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Tim Starr is an autodidact writer and independent thinker exploring the deep interplay between **economic liberty** and **military defense**. Through his Substack, *Free Markets and Firepower*, he examines how free markets generate prosperity while credible firepower secures the conditions for liberty to thrive—rejecting both naive pacifism and unchecked statism.
His essays blend rigorous historical analysis, counterfactual reasoning, and libertarian principles, tackling topics like the true drivers of the Industrial Revolution, WWII logistics and American power, the role of public goods in a free society, critiques of influential libertarian theorists, and the necessity of strategic strength in an imperfect world.
On X (@timstarr2001), Tim delivers sharp, no-holds-barred commentary on foreign policy, individual rights, historical myths, and current events—always grounded in incentives, evidence, and a clear-eyed defense of freedom against ideological capture or folly.
A long-time observer of ideas and power, he values systems that align incentives with reality: markets for creation, resolve for protection. Follow him for thoughtful takes that treat liberty as a practical achievement, not a slogan.
His essays blend rigorous historical analysis, counterfactual reasoning, and libertarian principles, tackling topics like the true drivers of the Industrial Revolution, WWII logistics and American power, the role of public goods in a free society, critiques of influential libertarian theorists, and the necessity of strategic strength in an imperfect world.
On X (@timstarr2001), Tim delivers sharp, no-holds-barred commentary on foreign policy, individual rights, historical myths, and current events—always grounded in incentives, evidence, and a clear-eyed defense of freedom against ideological capture or folly.
A long-time observer of ideas and power, he values systems that align incentives with reality: markets for creation, resolve for protection. Follow him for thoughtful takes that treat liberty as a practical achievement, not a slogan.
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Tim Starr retweeted
Phil - there is obviously no question “America” hates it and “voters” hate it. But what is most striking, is how much the people hate it who were supposed to be the beneficiaries of it. American manufacturers hate it, working class Americans hate it, and perhaps more than anyone, small business hates it.
A reminder to @oren_cass that America hates your tariff agenda. And this one is from the NBC exit polls:
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Tim Starr retweeted
Hi JD, since you're explaining why Republicans lost the midterms, there's something I'd really like you to explain.
Just recently, you publicly defended your friendship with Tucker Carlson and confirmed that the two of you still speak.
Then, days before the election, Tucker told 100 million people that Trump is considering a nuclear strike on Iran, supposedly based on inside sources in the administration. He even claims to know what you're personally advising the president.
And you haven't said a word about it.
Now, I'm not suggesting you're Tucker's source. But the fact that you've publicly acknowledged your friendship and ongoing communication with him puts a pretty enormous spotlight on you.
Tucker Carlson is a habitual liar. He lies constantly, contradicts himself, and has spent the past few years telling Americans how wonderful Russia and Qatar are while painting the most miserable picture imaginable of America. His entire operation is dedicated to convincing Americans that their country is hopeless and their enemies are somehow more admirable.
Now he's spreading panic about an impending nuclear war just days before an election, and people who ordinarily despise him are suddenly treating him as a credible journalist. (Even Christiane Amanpour amplified him!)
And you're telling us that the war is why Republicans lost, without so much as acknowledging what your own friend was telling tens of millions of Americans right before they voted.
If you know Tucker is lying, why haven't you publicly called him out? And why would you want to remain friends with someone who is knowingly spreading such an outrageous lie about the administration you serve in?
And there's another thing about your post that doesn't make sense to me. If you still believe that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is vital to American national security, then shouldn't you be apologizing to Americans for failing to make that case?
I understand that Americans are frustrated with the war and the price they're paying at the pump. But if you genuinely believe we're dealing with a threat of this magnitude, surely your responsibility as vice president is to explain why confronting it is necessary, including why Americans might have to endure some economic pain in the process.
Instead, you're now treating public frustration as though it settles the question of whether the war was justified in the first place.
If you believe the threat can be dealt with later, explain how. If you believe diplomacy can still work (as Tucker claims), explain what happens when Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Are we supposed to accept a nuclear Iran because gas is expensive? What happens if Iran starts charging tolls in the Strait of Hormuz after America leaves?
And if you never believed this war was necessary in the first place, then I think you owe Americans an explanation for a number of your own public statements defending the administration's position. I understand that a vice president has obligations to the president, but that doesn't explain away your own words or your role in shaping policy.
You were personally involved in these negotiations. You had an enormous platform to explain the stakes to Americans. If you believe this was necessary for our national security and Americans rejected it because they didn't understand why, then that is also a failure of leadership, including yours.
And I'm tired of watching anyone who questions you immediately accused of being an Israeli operative, Israel First, or secretly paid by Israel.
If you think I'm wrong, address what I'm saying.
I don't think anyone being intellectually honest can look at this situation and pretend there aren't some very serious questions about Vance's conduct here.
Just recently, you publicly defended your friendship with Tucker Carlson and confirmed that the two of you still speak.
Then, days before the election, Tucker told 100 million people that Trump is considering a nuclear strike on Iran, supposedly based on inside sources in the administration. He even claims to know what you're personally advising the president.
And you haven't said a word about it.
Now, I'm not suggesting you're Tucker's source. But the fact that you've publicly acknowledged your friendship and ongoing communication with him puts a pretty enormous spotlight on you.
Tucker Carlson is a habitual liar. He lies constantly, contradicts himself, and has spent the past few years telling Americans how wonderful Russia and Qatar are while painting the most miserable picture imaginable of America. His entire operation is dedicated to convincing Americans that their country is hopeless and their enemies are somehow more admirable.
Now he's spreading panic about an impending nuclear war just days before an election, and people who ordinarily despise him are suddenly treating him as a credible journalist. (Even Christiane Amanpour amplified him!)
And you're telling us that the war is why Republicans lost, without so much as acknowledging what your own friend was telling tens of millions of Americans right before they voted.
If you know Tucker is lying, why haven't you publicly called him out? And why would you want to remain friends with someone who is knowingly spreading such an outrageous lie about the administration you serve in?
And there's another thing about your post that doesn't make sense to me. If you still believe that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is vital to American national security, then shouldn't you be apologizing to Americans for failing to make that case?
I understand that Americans are frustrated with the war and the price they're paying at the pump. But if you genuinely believe we're dealing with a threat of this magnitude, surely your responsibility as vice president is to explain why confronting it is necessary, including why Americans might have to endure some economic pain in the process.
Instead, you're now treating public frustration as though it settles the question of whether the war was justified in the first place.
If you believe the threat can be dealt with later, explain how. If you believe diplomacy can still work (as Tucker claims), explain what happens when Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Are we supposed to accept a nuclear Iran because gas is expensive? What happens if Iran starts charging tolls in the Strait of Hormuz after America leaves?
And if you never believed this war was necessary in the first place, then I think you owe Americans an explanation for a number of your own public statements defending the administration's position. I understand that a vice president has obligations to the president, but that doesn't explain away your own words or your role in shaping policy.
You were personally involved in these negotiations. You had an enormous platform to explain the stakes to Americans. If you believe this was necessary for our national security and Americans rejected it because they didn't understand why, then that is also a failure of leadership, including yours.
And I'm tired of watching anyone who questions you immediately accused of being an Israeli operative, Israel First, or secretly paid by Israel.
If you think I'm wrong, address what I'm saying.
I don't think anyone being intellectually honest can look at this situation and pretend there aren't some very serious questions about Vance's conduct here.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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Tim Starr retweeted
The scale of the Republican defeat is so great that it makes the race for the GOP presidential nomination wide open.
If the administration had won a big victory, Vice President J D Vance would have had an enormous argument to be the inevitable nominee.
Now, with this go-slow strategy blowing up in Iran and his defense of Vivek Ramaswamy's horrible, inhumane ad featuring his opponent's mother attacking her own daughter, a good bit of the luster has come off the bloom.
The number of people who want to draft Secretary of State Marco Rubio is staggering.
In addition, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis, Pete Hegseth, Glenn Youngkin, and a surprising number of people may decide this is their chance to take advantage of the chaos of the shocking defeat and seek to be the champion who can rescue the party and the country.
If the administration had won a big victory, Vice President J D Vance would have had an enormous argument to be the inevitable nominee.
Now, with this go-slow strategy blowing up in Iran and his defense of Vivek Ramaswamy's horrible, inhumane ad featuring his opponent's mother attacking her own daughter, a good bit of the luster has come off the bloom.
The number of people who want to draft Secretary of State Marco Rubio is staggering.
In addition, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis, Pete Hegseth, Glenn Youngkin, and a surprising number of people may decide this is their chance to take advantage of the chaos of the shocking defeat and seek to be the champion who can rescue the party and the country.
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Tim Starr retweeted
By the way, when I say “realignment with the Democrats on economics and foreign policy,” I’m talking about policy as a weapon of politics, not as a way to make nice with Democrats.
The intention was to steal Democratic voters as a weapon to kill off the Reagan and fusionist conservatives in the GOP.
It actually did work for a while. The Reagan conservatives were marginalized. And it was indeed the successful blue collar “working class” strategy that attracted independent voters and even some minorities.
But not any more. Trump blew the working class alliance with the tariffs, self-dealing, corruption, and cronyism.
It’s time to return to our roots. Not only because it is right but because it is necessary to win.
The intention was to steal Democratic voters as a weapon to kill off the Reagan and fusionist conservatives in the GOP.
It actually did work for a while. The Reagan conservatives were marginalized. And it was indeed the successful blue collar “working class” strategy that attracted independent voters and even some minorities.
But not any more. Trump blew the working class alliance with the tariffs, self-dealing, corruption, and cronyism.
It’s time to return to our roots. Not only because it is right but because it is necessary to win.
I saw Vance’s post explaining why they lost. Yes, the Iran War was at the top of his list as expected.
But he also insisted that Trump’s voters switched to the Democrats and implied that they did so because the administration had not been strong enough not only on the war but on economic populism.
You can see what he is doing here. He is suggesting that he and the GOP should be doing more of what Democrats want, on the war and economy.
In other words, continue the realignment with Democrats on economics and foreign policy. And now maybe even immigration.
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Tim Starr retweeted
The claim that the Iran war was the main cause of the blue tsunami is unfounded.
Yes, it did not help. But the exit polls show only 4% ranked foreign policy as their top issue.
Almost 40% said economics was the top issue, and tariffs were their top economic objection.
Yes, it did not help. But the exit polls show only 4% ranked foreign policy as their top issue.
Almost 40% said economics was the top issue, and tariffs were their top economic objection.
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Tim Starr retweeted
This is a total hoot.
About the only thing it gets correct is that 2024 Trump voters were "pissed." As the polls spell out, very clearly, they were angry about tariffs--a word weirdly not found in this post, but which exit polls showed 65% of voters dislike. There's a straight line between those punishing costs and Senate losses in Kansas, Iowa, Ohio (farm areas) and beyond.
Angry the WH instead spent this past year talking about ballrooms and the Kennedy center. Frustrated by the complete absence of a next-two-year agenda (85% are concerned by healthcare costs. Where is the GOP plan?)
They are also unhappy about the war, though the numbers might be different if the president been clear about an exit strategy. And not sure where the "smartest" (and most anonymous) pollster in the world got the Israel argument. Exit polls show that of the 51% of voters who said our support for Israel was "too strong," only 19% of even that subset of respondents were Republican. The vast majority of GOP voters said our support for Israel was "just right" or "not strong enough."
Amusing to claim the problem here was traditional conservatives, as they were sidelined. Tillis was run out of the party, dooming NC. As was Cornyn. The WH had a pure expression of its second-term Trump/Vance agenda and loyalty in its chosen candidate of Ken Paxton. That would be the smoking carcass sitting on a 12-point loss in. . . Texas of all places. Meanwhile, who exactly is even talking about "asylum"? That's just a smear-y effort to preemptively shut down valid criticism.
The GOP strength has always been in its coalition--free-marketers, defense hawks, cultural conservatives. Trump's first-term success came from largely following that Reagan playbook. The second-term leaned into me-too progressive populism--at the veep's urging--and it ain't working.
The weird thing is that the veep remains more obsessed with remaking the party than with winning. Winning will require a lot better understanding of what happened yesterday than what is on offer in this alternate-universe view.
About the only thing it gets correct is that 2024 Trump voters were "pissed." As the polls spell out, very clearly, they were angry about tariffs--a word weirdly not found in this post, but which exit polls showed 65% of voters dislike. There's a straight line between those punishing costs and Senate losses in Kansas, Iowa, Ohio (farm areas) and beyond.
Angry the WH instead spent this past year talking about ballrooms and the Kennedy center. Frustrated by the complete absence of a next-two-year agenda (85% are concerned by healthcare costs. Where is the GOP plan?)
They are also unhappy about the war, though the numbers might be different if the president been clear about an exit strategy. And not sure where the "smartest" (and most anonymous) pollster in the world got the Israel argument. Exit polls show that of the 51% of voters who said our support for Israel was "too strong," only 19% of even that subset of respondents were Republican. The vast majority of GOP voters said our support for Israel was "just right" or "not strong enough."
Amusing to claim the problem here was traditional conservatives, as they were sidelined. Tillis was run out of the party, dooming NC. As was Cornyn. The WH had a pure expression of its second-term Trump/Vance agenda and loyalty in its chosen candidate of Ken Paxton. That would be the smoking carcass sitting on a 12-point loss in. . . Texas of all places. Meanwhile, who exactly is even talking about "asylum"? That's just a smear-y effort to preemptively shut down valid criticism.
The GOP strength has always been in its coalition--free-marketers, defense hawks, cultural conservatives. Trump's first-term success came from largely following that Reagan playbook. The second-term leaned into me-too progressive populism--at the veep's urging--and it ain't working.
The weird thing is that the veep remains more obsessed with remaking the party than with winning. Winning will require a lot better understanding of what happened yesterday than what is on offer in this alternate-universe view.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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Tim Starr retweeted
Vance never supported the war and his view on it led him to being hornswoggled by the Iranians into a deal they would never live up to, and didn't.
“I wouldn’t call it a war.”
JD Vance said that in September when asked whether the Iran war would be over before the midterms.
He said there was no active shooting, with major combat long over.
Today he says the war cost Republicans the midterms and the “I told you so” crowd was right.
The effort to quiet the war began in June, when Vance sold a 60-day deal that collapsed in 3 weeks.
What followed was a blockade and sanctions, with the admin seeking to avoid major escalation before Election Day. Iran kept threatening shipping anyway and Republicans paid for it.
Now the people who sold the quiet war call the result proof the war was wrong to begin with.
Suppose Trump had secured the Strait, broken Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping and set their nuke program back years, all inside 6 months.
Do Republicans still lose Senate seats in Texas and Kansas?
If victory was impossible, name the constraint that made it so. “Iraq” and “neocon” aren't constraints.
The election is a verdict on the war Trump fought. A finished war was never on the ballot.
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Tim Starr retweeted
Matt Walsh calls this the most honest assessment he has read. You should all read it. And then maybe you will see what honesty requires and that both of these men refuse to do it.
Start with Vance's method. A team of data analysts obsessing over electorate composition, pollsters asked to explain the loss after it happens, a survey handed to defecting voters asking what would bring them back. This is the technique of a pragmatist. A man of principle could not care less about polls. He cares about ideas and whether they are right or wrong, and he would rather lose every election in his lifetime doing the right thing than win a single one doing the wrong thing. He holds a standard, measures his actions against it, and knows before the returns come in whether he governed by it. Victory means nothing to him if the price is his principles, because a victory won by abandoning what is right is a defeat in everything that matters. That is not what is happening here. These men are asking the crowd what it feels because they have no idea what is true, then adjusting their convictions to match the answer. Ayn Rand named this method decades ago. When men abandon reason as their guide, the opinion survey becomes their substitute for thought.
Observe what the assessment leaves out entirely. Not one word about tariffs, a tax on Americans that the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional and the administration reimposed under a different statute, running through two years of roughly 6% cumulative inflation. Not one word about roughly 30 government equity stakes in private companies, which is socialism practiced by the party that claims to oppose it. Not one word about a brand new universal entitlement, two trillion dollar deficits, or a 40 trillion dollar debt. "Focus on cost of living" appears as a polling answer with no causal analysis attached, because the causal analysis indicts their own record. The most honest assessment somehow misses every policy the voters threw them out over.
Then Vance's 4 conclusions which are out of context slogans which are meaningless as such. The reason we lost is the war. Half true and twisted. Hitting the regime that has waged war on us for 47 years was right and four decades overdue. What voters watched afterward was the goal line surrender, a so called deal championed by the appeaser Vance, who stood at Lake Lucerne praising the framework as the foundation for a final agreement while it waived Iran's oil sanctions and released $12 billion in frozen assets to a regime left standing, with our forces still taking fire in the strait. The failure is not that we fought. The failure is that we paid the enemy and called it peace while they still shoot at us to this day. And buried at answer four is the actual agenda, change our relationship to Israel. This disgusting faction of the Republican party that cannot define socialism while its administration practices it has one firm conviction, pushing away the only free nation in the region, our one reliable ally against the theocracy we are trying to buy off, just as Obama did. At least Obama dropped the pallets of cash for all to see.
This is why Republicans and Democrats keep winning in alternating cycles while freedom loving Americans lose a little more freedom each time. Both parties govern by the same premises, spending, controls, entitlements, state stakes in industry. Neither offers an alternative, so voters punish whoever stands closest to the wreckage while the wreckage keeps growing.
The pollsters then measure the anger and recommend sharper messaging, and Walsh pronounces the measurement honest.
Honesty is the refusal to fake reality. An assessment that evades tariffs, socialism, and a bought off theocracy while blaming the one thing done partly right is not honest. It is a crowd reading performed by men who long ago stopped checking their premises against anything but each other.
Start with Vance's method. A team of data analysts obsessing over electorate composition, pollsters asked to explain the loss after it happens, a survey handed to defecting voters asking what would bring them back. This is the technique of a pragmatist. A man of principle could not care less about polls. He cares about ideas and whether they are right or wrong, and he would rather lose every election in his lifetime doing the right thing than win a single one doing the wrong thing. He holds a standard, measures his actions against it, and knows before the returns come in whether he governed by it. Victory means nothing to him if the price is his principles, because a victory won by abandoning what is right is a defeat in everything that matters. That is not what is happening here. These men are asking the crowd what it feels because they have no idea what is true, then adjusting their convictions to match the answer. Ayn Rand named this method decades ago. When men abandon reason as their guide, the opinion survey becomes their substitute for thought.
Observe what the assessment leaves out entirely. Not one word about tariffs, a tax on Americans that the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional and the administration reimposed under a different statute, running through two years of roughly 6% cumulative inflation. Not one word about roughly 30 government equity stakes in private companies, which is socialism practiced by the party that claims to oppose it. Not one word about a brand new universal entitlement, two trillion dollar deficits, or a 40 trillion dollar debt. "Focus on cost of living" appears as a polling answer with no causal analysis attached, because the causal analysis indicts their own record. The most honest assessment somehow misses every policy the voters threw them out over.
Then Vance's 4 conclusions which are out of context slogans which are meaningless as such. The reason we lost is the war. Half true and twisted. Hitting the regime that has waged war on us for 47 years was right and four decades overdue. What voters watched afterward was the goal line surrender, a so called deal championed by the appeaser Vance, who stood at Lake Lucerne praising the framework as the foundation for a final agreement while it waived Iran's oil sanctions and released $12 billion in frozen assets to a regime left standing, with our forces still taking fire in the strait. The failure is not that we fought. The failure is that we paid the enemy and called it peace while they still shoot at us to this day. And buried at answer four is the actual agenda, change our relationship to Israel. This disgusting faction of the Republican party that cannot define socialism while its administration practices it has one firm conviction, pushing away the only free nation in the region, our one reliable ally against the theocracy we are trying to buy off, just as Obama did. At least Obama dropped the pallets of cash for all to see.
This is why Republicans and Democrats keep winning in alternating cycles while freedom loving Americans lose a little more freedom each time. Both parties govern by the same premises, spending, controls, entitlements, state stakes in industry. Neither offers an alternative, so voters punish whoever stands closest to the wreckage while the wreckage keeps growing.
The pollsters then measure the anger and recommend sharper messaging, and Walsh pronounces the measurement honest.
Honesty is the refusal to fake reality. An assessment that evades tariffs, socialism, and a bought off theocracy while blaming the one thing done partly right is not honest. It is a crowd reading performed by men who long ago stopped checking their premises against anything but each other.
This is maybe the most thorough and honest diagnosis of an election defeat that we’ve ever seen from a politician at Vance’s level. And he’s right.
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Tim Starr retweeted
A stinging rebuttal to J. D. Vance and his admirers. Very much worth a read, especially on the Iran war.
Matt Walsh calls this the most honest assessment he has read. You should all read it. And then maybe you will see what honesty requires and that both of these men refuse to do it.
Start with Vance's method. A team of data analysts obsessing over electorate composition, pollsters asked to explain the loss after it happens, a survey handed to defecting voters asking what would bring them back. This is the technique of a pragmatist. A man of principle could not care less about polls. He cares about ideas and whether they are right or wrong, and he would rather lose every election in his lifetime doing the right thing than win a single one doing the wrong thing. He holds a standard, measures his actions against it, and knows before the returns come in whether he governed by it. Victory means nothing to him if the price is his principles, because a victory won by abandoning what is right is a defeat in everything that matters. That is not what is happening here. These men are asking the crowd what it feels because they have no idea what is true, then adjusting their convictions to match the answer. Ayn Rand named this method decades ago. When men abandon reason as their guide, the opinion survey becomes their substitute for thought.
Observe what the assessment leaves out entirely. Not one word about tariffs, a tax on Americans that the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional and the administration reimposed under a different statute, running through two years of roughly 6% cumulative inflation. Not one word about roughly 30 government equity stakes in private companies, which is socialism practiced by the party that claims to oppose it. Not one word about a brand new universal entitlement, two trillion dollar deficits, or a 40 trillion dollar debt. "Focus on cost of living" appears as a polling answer with no causal analysis attached, because the causal analysis indicts their own record. The most honest assessment somehow misses every policy the voters threw them out over.
Then Vance's 4 conclusions which are out of context slogans which are meaningless as such. The reason we lost is the war. Half true and twisted. Hitting the regime that has waged war on us for 47 years was right and four decades overdue. What voters watched afterward was the goal line surrender, a so called deal championed by the appeaser Vance, who stood at Lake Lucerne praising the framework as the foundation for a final agreement while it waived Iran's oil sanctions and released $12 billion in frozen assets to a regime left standing, with our forces still taking fire in the strait. The failure is not that we fought. The failure is that we paid the enemy and called it peace while they still shoot at us to this day. And buried at answer four is the actual agenda, change our relationship to Israel. This disgusting faction of the Republican party that cannot define socialism while its administration practices it has one firm conviction, pushing away the only free nation in the region, our one reliable ally against the theocracy we are trying to buy off, just as Obama did. At least Obama dropped the pallets of cash for all to see.
This is why Republicans and Democrats keep winning in alternating cycles while freedom loving Americans lose a little more freedom each time. Both parties govern by the same premises, spending, controls, entitlements, state stakes in industry. Neither offers an alternative, so voters punish whoever stands closest to the wreckage while the wreckage keeps growing.
The pollsters then measure the anger and recommend sharper messaging, and Walsh pronounces the measurement honest.
Honesty is the refusal to fake reality. An assessment that evades tariffs, socialism, and a bought off theocracy while blaming the one thing done partly right is not honest. It is a crowd reading performed by men who long ago stopped checking their premises against anything but each other.
367
501
4,102
560,261
Tim Starr retweeted
@DrewLgb3000 @MZHemingway Republicans voted at normal midterm levels.
Democrats voted at presidential election levels.
Cause they understand the threat Trump poses to them better than the right understands the opportunity.
Democrats voted at presidential election levels.
Cause they understand the threat Trump poses to them better than the right understands the opportunity.
2
10
86
1,087
Tim Starr retweeted
Thank you @PhilWMagness for putting it in extra big letters for those in the back
This is an ABC News voter poll conducted from Oct 19 to Nov 3, 2026.
Don't fall for the psyop, people.
Breathe some fresh air. Touch grass.
6
20
70
6,534
Tim Starr retweeted
Contra the "demographics is destiny" argument, men—even young white men in particular—shifted much harder than Latinos. Trump lost these voters on the economy, the war, and corruption.
The "podcast bros," whatever you think about them, were actually an early warning sign.
The "podcast bros," whatever you think about them, were actually an early warning sign.
122
154
1,247
91,153
Tim Starr retweeted
From exit polls, the percentage of voters who ranked a particular issue a "crucial or major factor" in deciding their vote, followed by the percentage of them who voted Democrat:
90% Government corruption (56%)
89% Cost of living (58%)
74% Iran (63%)
73% Immigration enforcement policies (46%)
56% AI/Data centers (64%)
foxnews.com/elections/poll…
90% Government corruption (56%)
89% Cost of living (58%)
74% Iran (63%)
73% Immigration enforcement policies (46%)
56% AI/Data centers (64%)
foxnews.com/elections/poll…
71
49
165
25,402
Tim Starr retweeted
Foreign policy need not be neocon, isolationist, colonial, empire-building or UN-deferential. And, FFS, America First doesn’t result in America first by sticking your head in the sand.
Get a real philosophy of foreign intervention.
Get a real philosophy of foreign intervention.
0
2
3
624
Tim Starr retweeted
This was the biggest mistake—but close behind is fighting a war so incompetently a year later. He has to be the least intelligent statesman in US history.
Trump should never have gotten involved in the 12 Day War. He should have let Israel fight that war to its conclusion back then.
Israel was fighting alone and ready to finish the job themselves, but for whatever reason Trump inserted himself and stopped them.
Had he not done that, maybe the IRGC would have been defeated long before 2026.
I will never understand it. x.com/mindjitsu/stat…
21
38
244
13,560
Tim Starr retweeted
The GOP actually didn’t do that badly by average midterm standards.
Dems voted like it was a presidential election because unlike the retard right who think “nothings happening” the left understood how existential Trumps actions are for them.
Dems voted like it was a presidential election because unlike the retard right who think “nothings happening” the left understood how existential Trumps actions are for them.
It wasn't the war...mathmatically.
Take TX.
Abbott got 58k fewer votes in 2026 than in 2022
Gina H in 2026 got 1.5 MILLION more than Beto in 2022!
GOP votes weren't down that much. 2026 Abbot would have easily beaten 2022 Beto.
Dems numbers were up.
Thats the problem.
27
169
1,627
55,899
Tim Starr retweeted
It wasn't the war...mathmatically.
Take TX.
Abbott got 58k fewer votes in 2026 than in 2022
Gina H in 2026 got 1.5 MILLION more than Beto in 2022!
GOP votes weren't down that much. 2026 Abbot would have easily beaten 2022 Beto.
Dems numbers were up.
Thats the problem.
Take TX.
Abbott got 58k fewer votes in 2026 than in 2022
Gina H in 2026 got 1.5 MILLION more than Beto in 2022!
GOP votes weren't down that much. 2026 Abbot would have easily beaten 2022 Beto.
Dems numbers were up.
Thats the problem.
Yawn. You aren’t going to hear apologies from me for defending President Trump and his policies.
We took a drubbing, the President will have to change course, but if you think your endless sperging out will give you the right to gatekeep the coalition you are sorely mistaken
124
142
1,750
303,196
1) Win the war, fast, like should've already been done.
2) Screw tariffs.
2) Screw tariffs.
BREAKING: Vice President JD Vance says "the reason we lost is the Iran War," in his first statement on the US midterm election results.
Vance says a top pollster asked Trump/Vance 2024 voters who switched to Democrats what would bring them back, and the top answers were:
1. End the war
2. Focus on cost of living/inflation
3. Put America First
4. Change our relationship to Israel
"To the people who are pissed off and want to say, 'I told you so': you're right, you did tell us so," Vance says.
3
7
44
716
