Chris O'Brien retweeted
Today, I published my analysis of @AnthropicAI’s S-1, tracing the investment case, the assumptions behind my valuation, and the risks that could change my view.
$ANT officially launched its roadshow today and appears to be targeting a valuation between $1.2T to $1.4T.
My own range.
If everything an investor has to believe about the company holds, the equity is worth about $2.24 trillion before the offering. Once I price the ten events (Single Points of Failure) that could break the case even if those beliefs hold, it is worth about $1.51 trillion.
The stakes surrounding this listing extend far beyond Anthropic.
A listing this size gives public investors something they have not had before: the filed accounts of a U.S. frontier lab. And because Anthropic sits at the heart of an ecosystem of financial partnerships, the future of a vast array of companies is now tied to its success or failure.
And yet, analyzing this company presents a unique challenge. Anthropic is something we haven't seen before. It's a software company with the balance sheet of a utility.
I think Anthropic has a credible path to becoming one of the defining companies of this cycle. But 2027 is going to be a major test, as compute obligations put intense pressure on revenue growth to pay the bills.
In the latest episode of the AGNT Podcast with @GemmaAllenSays, we discussed my views on how to think about Anthropic's valuation, its revenues, compute challenges, financing, and how to measure the right benchmarks.
Read the full analysis from Decoding Discontinuity and download the 30-page teardown here: decodingdiscontinuity.com/p/anthropic-s1…
cc: @furrier @bjbaumann2014 @NYSE @NYSEWired @SiliconANGLE
$ANT officially launched its roadshow today and appears to be targeting a valuation between $1.2T to $1.4T.
My own range.
If everything an investor has to believe about the company holds, the equity is worth about $2.24 trillion before the offering. Once I price the ten events (Single Points of Failure) that could break the case even if those beliefs hold, it is worth about $1.51 trillion.
The stakes surrounding this listing extend far beyond Anthropic.
A listing this size gives public investors something they have not had before: the filed accounts of a U.S. frontier lab. And because Anthropic sits at the heart of an ecosystem of financial partnerships, the future of a vast array of companies is now tied to its success or failure.
And yet, analyzing this company presents a unique challenge. Anthropic is something we haven't seen before. It's a software company with the balance sheet of a utility.
I think Anthropic has a credible path to becoming one of the defining companies of this cycle. But 2027 is going to be a major test, as compute obligations put intense pressure on revenue growth to pay the bills.
In the latest episode of the AGNT Podcast with @GemmaAllenSays, we discussed my views on how to think about Anthropic's valuation, its revenues, compute challenges, financing, and how to measure the right benchmarks.
Read the full analysis from Decoding Discontinuity and download the 30-page teardown here: decodingdiscontinuity.com/p/anthropic-s1…
cc: @furrier @bjbaumann2014 @NYSE @NYSEWired @SiliconANGLE
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Oh, great...now we'll never get the truth about Frazzledrip!
GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert will lose reelection to Democrat Eileen Laubacher, CNN projects, ending the conservative firebrand's tenure in Congress and flipping Colorado's 4th District. cnn.it/3VgTevp
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This is 2024: projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/org…
They contributed: $159.7M
Donated: $109.7M
$82.5M to Schwab Charitable Fund.
Which is a Donor-Advised Fund: givingcompass.org/donor-resource…
Which is "How Tech Billionaires Hack Their Taxes With a Philanthropic Loophole":
nytimes.com/2018/08/03/bus…
They contributed: $159.7M
Donated: $109.7M
$82.5M to Schwab Charitable Fund.
Which is a Donor-Advised Fund: givingcompass.org/donor-resource…
Which is "How Tech Billionaires Hack Their Taxes With a Philanthropic Loophole":
nytimes.com/2018/08/03/bus…
Jensen and his wife, Lori, just funded a massive charitable foundation with $6 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
By the way!
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If you think you are having a bad day, at least you did not lose $1 trillion in market cap over the past month.
While much remains unknown about the Jensen Huang situation, it's fair to say $NVDA stock has been under pressure even before the disclosure this weekend:
Market cap one month ago: $5.536T
Market cap inter-day trading: $4.203T
Down: 24.08%
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There is a cohort of Silicon Valley techbros whose immediate reaction to the Jensen Huang news was to brush it aside as "just" an affair but no way there were any actual secrets leaked. So, let's return to the NY Times story that broke this open to understand the scandal:
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Realize I forgot to include the link to the NY Times story:
nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/…
nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/…
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One other PS: Jensen admitted to having an affair with a woman who was a top executive at a company that is a customer of Nvidia. He then lied about it internally. That alone would get a lot of CEOs fired.
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