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30+ years in deep value — including CIO under David Dreman. AI is priced for perfection. Hard assets — gold, silver, copper, uranium, energy — we expect much higher over time. Global value still trades at despair. Margin of safety first. Public takes only. Not advice.
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Cliff Hoover retweeted
Anthropic
2025 revenue: $4.6 billion
2025 net loss: -$42 billion
IPO valuation: $2 trillion
2025 revenue: $4.6 billion
2025 net loss: -$42 billion
IPO valuation: $2 trillion
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Cliff Hoover retweeted
all you need to know: Anthropic ducked Q3 in its S-1.
that omission tells you all you need. demand has drop, economics haven’t gotten worse. and a company that is allegedly built around trust is trying to skirt the truth.
—-
quote is from @zerohedge
that omission tells you all you need. demand has drop, economics haven’t gotten worse. and a company that is allegedly built around trust is trying to skirt the truth.
—-
quote is from @zerohedge
Anthropic's S-1 Is Out: A $974 Million Operating Profit, An $800 Billion Compute Bill, And Elon Musk As Landlord zerohedge.com/ai/anthropics-…
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Elon Musk, Sunday on X: "As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers." Then: "That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation."
Now CoreWeave's own June 10-Q. Total debt: $35.6 billion. Q2 revenue was $2.58 billion and net interest expense was $640 million. First-half capex was $14.1 billion against $3.7 billion of operating cash flow. Three customers made up 72% of Q2 revenue. Net loss for the six months was $1.37 billion.
That's a business that needs the debt window open every single quarter, and Musk says it's shut.
Wall Street has played this movie before. For God's sake, people, remember history. Not advice.
Now CoreWeave's own June 10-Q. Total debt: $35.6 billion. Q2 revenue was $2.58 billion and net interest expense was $640 million. First-half capex was $14.1 billion against $3.7 billion of operating cash flow. Three customers made up 72% of Q2 revenue. Net loss for the six months was $1.37 billion.
That's a business that needs the debt window open every single quarter, and Musk says it's shut.
Wall Street has played this movie before. For God's sake, people, remember history. Not advice.
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From 2021 through 2025, Meta spent $148.6 billion buying back its own stock. Its 10-Qs show zero buybacks so far in 2026. Now it plans to sell up to $95 billion of new stock, $60 billion of it in non-voting Class C shares that don't trade yet. Five years spent shrinking the share count, and now they're handing it right back. Zuckerberg keeps the votes and you get the dilution. Not advice.
Good for META. Now let's see everyone else's equity offering
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Cliff Hoover retweeted
Honored to coach these guys
Grapevine Faith head basketball coach Scott Hyde joined us at RevoStudios for Coaches Corner to discuss the Lions’ growth, increased confidence and expectations heading into the new season.
With a year of experience under their belts, Hyde is giving his players more freedom to sting them to make decisions and embrace their strengths on both ends of the floor.
As the Lions turn the page, Hyde is seeing a new level of maturity, leadership and intensity throughout the program.
All that and much more in this can’t-miss Coaches Corner interview!
Catch the full Coaches Corner interview with Coach Scott Hyde on the Revocruit YouTube Channel.
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Tesla's Q3: $982 million of stock comp after tax, $787 million of GAAP net income. The stock handed to employees cost more than everything left for shareholders, and the market still pays 425 times trailing earnings. At HCM we always ask what the price already assumes. Not advice.
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Cliff Hoover retweeted
$TSLA recognized a net $447M in Q3 gross profit from one-time tariff refunds, which accounted for over 61% of Q3 EBIT, meaning its core biz generated an EBIT margin of just 1.0%, & pro-forma non-GAAP EPS of 38c missed Wall Street’s 44c est. Why is this being ignored by the media?
SpaceX said on Thursday that its stake in Elon Musk’s The Boring Co. netted the company an investment gain of $561 million during the third quarter.
The gain accounted for more than half of SpaceX’s “other income” in the period and boosted its net income, which landed at just //t.co/ns7WzMSFex
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This is the part the "they have plenty of cash" crowd skips. Capex hits the cash flow statement now and the income statement years later. Meta just went cash-flow negative, and the depreciation bill hasn't even started showing up. Not advice.
Worth noting: depreciation starts when a facility starts operating, not during construction. MS estimates ~40% of ‘26 AI capex becomes operational b/t ‘27 & ‘29, so by 2030 the hyperscalers’ annual depreciation charges will run from $500B-$1T, per Capital Gearing Asset Mgmt.
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Week before last, traders poured a record $6.1 billion into SOXL, the 3x leveraged chip fund. Thursday it fell 20.5%.
I watched this happen in 2000. The last money in shows up with leverage, right after the best headlines.
Meta beat earnings Thursday and still fell 7%, because than it brings in. When good news can't lift a stock, the price had already assumed the good news.
For God's sake, people, remember history. Not advice.
I watched this happen in 2000. The last money in shows up with leverage, right after the best headlines.
Meta beat earnings Thursday and still fell 7%, because than it brings in. When good news can't lift a stock, the price had already assumed the good news.
For God's sake, people, remember history. Not advice.
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Wall Street has played this movie before. In 1972 the Nifty Fifty were the stocks you could buy at any price and hold forever. Polaroid traded at 90 times earnings and Avon at 65. By 1974 Polaroid was down about 90% and Avon about 86%. Both were great companies, and the price was the problem. Today's shiny objects are the AI chip makers, plus Apple at 40 times. For God's sake, people, remember history. Not advice.
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Meta just created a non-voting Class C stock, effective Jan 19, 2027. Its own filing says the shares are for 'capital raising' and warns that debt on the scale management had in mind could hurt its credit ratings. Q3 free cash flow came in at negative $2.12 billion, against a $135–145 billion capex plan. When the cash machine starts printing stock certificates, the AI bill has come due. Not advice.
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Lam Research just reported record revenue of $8.22 billion, and the stock fell about 10% at the open. The chip ETF SMH hit about 20% off its high this morning.
When a record quarter can't lift the stock, the price had already counted it. For scale, the Philadelphia chip index 0 to October 2002.
At HCM we always ask what the price already assumes. Not advice.
When a record quarter can't lift the stock, the price had already counted it. For scale, the Philadelphia chip index 0 to October 2002.
At HCM we always ask what the price already assumes. Not advice.
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Nvidia's Jensen Huang sees no memory glut through 2029: "You can always use more." Nvidia buys memory. Micron makes it. Micron's quarterly revenue fell from $8.6 billion in mid-2022 to $3.7 billion nine months later, with a $2.3 billion loss. Every memory peak sounds this sure of itself. Not advice.
Nvidia's Jensen Huang says he sees no sign of a 2029 memory glut: 'You can always use more' cnbc.com/2026/10/22/jen…
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A Tesla–SpaceX merger would be two drunks holding each other up. One closed yesterday at 425 times earnings, and more than half its Q3 profit was interest on its cash. The other spent $48.1 billion on capex in nine months against $13.1 billion of operating cash flow. Not advice.
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CoreWeave's own 10-Q backs Kuppy up. Borrowings went from $21.4 billion at year-end to $35.1 billion by June 30, $7.5 billion is due within a year, and first-half operating cash flow covered about a quarter of its $14.1 billion of capex. The lenders are paying for this boom now. Not advice.
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Cliff Hoover retweeted
$TSLA updated an old friend. $1.5trn market cap. $2bn cumulative core FCF since inception (red bars). Best described as a $100bn run-rate revenue science project that never has and never will make money.
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Cliff Hoover retweeted
$SPCX Shareholders, you sure you want to buy this 5% ROIC business for $1.5T…?!
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