Tim New

@timdnew

Nov 4

JD Vance

@JDVance

Nov 4

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

Tim New

@timdnew

Nov 4

Steve Cortes

@SteveCortes

Nov 4

He's right.

We can rebuild the America First coalition but that means ending the Iran War, getting back to the successful pre-war trajectory of rising wages and falling prices, and making the American Dream attainable again.

Focus on solving the problems at home, not overseas.

Tim New

@timdnew

Nov 4

David Seiler

@daveseiler

Nov 4

You lost because you didn't codify DOGE, you didn't arrest anyone for Covid-the laptop-the raid-J6, etc, you didn't pass the Save Act, you didn't stop the fraud and abuse that's rampant, etc, etc, etc

Tim New

@timdnew

Nov 3

Visegrád 24

@visegrad24

Nov 3

Abdul El-Sayed has reached 77% on Polymarket US.

He could become the first Muslim U.S. Senator in history.

Tim New

@timdnew

Nov 3

Fred Aaron is Pops Culture

@fredforthemets

Nov 2

I fear that whatever the outcome tomorrow night, things will not be good for the Jewish community here in America.

If the Democrats lose, they will blame the Jews and their objections to Abdul El-Sayed, using it as an excuse to double down on the growing antisemitism and scapegoating of Israel in the Party.

If the Republicans lose, they will also blame it on the Jews, questioning whether continued support for Israel makes sense, especially when so many Jews continued to support the Democrats regardless of the Party’s growing antisemitic wing, while the Democrats will feel that they lost nothing by turning against the Jews.

Heads we lose; tails they win.

Tim New

@timdnew

Nov 3

Anna Wong

@AnnaEconomist

Nov 3

One “clearing” aspect of the midterms, to me, would be revealing what is really driving long-end Treasuries.

How it moves in response to this expected blue sweep will be very revealing about the underlying drivers.

Does it move down as a Blue sweep may mean lower deficit spending?

Or does it move up as a Blue sweep raises the risk of further strangling the AI buildout/ growth, thus worsening the fiscal trajectory for the US?

F.X. Regan

@FXRegan

Nov 2

Matt Walsh

@MattWalshBlog

Nov 2

I’m not at all shy about blaming DEI where appropriate, and it often is appropriate. But I see no DEI angle on this jet crash. The female pilot was not flying the plane. The captain was a 55 year old man. Trying to blame the girl for the crash is absurd and baseless. Yes she seemed frantic and terrified in the radio call but I would be to, and so would you. And even if she’d been cool as a cucumber, there isn’t the slightest reason to think it would have made any difference at all.

I’ll fully admit that I wouldn’t get in a plane if the copilot was a 20 year old girl. But that doesn’t change the fact that there is no evidence that she was personally at fault. And for the record, becoming a pilot at 20 is pretty impressive. She had her shit together a lot more than I did at that age. I’ll say that at least. I don’t think airlines or private charter companies should be making any specific effort at all to be “inclusive” of women or whatever, but it’s still admirable for a kid to have a goal like that and pursue it. I don’t see any reason to mock her, as some have done.

Some of the comments about that audio recording have been callous to an unhuman degree. None of you would have the stoicism in that situation that you demand from this girl. And again, there’s no reason to think stoicism would have magically kept the plane from falling out of the sky. Besides, she actually did seem pretty calm in that recording until the last few seconds, relative to the circumstance she was in. I don’t want my pilot to panic but I also don’t want them to be completely indifferent to the prospect of a fatal crash, as some commenters here apparently expect.

Tim New

@timdnew

Oct 31

Zachary Hall

@WxZachary

Oct 31

HOG FANS: showers moving through the region now, some heavy!

It’s likely that at minimum scattered activity holds on through the evening hours and during the football game against Mizzou.

I’m hopeful for some periodic dry time, but bringing rain gear isn’t a bad idea.

Go @JohnNaborsShow

Tim New

@timdnew

Oct 31

Polymarket

@Polymarket

Oct 31

BREAKING: James Talarico soars to new high in Texas Senate election odds, just 3 days before the midterms.

70% chance Texas flips blue.

🔗 polymarket.com/r/TXSen26