Pinned Tweet
Announcing the book "𝑀𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑠𝑡-𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑝"!🦉
The book is a structured deep-dive: we start with the mental models of ASTs, move to rule composition, and end with advanced usage.
It’s the place where design principles and philosophy are explained.
Link below ↓
The book is a structured deep-dive: we start with the mental models of ASTs, move to rule composition, and end with advanced usage.
It’s the place where design principles and philosophy are explained.
Link below ↓
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Herrington Darkholme retweeted
1/Anthropic’s S-1 is out.
2/ Revenue, quarter by quarter ($M)
Q1'25: 376
Q2'25: 787
Q3'25: 1,382
Q4'25: 2,040
Q1'26: 4,731
Q2'26: 11,555
Q2'26 revenue was up 1,368% YoY. Compute & infra costs were up 300% over the same period.
Q2'26 was the first quarter with positive GAAP operating income: $974M.
3/ How “Run-Rate Revenue” is defined
Trailing-28-day consumption fees × 13
+ monthly subscription fees × 12
Three caveats from the S-1:
-It includes customers later found to be violating the usage policy
-It is seasonal: usage dips in summer and winter holidays
4/ Revenue is recognized gross
When Claude is sold through the AWS, GCP or Azure marketplaces, Anthropic is the principal. It books the full amount as revenue, and the cloud provider’s fee goes into Sales, marketing & partnerships.
The marketplace share of revenue has climbed fast:
11% (2023) → 32% (2024) → 47% (2025) → 48% (H1'26)
Adjust for this before comparing multiples with companies that report net.
5/ Distillation
The S-1 puts a number on it:
“we estimate that revenue from such customers represented approximately 5% to 7% of our revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2026”
These are customers violating the usage policy or commercial terms. Applied to ~$33B of 9M revenue, that’s roughly $1.7–2.3B.
Enforcement was stepped up in Aug–Sep, and the company expects the share to decline. The S-1 says the estimate “requires judgment and may change.”
6/ Visibility is low
RPO at 6/30/26: $10.8B
~75% of that is recognized in the next 12 months, so cRPO ≈ $8.1B
Deferred revenue: $1.65B
Q2 annualized revenue is ~$46B, so cRPO covers less than 20% of it.
80% of revenue is consumption-based, and next year’s revenue depends almost entirely on usage.
7/ The compute bill
Disclosed commitments:
Broadcom TPU leases: ~$161B
SpaceXAI (NVIDIA GPUs): up to $121B, ~$3.1B a month from Dec’26
Google: ≥$115B, plus $125–150B more of TPU capacity in 2028–31
Amazon: ≥$110B
Microsoft: ≥$45B
Nscale: ~$45B
Lambda: ~$41B
AMD: >$20B
That adds up to roughly $780–810B.
8/ The mismatch to watch
Revenue is variable and consumption-driven. Compute costs are fixed, multi-year and take-or-pay.
On top of that, the Broadcom leases, the credit agreement and the convertible notes include cross-default provisions.
This is the single most important risk in the filing.
9/ Demand is real
NRR ~900% (ex-Pro/Max)
Customers paying more than $100K / $1M / $10M a year: 11,900+ / 1,900+ / ~250
No single customer was >10% of 9M’26 revenue
Top 5 customers ≈ 25% of 9M revenue
Q3: 79% of revenue came from outside the top 5, up from 64% in Q1
Claude Enterprise users who also use Claude Code spend ~20x more than those who don’t
10/ Dilution
$77B of convertible capacity: Google $20B, Amazon $15B, Broadcom $42B, settled in shares at a trailing VWAP
Google can buy up to $10B more stock at the IPO price
A Public Benefit Fund already holds 5% of fully diluted shares, and can get up to +2% more for every 50% rise in the share price
2/ Revenue, quarter by quarter ($M)
Q1'25: 376
Q2'25: 787
Q3'25: 1,382
Q4'25: 2,040
Q1'26: 4,731
Q2'26: 11,555
Q2'26 revenue was up 1,368% YoY. Compute & infra costs were up 300% over the same period.
Q2'26 was the first quarter with positive GAAP operating income: $974M.
3/ How “Run-Rate Revenue” is defined
Trailing-28-day consumption fees × 13
+ monthly subscription fees × 12
Three caveats from the S-1:
-It includes customers later found to be violating the usage policy
-It is seasonal: usage dips in summer and winter holidays
4/ Revenue is recognized gross
When Claude is sold through the AWS, GCP or Azure marketplaces, Anthropic is the principal. It books the full amount as revenue, and the cloud provider’s fee goes into Sales, marketing & partnerships.
The marketplace share of revenue has climbed fast:
11% (2023) → 32% (2024) → 47% (2025) → 48% (H1'26)
Adjust for this before comparing multiples with companies that report net.
5/ Distillation
The S-1 puts a number on it:
“we estimate that revenue from such customers represented approximately 5% to 7% of our revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2026”
These are customers violating the usage policy or commercial terms. Applied to ~$33B of 9M revenue, that’s roughly $1.7–2.3B.
Enforcement was stepped up in Aug–Sep, and the company expects the share to decline. The S-1 says the estimate “requires judgment and may change.”
6/ Visibility is low
RPO at 6/30/26: $10.8B
~75% of that is recognized in the next 12 months, so cRPO ≈ $8.1B
Deferred revenue: $1.65B
Q2 annualized revenue is ~$46B, so cRPO covers less than 20% of it.
80% of revenue is consumption-based, and next year’s revenue depends almost entirely on usage.
7/ The compute bill
Disclosed commitments:
Broadcom TPU leases: ~$161B
SpaceXAI (NVIDIA GPUs): up to $121B, ~$3.1B a month from Dec’26
Google: ≥$115B, plus $125–150B more of TPU capacity in 2028–31
Amazon: ≥$110B
Microsoft: ≥$45B
Nscale: ~$45B
Lambda: ~$41B
AMD: >$20B
That adds up to roughly $780–810B.
8/ The mismatch to watch
Revenue is variable and consumption-driven. Compute costs are fixed, multi-year and take-or-pay.
On top of that, the Broadcom leases, the credit agreement and the convertible notes include cross-default provisions.
This is the single most important risk in the filing.
9/ Demand is real
NRR ~900% (ex-Pro/Max)
Customers paying more than $100K / $1M / $10M a year: 11,900+ / 1,900+ / ~250
No single customer was >10% of 9M’26 revenue
Top 5 customers ≈ 25% of 9M revenue
Q3: 79% of revenue came from outside the top 5, up from 64% in Q1
Claude Enterprise users who also use Claude Code spend ~20x more than those who don’t
10/ Dilution
$77B of convertible capacity: Google $20B, Amazon $15B, Broadcom $42B, settled in shares at a trailing VWAP
Google can buy up to $10B more stock at the IPO price
A Public Benefit Fund already holds 5% of fully diluted shares, and can get up to +2% more for every 50% rise in the share price
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solana:4Wdn6GGJLdyeMLLfzu3pPQMmf9Kivd8e9xmbLb2bpump
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
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LLVM backed Rust only beats JS when run with `--no-offlift`. Why Rust loses? The benchmark has long loops and V8 does OSR only in JS, not WASM
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Herrington Darkholme retweeted
My iPhone Duo video went viral, so I'm giving away 100 iPhones on X 😛
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faster rust compiler is coming??
ra-jit (incremental, faster compilation in rust) now compiles most large rust projects.
github.com/indexable-inc/…
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