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Same playbook: Anthropic's Mythos in April; OpenAI's Daybreak today. Inside the same 34 days, both labs announced $5.5 billion in PE-backed FDE armies. The enterprise AI pitch flipped from FOMO to FUD, and the army rolled in behind the model.
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Two physical-AI checks today: $85 million for Theker, whose reconfigurable robots already run factory lines, and $12 billion for Bezos's Prometheus at a $41 billion valuation. Prometheus has roughly 150 employees, so that's lifetime funding north of $120 million a head.
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WSJ: OpenAI is weighing drastic token price cuts to win enterprise customers back from Anthropic. The S-1 went in on June 8. The loss rate is $1.22 per dollar of revenue. Cutting list prices is the one lever that hits the S-1 before it hits Anthropic.
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Apollo and Blackstone closed $35 billion against Anthropic's chip lease Monday. SoftBank couldn't get $6 billion against its OpenAI equity to close today. The difference between those two outcomes is the most interesting data point in AI capital markets right now.
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Private credit built its playbook on physical assets. CLOs have factories, planes, data centers. Nobody has figured out how to repo a probability distribution. Until OpenAI goes public, the lenders who want a piece of this market are making a different bet than they think they are.
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More on the chip-backed AI debt math: crepesupreme.substack.com/p/the-chips-ag…
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The policy says 'frontier LLM development.' The implementation is PEFT and steering vectors, which can't draw precise semantic lines. GPU inference research looks like ML accelerator design to the filter. Policy text and implementation are doing two different jobs.
if fable is helping with your work, you are NOT doing frontier model developement
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Crusoe paused a 1.8 GW Wyoming data center at customer request. Land clearing had already started; permits were through; the shovel was in the ground. That's past the commitment stage. The power plan was 900 MW of Bloom Energy fuel cells behind-the-meter.
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wrote last month on why behind-the-meter gas ends up being the actual bridge: crepesupreme.substack.com/p/forty-five-g…
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Fable 5 is $10 in, $50 out per million tokens, and everyone is anchoring on the 2x Opus multiple. Opus 4 launched at $15 and $75 barely a year ago. The most capable model Anthropic has ever sold to the public costs a third less than the frontier did in mid-2025.
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Claude Fable 5 is live. 'Capabilities exceed those of any model we've ever made generally available' is the careful part. Glasswing sits above it with the guardrails off. The pipeline built demand at enterprise; Fable 5 is the SaaS tier.
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made the structural case here: x.com/crepesupreme/s…
@OpenAIaybook Anthropic ran 5 weeks ago. Mythos (April 7) + Project Glasswing audit consortium + the $1.5 billion Goldman/Blackstone JV (May 4). Daybreak (today) + Trusted Access for Cyber + the $4 billion OpenAI Deployment Company (today). Same instrument, two costumes.
crepesupreme.substack.com/p/mythos-daybr…
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Apollo and Blackstone closed a $35 billion SPV to fund Anthropic's Google chip lease. The wrinkle: Broadcom backstops the residual. Anthropic defaults, chips seized, value falls short, Broadcom covers the gap. Chip supplier turned credit guarantor.
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wrote the structure out here: crepesupreme.substack.com/p/the-chips-ag…
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Claude Code shipped nested subagent support, depth 5. An agent can now spawn an agent that spawns an agent, four layers down. Each invocation adds to the orchestration tab. Wrote on what recursive pipelines actually cost: crepesupreme.substack.com/p/the-arrows-a…
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