October was a great month.
US is working - Crypto, combos, squads, website added past few months, mobile app much slicker, etc...
DeFi is growing YoY despite adding Fees.
We're not perfect, and still have work to do, but things are working as we transition from a non-revenue l to a sustainable business.
US is working - Crypto, combos, squads, website added past few months, mobile app much slicker, etc...
DeFi is growing YoY despite adding Fees.
We're not perfect, and still have work to do, but things are working as we transition from a non-revenue l to a sustainable business.
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2,176
The markets on Polymarket react within seconds of CPI reports being published.
Pretty impressive how fast these algo traders gobble up info and react.
Great chart & analysis @PavelPavlyuh
Pretty impressive how fast these algo traders gobble up info and react.
Great chart & analysis @PavelPavlyuh
How fast does Polymarket react to big US news? I checked every trade to find out.
First, the setup.
Every month the US government publishes key numbers: inflation (CPI) and the jobs report. They come out at exactly 8:30:00 AM New York time. Before that second, nobody knows the you can bet on what the number will be. Each option has a price between 0¢ and $1. The price is basically the crowd's guess of the odds: 48¢ means "about a 48% chance". If you're right, your share pays $1.
So I took 33 of these releases in 2026 and looked at every single trade, second by second, around 8:30.
What happens at 8:30:00
→ The second before: the correct answer is priced at 48¢ on average. A coin flip. Nobody knows.
→ 7 seconds later: the first trades hit
→ 9 seconds later: the correct answer is above 90¢
→ 27 seconds later: it's at 99¢. Done.
In less than half a minute, thousands of people's money agrees on the truth. That's faster than most news sites can publish the headline.
A real example
Before the July jobs report, "the US will lose jobs this month" was priced at 0.3¢. Almost nobody believed it.
Then the report came out: the US did lose jobs.
Within seconds that 0.3¢ option was worth almost $1. Anyone holding it made ~300x.
How good is the crowd before the news?
→ Inflation: the favorite won 13 times out of 17. Pretty good.
→ Jobs: only 3 out of 9. Jobs data is very hard to guess.
→ Fed rate decisions: 7 out of 7. The market was ~99.6% sure every time, hours before the announcement.
Who moves the price
Only 217 wallets traded in the first 10 seconds after a release. 26 of them did it again and again, on 5 or more releases. A small group of very fast traders sets the price for everyone else.
The takeaway
A TV pundit can say anything and lose nothing. On Polymarket, people put real money behind their guess, and when the facts arrive, the price corrects in seconds. That's why these odds are worth watching.
@primo_data curious if this matches what you see in the data 😁
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1,021
Primo Data retweeted
Wow... this is insane! congratulations @shayne_coplan!
BREAKING: Polymarket was right.
98.4% of resolved midterm races went to the Polymarket favorite the day before Election Day.
419 of 426.
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56,818
Election Night coverage will never be the same.
It ended quick in 2026 as it did in 2024.
See how fast the markets swung towards Hinojosa once polls closed in Texas.
It ended quick in 2026 as it did in 2024.
See how fast the markets swung towards Hinojosa once polls closed in Texas.
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1,548
Those are the days we work so hard for.
- Polymarket predicted (most) major races and called them well before
MSM
- Exchanges/websites/apps operated smoothly
- Great livestream and content
- PM OGs celebrating their Ws
Couldn’t sleep. I live for that shit!
- Polymarket predicted (most) major races and called them well before
MSM
- Exchanges/websites/apps operated smoothly
- Great livestream and content
- PM OGs celebrating their Ws
Couldn’t sleep. I live for that shit!
Today's an exciting day for prediction markets.
It's not necessarily about the volume (although I'm tracking), but more about the predictive power.
I got into PMs because I'm a believer. I did this shit for free before hired by Poly. This shit is fun. Excited for tonight.
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80
3,733
Crazy how slow MSM is.
Polymarket called this an hour ago...
Polymarket called this an hour ago...
Democrat Gina Hinojosa will become the first Latina governor of Texas, CNN projects, ending the more than three-decade Republican hold on the seat. Follow live updates: cnn.it/4iVuTUS
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42
20,878
This Livestream is extremely well done.
Shoutout to the team at Poly & All-In who put together.
Check out in app or on our website: polymarket.us
Shoutout to the team at Poly & All-In who put together.
Check out in app or on our website: polymarket.us
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30
1,723
First wave of polls are closing
Always interesting to see how fast the markets react
40pt swing to Ford, biggest swing thus far
polymarket.us/event/ushr-in-…
Always interesting to see how fast the markets react
40pt swing to Ford, biggest swing thus far
polymarket.us/event/ushr-in-…
Big spike for the Dem in Kentucky 6, but I don't see any official data anywhere
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23
1,576
Polymarket's Open Interest breakdown for the Midterms
Both exchanges $100M+
Data as of 5:30pm EST
Both exchanges $100M+
Data as of 5:30pm EST
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0
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206
Today's an exciting day for prediction markets.
It's not necessarily about the volume (although I'm tracking), but more about the predictive power.
I got into PMs because I'm a believer. I did this shit for free before hired by Poly. This shit is fun. Excited for tonight.
It's not necessarily about the volume (although I'm tracking), but more about the predictive power.
I got into PMs because I'm a believer. I did this shit for free before hired by Poly. This shit is fun. Excited for tonight.
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105
7,536
Primo Data retweeted
Chat with the All-In team ahead of tonight's stream & see how the crowd is calling it.
Join the squad 👇
polymarket.us/squad/join/Xa9…
Join the squad 👇
polymarket.us/squad/join/Xa9…
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2
12
11,458
Primo Data retweeted
BREAKING: You can now trade Anthropic before its IPO on Polymarket Perps👇
Anthropic ($ANT) Pre-IPO Perp is now live on Polymarket Perps
Up to 10x leverage. No market hours. No expiry.
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47,391
Primo Data retweeted
ANNOUNCING: The first Polymarket Perps Trading Competition.
$50K paid out to the top 50 traders on Polymarket Perps, with 3× boosted scoring on Anthropic pre-IPO ($ANT)
Live now through Nov 16.
Join here: polymarket.com/r/perps-comp
$50K paid out to the top 50 traders on Polymarket Perps, with 3× boosted scoring on Anthropic pre-IPO ($ANT)
Live now through Nov 16.
Join here: polymarket.com/r/perps-comp
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399
396,107
Primo Data retweeted
BREAKING: Nearly half of Polymarket Build Your Map traders have picked the same Senate map.
🔴 Republicans hold IA & KS
🔵 Democrats take MI, OH, ME, AK, & TX
9% chance this exact map hits.
Build yours here: polymarket.com/r/BYM26
🔴 Republicans hold IA & KS
🔵 Democrats take MI, OH, ME, AK, & TX
9% chance this exact map hits.
Build yours here: polymarket.com/r/BYM26
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