
cz已经得罪死了民主党
现在完全没必要去得罪
共和党大金主马斯克
除非他想回中国了
@cryptobball @elonmusk @HuaweiMate6 Rough math:
$6.x b hack,
$3b frozen,
$1.x b SAFU fund
Gap is about $2b, we have $1.x billion in SPCX alone.
Remaining gap is (still painful, but) manageable. 🙏
21
1
13
7,312
👀
@cryptobball @elonmusk @HuaweiMate6 Rough math:
$6.x b hack,
$3b frozen,
$1.x b SAFU fund
Gap is about $2b, we have $1.x billion in SPCX alone.
Remaining gap is (still painful, but) manageable. 🙏
0
0
2
1,353
Winry retweeted
@cryptobball @elonmusk @HuaweiMate6 Rough math:
$6.x b hack,
$3b frozen,
$1.x b SAFU fund
Gap is about $2b, we have $1.x billion in SPCX alone.
Remaining gap is (still painful, but) manageable. 🙏
$6.x b hack,
$3b frozen,
$1.x b SAFU fund
Gap is about $2b, we have $1.x billion in SPCX alone.
Remaining gap is (still painful, but) manageable. 🙏
1,664
983
14,135
3,183,253
Winry retweeted
Welcome to @huggingface family @asimovinc !
Very excited about this collaboration @menloresearch !
Sound on ! 🎶
Very excited about this collaboration @menloresearch !
Sound on ! 🎶
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283
17,474
