Buying health would solve this. overcomingbias.com/p/buy-health-u…
JUST IN: California rehab operators accused of supplying illegal drugs to recovering addicts to keep them hooked & collect over $210 million from insurers.
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Global warming is now blocking an ice age that had been already starting. Yay.
Here’s a rather extraordinary discovery: humanity seems to have interrupted the beginning of the next ice age. We thought it might happen in the future, but the evidence suggests it's already happened.
A new study in Science argues that the next major glaciation had already rs ago, before modern warming reversed the trend in the 20th century.
The evidence comes from the Barnes Ice Cap on Baffin Island, the last surviving remnant of the enormous Laurentide Ice Sheet that once covered much of Canada and reached as far south as Illinois.
Because Barnes is frozen directly to its bedrock, advancing ice buries and preserves vegetation beneath it. Researchers radiocarbon dated plants emerging as the ice retreats to reconstruct its history.
They found that after melting to a minimum extent around 3,000 years ago, the ice began expanding again about 2,000 years ago. The researchers interpret this as the earliest stage of the next glacial period.
Left to natural orbital cycles, that cooling would have unfolded extremely slowly, potentially taking tens of thousands of years to rebuild a continent spanning ice sheet.
But around 1960, the trend reversed. Summers became warm enough that Barnes began losing more ice than it gained, despite Northern Hemisphere summer sunlight continuing to slowly decline in a way that should favor renewed glaciation. Greenhouse warming had (thankfully) overwhelmed the natural cooling tendency.
The Barnes ice cap may now disappear entirely within the next few centuries, removing the final remnant of an ice sheet that repeatedly served as the nucleus for much larger glaciations.
There is a remarkable deep time perspective here. For millions of years, orbital cycles have pushed Earth between warmer interglacials and colder glacial periods. According to this study, that ancient cycle had started turning once again.
Then, in the geological equivalent of an instant, humanity pushed hard enough in the opposite direction to stop it.
Just so we're clear, this is a very very good thing.
📸 Geology Sciences
Sources:
1) phys.org/news/2026-10-g…
2) science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
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Actually, people could reasonably subsidize decision markets on their personal life choices, which would likely advise them to avoid excess gambling. x.com/TheCinesthetic…
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"I grieve that I have things in my heard that I have not been able to express fully, and I am ashamed to think that after I am gone my writings will not be known to posterity." Amen.
Sima Qian’s letter to his friend explaining his painful choice of castration over suicide to finish his grand history of China.
"It is the nature of every man to love life and hate death, to think of his relatives and look after his wife and children. Only when a man is moved this not so. Then there are things that he must do. … The brave man does not always die for honor, while even the coward may fulfill his duty."
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"Robin Hanson [said] 'You don’t have winners unless you have losers. And so you need a lot of losers to fund the winners,' he said, arguing that markets could be built differently if someone were willing to pay for the information they produce." next.io/news/features/…
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That is, we now get accurate financial market prices via taxing fools, but we could instead just subsidize markets to pay for that info. Yes the fools volunteer to be taxed, but even so we are making a choice here.
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In addition, the superforecaster folks have shown that markets with only winning traders, without the fools, would be more accurate.
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In buyer/seller, employer/employee, investor/funded relations the person giving $ acts dominant, while other party acts submissive. Yet in all 3 cases both sides have similar negotiating power. Why the asymmetric dominance framing of largely symmetric relations?
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Claude points out counter examples: "Tenants pay landlords and act submissive. Taxpayers pay governments. Patients pay doctors, clients pay lawyers, students pay professors,"
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Vouching would solve this. overcomingbias.com/p/who-vouches-…
"psychopaths were 2.5 times more likely to be conditionally released than non-psychopaths...the psychopath is able to use his finely honed skills of deception to convince prison officials to release him early...fooled by the psychopath's mask of sanity" ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
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One of the worst things about academics is when they insist that only evidence/analysis that meets their demanding standards has any value at all. All else should count as zero. If the world were run on that standard, it would grind to a halt.
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Robin Hanson retweeted
Election integrity is important. That is why is time that Congress (and state congresses) turns it attention to regulating polls. Not prediction markets, polls. (1/n)
politico.com/news/2026/10/2…
politico.com/news/2026/10/2…
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Apparently, even though markets & models on politics are getting better, polls are getting worse. More misleading polls pushed by interested parties, less money for careful good polls.
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Median 16% chance that you would prefer the median morals/values of world elites 50yrs from now, over your morals/values today.
What is the chance that, if you studied them carefully, you would prefer the median morals/values of world elites 50yrs from now, over your morals/values today?
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"intermediaries face adverse selection from imperfect valuation. Faster [housing] transactions increase liquidity but reduce information, limiting intermediation." journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
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Robin Hanson retweeted
Looking forward to this debate with @robinhanson at @TheSohoForum on January 28
eventbrite.com/e/soho-forum-d…
eventbrite.com/e/soho-forum-d…
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Robin Hanson retweeted
WHAT DOES THE SILENCE REALLY SAY?
In the Great Silence – a documentary about the Fermi "paradox". Coming soon.
FT: @ProfAviLoeb, Nick Bostrom, Edward Witten, Liu Cixin,@jilltarter @robinhanson @david_kipping @skdh @romanyam @ChrisKMellon @michaelshermer @donalddhoffman @MickWest @anderssandberg @ProfSaraSeager @thenightshirt @DavidBrin @LordMartinRees, Nick Lane, Kevin Knuth, Stephen Webb, Peter Ward, Nathalie Cabrol, Michael Garrett, Jane Greaves, Daniel Angerhausen @jodrellbank
In the Great Silence – a documentary about the Fermi "paradox". Coming soon.
FT: @ProfAviLoeb, Nick Bostrom, Edward Witten, Liu Cixin,@jilltarter @robinhanson @david_kipping @skdh @romanyam @ChrisKMellon @michaelshermer @donalddhoffman @MickWest @anderssandberg @ProfSaraSeager @thenightshirt @DavidBrin @LordMartinRees, Nick Lane, Kevin Knuth, Stephen Webb, Peter Ward, Nathalie Cabrol, Michael Garrett, Jane Greaves, Daniel Angerhausen @jodrellbank
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"Robin Hanson’s early arguments that properly designed markets encourage bold and heterodox projects are persuasive, and betting markets have a long record of producing good results." harpers.org/archive/2026/1…
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"For this reason I want to sound the alarm: prediction markets’ promise is being squandered. … offer insiders opportunities … the solution is obvious: end anonymity. This would reduce insider trading and carry out Hanson’s original goals, giving experts and outsiders alike incentives to validate their claims, theories, and models."
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