18-24 year olds in North Carolina (per CNN exit polls)
2024 President: 🟥 R+2
2026 Senator: 🟦 D+67
2024 President: 🟥 R+2
2026 Senator: 🟦 D+67
14
90
730
142,422
NYT's data has 18-29 year olds in NC shifting D+49, but seeing that younger age group broken down further adds a a lot of clarity. A 70pt shift over two years doesn't happen often for any demographic.
CNN's gen-z sample in NC is quite substantial too (n=942)
CNN's gen-z sample in NC is quite substantial too (n=942)
1
4
54
5,617
🟥 Arthaud
🟪 Mélenchon
🟩 Ruffin / Tondelier
🟨 Glucksmann
🟧 Attal / Philippe
🟦 Lisnard / Retailleau
🟫 Le Pen
⬛️ Zemmour
Eight candidates is plenty. Decide bloc representation where still contested, then everyone else... 💨🚪
🟪 Mélenchon
🟩 Ruffin / Tondelier
🟨 Glucksmann
🟧 Attal / Philippe
🟦 Lisnard / Retailleau
🟫 Le Pen
⬛️ Zemmour
Eight candidates is plenty. Decide bloc representation where still contested, then everyone else... 💨🚪
0
0
3
417
Just noticed that the PSL-backed Peace and Freedom write-in-turned-candidate is at nearly 43% in AD63 with ~67% of votes counted. Ok, I guess, fuck it why not.
0
1
4
478
Add in a 20% bloc-voting minority then replace the Freie Wähler peasantry with evangelical exurbanites... et voilà
I honestly think the best comparison to the voter distribution in North Carolina is not Georgia, but Wisconsin.
Both states have two key centers of Democratic votes: a big, diverse city that's the economic hub of the state (Milwaukee/Charlotte), and a medium-large state capital that is also a college town and gives Democrats dictator-like margins (Madison/Raleigh).
3
3
49
3,508
And if we really want to flip and keep Gaston blue: build light rail on the more-or-less unused Piedmont & Northern Railway (east to Mt Holly) and HG-Line (south to Crowders)
It could be done cheap, if kept largely single-tracked
It could be done cheap, if kept largely single-tracked
0
0
13
508
On Tuesday, Charlotte voters approved referendums on transportation bonds (63.7% ✔︎ - 36.3% ✘) and housing bonds (61.9% ✔︎ - 38.1% ✘) with notably different coalitions
Transportation bonds over-performed in 🟦
Housing bonds over-performed in 🟩
*absentees not included
Transportation bonds over-performed in 🟦
Housing bonds over-performed in 🟩
*absentees not included
3
1
23
1,187
Demographics using 2024 ACS estimates
🟦 area
White: 53.8%
Black: 23.4%
Hispanic: 14.1%
Asian: 8.2%
—————
College grad: 57.8%
>$200k income: 18.8%
🟩 area
Black: 52.7%
Hispanic: 21.8%
White: 18.7%
Asian: 7.0%
—————
College grad: 32.0%
>$200k income: 3.9%
🟦 area
White: 53.8%
Black: 23.4%
Hispanic: 14.1%
Asian: 8.2%
—————
College grad: 57.8%
>$200k income: 18.8%
🟩 area
Black: 52.7%
Hispanic: 21.8%
White: 18.7%
Asian: 7.0%
—————
College grad: 32.0%
>$200k income: 3.9%
1
0
3
225
For the record, my voting pattern on this year's municipal referenda:
Transportation bonds ✘
Affordable housing bonds ✔︎
Neighborhood improvement bonds ✔︎
Transportation bonds ✘
Affordable housing bonds ✔︎
Neighborhood improvement bonds ✔︎
1
0
2
154
It's frustrating that the 'extreme scenario' of dam failure across NC/TX/FL/SC/TN gerrymanders was so narrowly missed
A further ~2-4pt shift left and Republicans would've lost plenty (potentially dozens) of additional seats in these states alone
A further ~2-4pt shift left and Republicans would've lost plenty (potentially dozens) of additional seats in these states alone
Obv slim chances here, but imho there is still a real, underestimated possibility that both...
- Dems win big on persuasion
- GOP E-day turnout evaporates
...and the dam breaks across gerrymanders in TX/FL/NC
NC is most likely, but SC/TN are also possible in extreme scenarios
0
1
5
364
