Anthropic is a 5-year-old company. Every single other company on that photo is 15+ years old. The ones with the most revenue (Salesforce, SAP, ServiceNow) are 27, 52 and 22 years old.
Anthropic generates more revenue than those multi-decades-old companies + no signs of slowdown
Anthropic generates more revenue than those multi-decades-old companies + no signs of slowdown
Could Anthropic be the first major AI bubble to burst?
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@GergelyOrosz Revenue != functioning and profitable business. They are losing 10s of billions while on the hook for 100s of billions in spend commits in the next few years. If you have to spend 2-3$ for every 1$ in revenue, sounds like shaky ground for such a massive evaluation.
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@johncodes Similar reasoning for why a leading finance magazine at the time, Barrons, said Amazon will collapse, its just a matter of time, when Amazon was 5 years old, in 1999
By all conventional logic it should have
Ask what they got wrong? What did most analysts miss?
By all conventional logic it should have
Ask what they got wrong? What did most analysts miss?
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@GergelyOroszllapse: the stock in the dotcom bubble crashed down to 6$ from 100$. Amazon only survived because Bezos somehow by a miracle found 600m$ in the bond market weeks before things froze up on 2000. Jassy then saved the company with AWS from 2000-2005 by turning it from a low-margin internet company to an actual hyperscaler that could "spin the flywheel".
Let's not do a revisionist history on Amazon: it is a miracle it survived after such a crash.
Let's not do a revisionist history on Amazon: it is a miracle it survived after such a crash.
Oct 18, 2026 · 2:45 PM UTC
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@GergelyOrosz the same playbook for Anthropic: they would a) have to go find 100s of billions of dollars to meet their spend commits and b) transition the company in the next few years away from unprofitable training into _something_ that can turn them into a true profit hyperscaler to meet such an evaluation.
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@johncodes The only thing I know is it's very hard to predict is a business on a brand new technology is a stupid or brilliant business!
You might be right; I am pointing out that what is logical (as eg Amazon was) could also turn out to be wrong
x.com/GergelyOrosz/s…
You might be right; I am pointing out that what is logical (as eg Amazon was) could also turn out to be wrong
x.com/GergelyOrosz/s…
To be clear, I don’t have a view if Ant + OAI will live up to valuations (and don’t have stock + won’t have stock in either of them), just pointing out how a good part of the market had been wrong about a new tech wave before.
And how it’s hard to predict what will happen when we’ve not seen the movie before!
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@johncodest@GergelyOroszut. People might ultimately buy directly from sellers, and agentic interface's can mediate finding the best prices from suppliers, aka Shopify's bet. This is a future Amazon is thrashing wildly against, lobbing lawsuits at agentic browser providers (Perplexity) and denying agents access to its site.
It knows the story isn't over.
It knows the story isn't over.
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