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ok so the midterms happened and everyone's calling it bullish. democrats took the house and the senate.
stocks ripped, dow +2%, nasdaq +2.5%. 10y down to ~4.9%. the dollar index slid to a 1-month low. gold back above $4k. everyone seem to be happy
but there’s something bugging hows ~80% odds the fed HIKES in december - hikes. not cuts. the election didn't change inflation. the fed doesn't care who won the senate. friday's payrolls matters more than any of these races, honestly
and look at where yields actually fell. the long end dropped more than the 2y. that's the market saying less fiscal chaos ahead, so the extra yield it wants on long bonds comes down. the 2y is the fed, and the fed barely moved. so if you're reading this as rates are going lower... it's not that. it's a long-bond trade, not a fed one
also tariffs don't sit with congress. trump keeps his veto too. congress can investigate and block budgets, but it can't really undo trade policy. so "gridlock fixes everything" feels a bit early
and the rupee barely moved, 94.74 to 94.64. the dollar fell and the rupee shrugged. oil and foreign outflows are still what's driving it, and if the fed hikes, the rate gap gets worse for INR. the reuters poll median still says 96 by end-jan
so here are my calls, screenshot this and roast me later:
- fed hikes 25bp in dec
- shutdown or budget scare before end-jan
-rupee weaker than 95 at end-jan
- gold stays above $4k through dec

unless payrolls blows out
idk, maybe gridlock is bullish. or maybe markets just priced the easy part and the fed shows up with the bill in december
what am i missing?

(not investment advice)

rbi just deleted a form for indian freelancers 👇

- if you’re paid in dollars, you don’t need separate EDF anymore
- your bank's payment details count as filing it
- backdated to apply from 1 oct 2026
- same for businesses, same deal it up to ₹10 lakh per payment

So finally llars. we take those as a step in accepting the move towards internet natives economy

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