Jesse retweeted
not enough ppl know that in the early 1900s couples would regularly end their engagements if they found out a parent of their future spouse had a cancer which led to extreme secrecy around it as a cause of death
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Jesse retweeted
Sufficiently advanced shape rotation may be indistinguishable from wordcelism
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Jesse retweeted
In 2016 Geoffrey Hinton said “we should stop training radiologists now" since AI would soon be better at their jobs.
He was right: models have outperformed radiologists on benchmarks for ~a decade.
Yet radiology jobs are at record highs, with an average salary of $520k.
Why?
He was right: models have outperformed radiologists on benchmarks for ~a decade.
Yet radiology jobs are at record highs, with an average salary of $520k.
Why?
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Jesse retweeted
The World is so Crazy right now… Sometimes a Player has just got to sit back and say……. Wow……
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Jesse retweeted
The massive demand for stablecoins in emerging markets shows itself in exchange rates
ie USDT on Binance P2P is often sitting at very large premiums to spot USD markets. Would be very interested if there was more comprehensive studies tracking these
(image via @tiger_research_)
ie USDT on Binance P2P is often sitting at very large premiums to spot USD markets. Would be very interested if there was more comprehensive studies tracking these
(image via @tiger_research_)
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The massive demand for stablecoins in emerging markets shows itself in exchange rates
ie USDT on Binance P2P is often sitting at very large premiums to spot USD markets. Would be very interested if there was more comprehensive studies tracking these
(image via @tiger_research_)
ie USDT on Binance P2P is often sitting at very large premiums to spot USD markets. Would be very interested if there was more comprehensive studies tracking these
(image via @tiger_research_)
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a majority of current teen-college aged people had their first investing experience on robinhood and have not left
actually most are depositing and holding cash there
is it just a neat app if they are earning interest on $34B in deposits?
actually most are depositing and holding cash there
is it just a neat app if they are earning interest on $34B in deposits?
Tbh i dont get the Robinhood hype.
They built a neat app with good UX.
They’ve never built a real crypto product. They just allow you to buy crypto and most of that flow is routed to third parties. Their users havent made a difference to any listed tokens so far.
Why does everyone think they’re going to come in and dominate?
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Jesse retweeted
Which businesses benefit the most from cryptodollar growth in emerging markets?
Today it is Tether, Binance/Bybit/Bitget & Tron. This is almost entirely from local P2P networks and cash ramps.
Bootstrapping such a network is very hard. I do not expect this to change anytime soonfor @zkp2p). Until this is disrupted, the initial onramp step must come from P2P.
This means a goal for blockchain is to keep users onchain. For this, the focus turns to supporting:
- Stablecoin-linked cards
- Merchant accounts & support for stablecoins
- Local fiat-backed stables(?)
(In other words, a great place to start is to remove just one end of the ramp sandwich, pic updated from @bedlamresearch)
Today it is Tether, Binance/Bybit/Bitget & Tron. This is almost entirely from local P2P networks and cash ramps.
Bootstrapping such a network is very hard. I do not expect this to change anytime soonfor @zkp2p). Until this is disrupted, the initial onramp step must come from P2P.
This means a goal for blockchain is to keep users onchain. For this, the focus turns to supporting:
- Stablecoin-linked cards
- Merchant accounts & support for stablecoins
- Local fiat-backed stables(?)
(In other words, a great place to start is to remove just one end of the ramp sandwich, pic updated from @bedlamresearch)
in singapore last year i gave a talk called "cryptodollarization". the idea is dollarization via stablecoins. now with the GENIUS act about to pass and bessent's comments about stables reaching $3.7T (!!) (13% of M3), i believe stablecoins are being unleashed as an economic rest of the world and help reset the US fiscal position.
cryptodollarization has happened already, arguably in venezuela, argentina (partial), and nigeria (partial). i believe it's much more aggressive than conventional dollarization, which is often limited by availability of physical banknotes.
I believe that in a decade there will be many fewer sovereign currencies and most weak nations will be dollarized – not through USG intervention but by a spontaneous "bottom up" process (this happened in Ecuador in 99/20 as described by larry white). in effect consumers engage in currency substitution and force the government's hand.
stablecoins eliminate the power of borders in currency choice and allow network effects to actually take hold. this is why we see the dollar representing >99% of stablecoins but only 40-60% of international reserves and financial flows. stablecoins make currency substitution must faster and more aggressive, and they are also ~impossible to stop. in almost all cases where nation states have attempted to prohibit flows out of local FX into USD stablecoins, they have eventually relented.
in my talk I built a simple model to try and guess where these spontaneous crypto-dollarizations might occur (see the last couple slides).
i wanted to revisit this talk because these predictions have become much closer to reality in the last 12 months. the government is saying the quiet part out loud: stablecoins are an economic weapon to passively dollarize the entire planet.
slides: niccarter.info/wp-content/upl…
video: youtube.com/watch?v=v9S6Tj…
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Which businesses benefit the most from cryptodollar growth in emerging markets?
Today it is Tether, Binance/Bybit/Bitget & Tron. This is almost entirely from local P2P networks and cash ramps.
Bootstrapping such a network is very hard. I do not expect this to change anytime soonfor @zkp2p). Until this is disrupted, the initial onramp step must come from P2P.
This means a goal for blockchain is to keep users onchain. For this, the focus turns to supporting:
- Stablecoin-linked cards
- Merchant accounts & support for stablecoins
- Local fiat-backed stables(?)
(In other words, a great place to start is to remove just one end of the ramp sandwich, pic updated from @bedlamresearch)
Today it is Tether, Binance/Bybit/Bitget & Tron. This is almost entirely from local P2P networks and cash ramps.
Bootstrapping such a network is very hard. I do not expect this to change anytime soonfor @zkp2p). Until this is disrupted, the initial onramp step must come from P2P.
This means a goal for blockchain is to keep users onchain. For this, the focus turns to supporting:
- Stablecoin-linked cards
- Merchant accounts & support for stablecoins
- Local fiat-backed stables(?)
(In other words, a great place to start is to remove just one end of the ramp sandwich, pic updated from @bedlamresearch)
in singapore last year i gave a talk called "cryptodollarization". the idea is dollarization via stablecoins. now with the GENIUS act about to pass and bessent's comments about stables reaching $3.7T (!!) (13% of M3), i believe stablecoins are being unleashed as an economic rest of the world and help reset the US fiscal position.
cryptodollarization has happened already, arguably in venezuela, argentina (partial), and nigeria (partial). i believe it's much more aggressive than conventional dollarization, which is often limited by availability of physical banknotes.
I believe that in a decade there will be many fewer sovereign currencies and most weak nations will be dollarized – not through USG intervention but by a spontaneous "bottom up" process (this happened in Ecuador in 99/20 as described by larry white). in effect consumers engage in currency substitution and force the government's hand.
stablecoins eliminate the power of borders in currency choice and allow network effects to actually take hold. this is why we see the dollar representing >99% of stablecoins but only 40-60% of international reserves and financial flows. stablecoins make currency substitution must faster and more aggressive, and they are also ~impossible to stop. in almost all cases where nation states have attempted to prohibit flows out of local FX into USD stablecoins, they have eventually relented.
in my talk I built a simple model to try and guess where these spontaneous crypto-dollarizations might occur (see the last couple slides).
i wanted to revisit this talk because these predictions have become much closer to reality in the last 12 months. the government is saying the quiet part out loud: stablecoins are an economic weapon to passively dollarize the entire planet.
slides: niccarter.info/wp-content/upl…
video: youtube.com/watch?v=v9S6Tj…
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People massively overlook China as a success story in payments
In Q4 2024, WeChat Pay and AliPay did ~$20 TRILLION in payments volume
To put in context, Visa & Mastercard did ~$25 trillion all year
In Q4 2024, WeChat Pay and AliPay did ~$20 TRILLION in payments volume
To put in context, Visa & Mastercard did ~$25 trillion all year
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In the @bedlamresearch stablecoin post there was a removed section covering prefunding with stablecoins (e.g. see image)
The concept is the same for e.g card receivables as well. Moving these loans in stablecoins brings a massive market of asset backed securities onchain
The concept is the same for e.g card receivables as well. Moving these loans in stablecoins brings a massive market of asset backed securities onchain
When payments people tell you we have 'instant' cross-border, they're lying.
What we have: $25M pre-funded in foreign banks so transfers LOOK instant.
Stablecoins will eliminate pre-funding entirely.
Here's the phase transition most are missing 🧵
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This arbitrage (funds of different mandates getting exposure to BTC) is different but related to how crypto benefits from regulatory arbitrage.
Laws governing different pools of capital leave large gaps that can be profitable for people ready to expose them. It can be sustainable to build businesses that exist to exploit these gaps
Laws governing different pools of capital leave large gaps that can be profitable for people ready to expose them. It can be sustainable to build businesses that exist to exploit these gaps
Bitcoin Treasury Companies are geographic/capital market arbitrage wrapped inside financial engineering wrapped inside a meme all wrapped around a high vol fixed supply digital asset undergoing speculative monetization amid a generational debt cycle and geoeconomic reordering.
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