alright so I tried to figure out why things are blowing up
simple summary: it's geopolitics. and if the Middle East gets bad enough, then the backers for OpenAI's $1.4T funding round could pull out so that's sending shockwaves through markets bc they're the big data center tenant ppl are worried about. the incremental appears to be that Ukraine is also getting unhinged
there's not an AI specific catalyst this seems more like geopolitics. Last night TSM guided acceleration and Citi pressed if there was demand destruction on memory - TSM said no, that's already factored into the guide which means there's not some specific Korea fundamental thing -- and price action there is likely more of a margin call
Ukraine bonds have dumped 20% since July. He just asked for $70b Euros from the EU while Trump denied shutting off Starlink (Elon had said it wasn't him, so it just looks like a sht show). Trump told Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries. Zelensky has since crashed out and said "The block is out, we're done". And is now vowing to hit Russian refineries. And it appears he's already followed through hitting a facility in Surgut with drones
Indonesia got delisted from the MSCI and the entire country equity index is -14% in a day, increasing the likelihood of EM contagion
Iran has moved their nuclear facilities under ground in PickAxe mountain and trump has talked about using the "MOAB" which stands for Massive Ordnance Air Blast - which is just shy of a nuclear blast. THis is a 21,600 pound bomb that isn't even particularly effective at hitting underground sites so might just be generically destructive. For some reason Trump thinks that doing this after mid terms is fine - but oil is already pumping
reports from Israel meanwhile: Israel now deploying mobile bomb shelters in major cities, with 2 reportedly spotted in Ashdod and Tel Aviv within 24hs, as IDF raises its alert level to highest across all fronts amid preparations for a possible strike on Iran
fun times
simple summary: it's geopolitics. and if the Middle East gets bad enough, then the backers for OpenAI's $1.4T funding round could pull out so that's sending shockwaves through markets bc they're the big data center tenant ppl are worried about. the incremental appears to be that Ukraine is also getting unhinged
there's not an AI specific catalyst this seems more like geopolitics. Last night TSM guided acceleration and Citi pressed if there was demand destruction on memory - TSM said no, that's already factored into the guide which means there's not some specific Korea fundamental thing -- and price action there is likely more of a margin call
Ukraine bonds have dumped 20% since July. He just asked for $70b Euros from the EU while Trump denied shutting off Starlink (Elon had said it wasn't him, so it just looks like a sht show). Trump told Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries. Zelensky has since crashed out and said "The block is out, we're done". And is now vowing to hit Russian refineries. And it appears he's already followed through hitting a facility in Surgut with drones
Indonesia got delisted from the MSCI and the entire country equity index is -14% in a day, increasing the likelihood of EM contagion
Iran has moved their nuclear facilities under ground in PickAxe mountain and trump has talked about using the "MOAB" which stands for Massive Ordnance Air Blast - which is just shy of a nuclear blast. THis is a 21,600 pound bomb that isn't even particularly effective at hitting underground sites so might just be generically destructive. For some reason Trump thinks that doing this after mid terms is fine - but oil is already pumping
reports from Israel meanwhile: Israel now deploying mobile bomb shelters in major cities, with 2 reportedly spotted in Ashdod and Tel Aviv within 24hs, as IDF raises its alert level to highest across all fronts amid preparations for a possible strike on Iran
fun times
97
83
1,720
162,926
Heard of a top law firm completely cutting off Harvey and all API calls to Claude/OpenAI after they saw what openAI did with navier strokes
Now hosting everything locally with GPUs they own, running Kimi and deepseek
Think you’ll see a lot more of this going forward
Now hosting everything locally with GPUs they own, running Kimi and deepseek
Think you’ll see a lot more of this going forward
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3,291
411,042
When I was in Nashville to see Thiel’s antichrist lecture there was a woman in the Marriott lobby saying she viewed SOXL as her checking account and she was budgeting for 5-6x a year
Just read that sentence again then short everything
Just read that sentence again then short everything
34
12
580
40,364
I tried to warn you
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building Francisco to achieve record power density.
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23
728
59,842
I hate to say it but this interview was insanely bearish for me. He talks about
1] Multi year timeline for health advances
2] All in on Chip and Hardware R&D with launches Soon (TM)
3] he mentioned Codex ONCE in the entire interview (dude)
4] hope to replace software 'not true'
1] Multi year timeline for health advances
2] All in on Chip and Hardware R&D with launches Soon (TM)
3] he mentioned Codex ONCE in the entire interview (dude)
4] hope to replace software 'not true'
23
10
368
30,210
and then re: RSI he says if it comes then we need to slam national security breaks lol - so even bull case is a bear case
2
1
82
6,199
NYT goodalexander pilled?
U.S. AND ISRAEL REPORTEDLY PLAN NEW IRAN STRIKES AFTER MIDTERMS
The U.S. and Israel have reportedly developed plans for renewed attacks on Iran after the November 3 elections, according to the New York Times.
Potential targets include energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile assets.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly discussed the plans with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
15
1
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18,772
Hung out with @thiccyth0t who pivoted out of coins into Pokemon. Core takes:
1. There’s no way the consumer is slowing down if top Pokémon pack sellers are doing $3m a day
2. At the same time weebifcation/ low labor rate participation / declining birth rate are all 1 way trains
1. There’s no way the consumer is slowing down if top Pokémon pack sellers are doing $3m a day
2. At the same time weebifcation/ low labor rate participation / declining birth rate are all 1 way trains
47
13
565
66,158
covered $CBRS at $123.6. down 40% in a month. think everyone understands the bear case now and I don't think there's an AI contagion so there are more appealing shorts
Is kalshi manipulating this stock lower
18
0
197
20,078
Goldman upgrade $CRWV to buy as they realize per unit economics good/ progressing positively vs trailing. some strangely familiar points in the upgrade note, interesting -- interesting
23
15
389
72,860
one thing you learn as you get older
the people who encourage you to take big risks don't actually want the best for you. they just want to see what happens
the people who encourage you to take big risks don't actually want the best for you. they just want to see what happens
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76,176
The year is 2045. AGI never came. BTC is at $500k. Eth is at $10k. You held everything. It’s a middling outcome and now you live in Thailand pretending you didn’t waste your entire adult life chasing a libertarian fantasy
You speak to your wife with real time translation enabled
You speak to your wife with real time translation enabled
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73,250
Walmart at 36x earnings and single digit growth or SK Hynix at 3.6x earnings and triple digit growth?
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63,512