Pinned Tweet
New pinned tweet, as the links broke for the old one:
"Petroleum and Progress in #Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War." cambridge.org/us/academic/su…
"The Struggle for #Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951-1954." uncpress.org/book/978146967…
"Petroleum and Progress in #Iran: Oil, Development, and the Cold War." cambridge.org/us/academic/su…
"The Struggle for #Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951-1954." uncpress.org/book/978146967…
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It's really something that the US got a 10% in the price of oil the day before the midterms seemingly by accident.
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“Every negative for the GOP this cycle is a downstream effect of Iran." semafor.com/article/11/02/…
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Unfortunately, we have a pretty good idea of how the regime will respond to civil unrest, and it doesn't include making concessions on the nuclear program.
🚨CIA Director John Ratcliffe is advising Trump to maintain the "no war, no deal" status quo and allow the economic pressure campaign to continue, sources said
🚨Ratcliffe told Trump that prolonged economic pain will induce Iran to make more concessions — or create enough instability inside the country that citizens revolt
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"Iran’s demands, which include the Trump administration’s lifting sanctions on Iran and releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, have appeared difficult for Washington to accept...Mr. Trump’s current stance remains ambiguous." nytimes.com/2026/11/02/wor…
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Strikes on Qeshm island reported by IRNA.
Likely US strikes on Iranian coastal targets in response to latest round of Iranian attacks on shipping.
Not the much-anticipated US escalation. Though notable after weeks of the US holding off a striking Iranian coastal targets.
Likely US strikes on Iranian coastal targets in response to latest round of Iranian attacks on shipping.
Not the much-anticipated US escalation. Though notable after weeks of the US holding off a striking Iranian coastal targets.
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Oil crashed today on the hope of a deal.
The truth is a bit less encouraging--Trump isn't in a rush to escalate, he wants to see if talks produce something.
But a delay and an off-ramp are two different things. axios.com/2026/11/02/tru…
The truth is a bit less encouraging--Trump isn't in a rush to escalate, he wants to see if talks produce something.
But a delay and an off-ramp are two different things. axios.com/2026/11/02/tru…
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Brent down $10, which Trump credits to the possibility there will be a deal.
Meanwhile, no shift in the Iranian position.
Meanwhile, no shift in the Iranian position.
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Vance:
"We've had a number of conversations with the Iranians...the president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement. We're going to keep on working at it."
"We've had a number of conversations with the Iranians...the president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement. We're going to keep on working at it."
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Fwiw a similar message was sent from Saudi to Iran ahead of the June 2025 war.
על רקע ההיערכות לסבב נוסף באיראן: גורם סעודי אמר לכאן חדשות כי ריאד לא תרצה לקחת שום חלק במלחמה. בתמורה - בסעודיה יצפו ל"חסינות" מהתקיפות האיראניות בשטחם | @kaisos1987 עם הפרטים
#מהדורתכאןחדשות עם @TaliMoreno_
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The Middle East is on the verge of war and mediators/diplomats are converging on Beijing.
♦️ استاد مطالعات خاورمیانه از چین:
🔹 امروز یک چهره مهم دیگر نیز در پکن حضور دارد؛ وزیر مشاور عربستان سعودی، عضو هیئت وزیران و مشاور امنیت ملی این کشور
🔹 مساعد بن محمد العیبان کسی بود که در ۱۰ مارس ۲۰۲۳، بیانیه مشترک سه‌جانبه چین، عربستان و ایران را از طرف ریاض امضا کرد / انتخاب
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"News that Supreme Leader has authorized a deal"
That headline was inaccurate--it was paraphrasing some comments from President Pezeshkian, who indicated that Iran can make a deal as long as the US agrees to its conditions, i.e. what Iran has been saying for weeks.
That headline was inaccurate--it was paraphrasing some comments from President Pezeshkian, who indicated that Iran can make a deal as long as the US agrees to its conditions, i.e. what Iran has been saying for weeks.
Oil is extending the selloff.
Brent is now just below $105/bbl, while WTI has slipped below $97 as Washington and Tehran both signal more room for diplomacy.
The latest move follows Iran’s announcement that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has given the government authority to ding to reports that President Trump wants to give talks more time before considering renewed strikes.
The drop is spreading across energy markets too -- European gas, diesel and gasoline are all lower.
The key point: a lot of geopolitical risk premium had built into oil even as Gulf crude flows recovered, so softer diplomatic signals are now producing an outsized price reaction.
But without a formal deal, fully reopened Hormuz and an end to vessel attacks, some risk premium is likely to remain. #OOTT
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A 7% drop in the January Brent contract on the back of...what, exactly?
There is a great deal of noise, but thus far no signs that Iran has dropped any of its demands re: a return to the June MOU.
Always a possibility that Trump retreats and takes that deal, but hard to see him doing so now.
Despite the drop in Brent, expectation across the region is that escalation is coming after tomorrow (and could be imminent).
There is a great deal of noise, but thus far no signs that Iran has dropped any of its demands re: a return to the June MOU.
Always a possibility that Trump retreats and takes that deal, but hard to see him doing so now.
Despite the drop in Brent, expectation across the region is that escalation is coming after tomorrow (and could be imminent).
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This headline, which went out over Bloomberg, may have been the reason Brent fell sharply.
But it's a nothingburger--a paraphrase of some comments from Pezeshkian that amounted to saying negotiators had authority to reach a deal, without any mention of new concessions.
But it's a nothingburger--a paraphrase of some comments from Pezeshkian that amounted to saying negotiators had authority to reach a deal, without any mention of new concessions.
IRAN SUPREME LEADER HAS GRANTED GOVT AUTHORITY FOR TALKS: IRNA
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Don't let the futures roll trick you! Brent is down, but only $2-3 as we move from the December to the January contract. Currently at $108.
Imo, it's likely to rise on the day as the market sobers up re: likelihood of a US-Iran deal.
Imo, it's likely to rise on the day as the market sobers up re: likelihood of a US-Iran deal.
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Anakin is *seduced* by the Dark Side.
He's tricked. He's used. He loses everything as a result.
He's tricked. He's used. He loses everything as a result.
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Ian McKellan. He held the door open for me and said "Cheerio!" as I walked out. Incredible moment.
Who’s the most famous person you’ve ever spoken to?
Not “seen from far away” — actually talked to, even for a minute.
A quick hello, a handshake, a normal conversation… and you still remember it.
Who was it?
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Throughout the entirety of Trump's first term, the US was at war in Afghanistan. Not only did he not win it, but his administration negotiated the deal that made the events of 2021 essentially unavoidable. This is a curious boast to make.
Trump: I would’ve won The Vietnam War in a week. I would’ve won the war in Afghanistan.
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