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I've been watching self-driving tech grow in Palo Alto for over a decade. Cybercabs are about to be everywhere.
Here's what I'm building so regular people can own the fleet. @remountco
Here's what I'm building so regular people can own the fleet. @remountco
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Jonas retweeted
Tesla has put a robotaxi owner's timeline and targets on the record. The terms an owner would sign have not come up yet.
We read Tesla's last four earnings calls against an owner's checklist and sorted each item three ways. Stated means Tesla described how it works. Targeted or a number it is aiming for. Open means no figure on any call.
Stated. Existing Tesla owners will have the chance to add their cars to the fleet or take them out, "kind of like how Airbnb works," Elon Musk said in January. In October, Ashok Elluswamy said the only added requirement is that "the customer Model Ys can be part of the geofences and the fleet management that Tesla has for it to be fully autonomous."
Targeted. In January, Elon put a Cybercab's expected use at probably 50 or 60 hours a week. Asked in October about the cost per paid Robotaxi mile, CFO Vaibhav Taneja named a 30-cent goal, said Tesla is not there today and said he sees a path to it. Lars Moravy said Tesla is trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of 2026, starting small. Ashok said Tesla suspects some of the first customer cars could join the Robotaxi fleet around Q2 2027.
Open. The Cybercab's price, the owner's share of each fare, insurance terms and upkeep for owner cars. None has a figure on any of the four calls.
That order makes sense to us. Tesla is working toward its targets on its own fleet first, and owner terms would have to come before customer cars join next year. Those terms are what turn Tesla's targets into an owner's numbers.
We will be listening for them on the next call.
The October call's ownership stretch runs under three minutes, from 30:23.
remount.co/transcripts/te…
We read Tesla's last four earnings calls against an owner's checklist and sorted each item three ways. Stated means Tesla described how it works. Targeted or a number it is aiming for. Open means no figure on any call.
Stated. Existing Tesla owners will have the chance to add their cars to the fleet or take them out, "kind of like how Airbnb works," Elon Musk said in January. In October, Ashok Elluswamy said the only added requirement is that "the customer Model Ys can be part of the geofences and the fleet management that Tesla has for it to be fully autonomous."
Targeted. In January, Elon put a Cybercab's expected use at probably 50 or 60 hours a week. Asked in October about the cost per paid Robotaxi mile, CFO Vaibhav Taneja named a 30-cent goal, said Tesla is not there today and said he sees a path to it. Lars Moravy said Tesla is trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of 2026, starting small. Ashok said Tesla suspects some of the first customer cars could join the Robotaxi fleet around Q2 2027.
Open. The Cybercab's price, the owner's share of each fare, insurance terms and upkeep for owner cars. None has a figure on any of the four calls.
That order makes sense to us. Tesla is working toward its targets on its own fleet first, and owner terms would have to come before customer cars join next year. Those terms are what turn Tesla's targets into an owner's numbers.
We will be listening for them on the next call.
The October call's ownership stretch runs under three minutes, from 30:23.
remount.co/transcripts/te…
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Shanghai's draft taxi law is out for public comment, and one line tells the city to promote the safe use of autonomous driving in the taxi industry, with the transport and police departments guiding it.
The same draft, per Chinese coverage, keeps a cap on total taxi numbers and ut to public bidding.
The robotaxis already there run through the old taxi companies. Dazhong has 5 driverless Baidu cars in Pudong and 38 more with safety drivers in Jiading. Jinjiang runs Pony.ai cars in Jiading.
If the cap holds, a robotaxi in Shanghai needs an operating right before it needs a passenger. Dazhong's shares hit the daily limit on the news.
The same draft, per Chinese coverage, keeps a cap on total taxi numbers and ut to public bidding.
The robotaxis already there run through the old taxi companies. Dazhong has 5 driverless Baidu cars in Pudong and 38 more with safety drivers in Jiading. Jinjiang runs Pony.ai cars in Jiading.
If the cap holds, a robotaxi in Shanghai needs an operating right before it needs a passenger. Dazhong's shares hit the daily limit on the news.
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Tesla's Robotaxi opened in Fort Worth at 6am Monday with no safety monitor in the car. About 143 square miles, from downtown out to White Settlement, Benbrook and Saginaw. It's the seventh unsupervised city, and the first new one since Orlando and Tampa in late July.
The Fort e. Fifteen minutes from the Near Southside to West 7th, $8.98. The app canceled the trip first, then charged the $8.98 three times.
Billing bugs like that are cheap to fix. Next on Tesla's list are San Antonio, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Jacksonville.
The Fort e. Fifteen minutes from the Near Southside to West 7th, $8.98. The app canceled the trip first, then charged the $8.98 three times.
Billing bugs like that are cheap to fix. Next on Tesla's list are San Antonio, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Jacksonville.
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Great analysis
Tesla is building the Cybercab business as its own fleet first, and that order matters for anyone who wants to own a robotaxi later.
We read all 72 Cybercab mentions on Tesla's last four earnings calls. Production started in April, and Elon Musk said early output would be "very Taneja said "we've started doing Cybercab rides in our factory in Austin." In October, Elon said the Austin Cybercab fleet "has grown by a factor of 10 since launch about a month ago."
Every one of those cars is Tesla's. Lars Moravy said the Cybercabs coming off the Texas line are "currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet." He also said "the actual capacity of that vehicle line is significantly higher" than its listed rate, and "Right now, we're building at the rate that the Robotaxi service needs the vehicles."
The way we read it, the factory no longer sets the pace. The fleet does, and a fleet is where the operating costs live. Vaibhav described them in October: "we are also learning from the operational experience of managing a fleet, pick up and drop off, you know, cleaning, all those things. So all those costs are being dialed in."
This is the owner's angle. The costs that decide what a robotaxi earns are being worked out on Tesla's own cars, in Austin first, before customer Cybercabs arrive.
How many reach customers is still open. Lars said Tesla will "start small" and is "trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026." In the same exchange Elon set Cybercab apart from "the cars that you'd want to own, like the 3 and the Y". As we read it, a Cybercab is not a personal car. It is built to sell rides on Tesla's network, whoever holds the title. Customer Model Ys have their own path in.
The next thing to look for is an operating number from that fleet, utilization or cost per ride, as Cybercab reaches more cities.
The customer ownership exchange starts 30:23 into the October call.
remount.co/transcripts/te…
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Waymo's next robotaxi is a Toyota. The bZ4X will be built at Toyota's Takaoka plant in Aichi, and Waymo's hardware goes in under the same roof as the rest of the car. Testing starts in Japan in 2027, with the UK and other Waymo markets in the years after.
The Jaguar I-Pace most roduction, and Waymo is already bringing in the Zeekr-built Ojai and Hyundai's Ioniq 5. Toyota is the next one.
The driver stays the same from car to car. The car keeps changing. The line in the announcement I'd watch: the two companies will also look at the same tech for Toyotas people own themselves.
The Jaguar I-Pace most roduction, and Waymo is already bringing in the Zeekr-built Ojai and Hyundai's Ioniq 5. Toyota is the next one.
The driver stays the same from car to car. The car keeps changing. The line in the announcement I'd watch: the two companies will also look at the same tech for Toyotas people own themselves.
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I had no idea that Terraforms by @mathcastles were made of frogs. Level 14 at {46,39} in the @FLAMINGODAO collection. gm.
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NHTSA wants a standard color for "a computer is driving this car." It picked cyan.
The proposal, announced October 23, sets specs for optional cyan marker lamps covering color, where they mount, when they switch on and how visible they are. NHTSA says the point is to signal to sers when an automated system is in control. The same proposal drops the manual turn signal, hazard and beam switch requirements for cars built only for the computer to drive, a car like the Cybercab with no wheel or pedals. Comments run 30 days from the Federal Register notice.
Optional is the word I'd watch. A light that only some fleets turn on tells a cop less than one every fleet does.
The proposal, announced October 23, sets specs for optional cyan marker lamps covering color, where they mount, when they switch on and how visible they are. NHTSA says the point is to signal to sers when an automated system is in control. The same proposal drops the manual turn signal, hazard and beam switch requirements for cars built only for the computer to drive, a car like the Cybercab with no wheel or pedals. Comments run 30 days from the Federal Register notice.
Optional is the word I'd watch. A light that only some fleets turn on tells a cop less than one every fleet does.
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BMW has now moved a million cars around its factories with nobody inside. About 3,500 moves a day across four plants, with Oxford the newest and Spartanburg in South Carolina scheduled for 2027.
The sensors live in the building. BMW mounted lidar throughout the plants and runs the cloud, so a brand-new car with no autonomy hardware of its own steers around workers and other vehicles to its next station. At Oxford it now parks itself beside the lifting gear for the next job.
How long before a parking garage works this way?
The sensors live in the building. BMW mounted lidar throughout the plants and runs the cloud, so a brand-new car with no autonomy hardware of its own steers around workers and other vehicles to its next station. At Oxford it now parks itself beside the lifting gear for the next job.
How long before a parking garage works this way?
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"Paccar is risk averse." That's Aurora's CFO, David Maday, telling Bloomberg why the trucks Paccar builds for Aurora still carry a person in the cab. The ones International builds run with nobody aboard.
Aurora also said this week it will miss its goal of 200 driverless trucks and now expects to get there in February. Supplier problems, which it says are fixed. Bloomberg reports the Roush plant outside Detroit can build up to 20 a week starting in December, mostly by hand, because automating assembly doesn't pay at these volumes.
So a robot truck comes off a line of people with wrenches, and whether it gets a driver depends on whose badge is on the grille. The target for the end of 2027 is 1,000.
Aurora also said this week it will miss its goal of 200 driverless trucks and now expects to get there in February. Supplier problems, which it says are fixed. Bloomberg reports the Roush plant outside Detroit can build up to 20 a week starting in December, mostly by hand, because automating assembly doesn't pay at these volumes.
So a robot truck comes off a line of people with wrenches, and whether it gets a driver depends on whose badge is on the grille. The target for the end of 2027 is 1,000.
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Waymo is adding nearly 250 square miles across five cities over the next week. Torrance, La Jolla, the Nashville zoo, twice as much of east Orlando. The addition I keep looking at is a single pickup spot at Berryessa BART in San Jose.
Berryessa is the end of the line. VTA's 2023 ing downtown San Jose and Diridon around 2036, for about $12 billion. Waymo already serves Diridon and the San Jose airport, and now it meets the train where the train stops.
A decade of tunneling and a pin in an app now cover the same few miles. I'd love to see the ridership on that pin a year from now.
Berryessa is the end of the line. VTA's 2023 ing downtown San Jose and Diridon around 2036, for about $12 billion. Waymo already serves Diridon and the San Jose airport, and now it meets the train where the train stops.
A decade of tunneling and a pin in an app now cover the same few miles. I'd love to see the ridership on that pin a year from now.
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XPeng got approval Monday to run Level 4 robotaxi trials anywhere in Guangzhou. Invite codes only to start. No fleet size, no price, and no word on whether a safety officer rides along. Fully driverless is the 2027 goal.
The line I keep rereading is from XPeng's July release. It ide-hailing fleets itself. It wants to be the technology provider and let local partners run the service on the ground, earning from car sales and tech services plus a share of what the cars bring in.
So the carmaker builds the robotaxi and hands off the fleet. Somebody else buys those cars and carries them on their books. XPeng says it'll work with ride-hailing platforms starting in 2027.
Whose name ends up on the title is the question for 2027.
The line I keep rereading is from XPeng's July release. It ide-hailing fleets itself. It wants to be the technology provider and let local partners run the service on the ground, earning from car sales and tech services plus a share of what the cars bring in.
So the carmaker builds the robotaxi and hands off the fleet. Somebody else buys those cars and carries them on their books. XPeng says it'll work with ride-hailing platforms starting in 2027.
Whose name ends up on the title is the question for 2027.
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Dubai is closing three lanes of Emirates Road, plus the tunnel by Al Maktoum airport, from 9am to 4pm every day this week through Saturday. The reason given is self-driving taxi tests.
Same week, Bain put out its global car buyer survey, more than 12,000 buyers in 11 countries. r buying a car with Level 3 autonomy or better: 40% in the US, 47% in Europe, 84% in China. In the UAE it was 90%.
I don't know which way that runs. A government willing to clear motorway lanes for robotaxi tests, and buyers who already want the car to drive itself. Probably each feeds the other.
The US number is the one I'd watch as Waymo and Tesla open more cities.
Same week, Bain put out its global car buyer survey, more than 12,000 buyers in 11 countries. r buying a car with Level 3 autonomy or better: 40% in the US, 47% in Europe, 84% in China. In the UAE it was 90%.
I don't know which way that runs. A government willing to clear motorway lanes for robotaxi tests, and buyers who already want the car to drive itself. Probably each feeds the other.
The US number is the one I'd watch as Waymo and Tesla open more cities.
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France's transport minister stood next to Wayve, Stellantis and Nvidia in Paris on Friday and said France will adapt its rules to speed up driverless cars, with strict safety and data requirements kept in place.
The plan is early. Stellantis builds the cars and Wayve's software computer and sensors. The release doesn't name a city or a launch date.
The number I'd watch is 1,500. Under the EU's approval route for fully driverless cars, one vehicle type can be registered 1,500 times a year across the whole EU. That limit is set in Brussels, so Paris can't raise it on its own.
For scale, Tesla says its Cybercab line in Texas can already run at more than 125,000 a year.
A minister on stage helps. The ceiling is still 1,500.
The plan is early. Stellantis builds the cars and Wayve's software computer and sensors. The release doesn't name a city or a launch date.
The number I'd watch is 1,500. Under the EU's approval route for fully driverless cars, one vehicle type can be registered 1,500 times a year across the whole EU. That limit is set in Brussels, so Paris can't raise it on its own.
For scale, Tesla says its Cybercab line in Texas can already run at more than 125,000 a year.
A minister on stage helps. The ceiling is still 1,500.
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Jonas retweeted
🚨✍️
Calling on the Tesla Board & Special Committee to pursue a merger with SpaceX.
The shareholder letter is live. Read it and sign if you agree. Share it with friends & family.
Thank you to @Amy787 @Amy787fting this so well.
surveymonkey.com/r/mergealready
We want the combined company t bureaucracy.
Calling on the Tesla Board & Special Committee to pursue a merger with SpaceX.
The shareholder letter is live. Read it and sign if you agree. Share it with friends & family.
Thank you to @Amy787 @Amy787fting this so well.
surveymonkey.com/r/mergealready
We want the combined company t bureaucracy.
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inDrive built its business on letting riders and drivers haggle over the fare. It runs in more than 1,200 cities across 47 countries, and the pitch has always been a cheap ride.
This week it signed an MoU with Pony.ai and Nvidia to explore putting Pony's esting starts in Astana, Kazakhstan, in the first half of 2027, with a safety operator aboard. Astana gets months of snow and ice.
I'm curious how the haggle works with no driver on the other side. Somebody still decides what fare the car will take.
This week it signed an MoU with Pony.ai and Nvidia to explore putting Pony's esting starts in Astana, Kazakhstan, in the first half of 2027, with a safety operator aboard. Astana gets months of snow and ice.
I'm curious how the haggle works with no driver on the other side. Somebody still decides what fare the car will take.
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Jonas retweeted
This was such an awesome experience getting to see my piece from Lagrange Bend by @dotjiwa with live piano. Very special! If you love generative art, you show go mint one now for just 0.04 ETH! Jiwa is a great human and artist!
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Tonight’s drone show in Marfa was something else! Congrats to @AdamWeitsman on hosting, @lphaCentauriKid on his massive artistic creation, and the entire @artblocks_io community for our passion.
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