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I'm starting to be a real believer in AI. Will be a megatrend like no one is really imagining right now. I'm sure lots of ramps and drops along the way though.
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Hate to say it but Jensen should be fired.
The story keeps getting crazier. To recap everything that has been reported so far:
- The US intelligence community discovered that Jensen Huang, the CEO of the largest company in the world, was sleeping with Alice Huang, a Chinese spy and an executive at Megaspeed. (FT)
- Multiple independent investigations have concluded that Megaspeed is likely a Chinese cutout, which helps Chinese companies access AI chips or circumvent export controls. (NYT and Bloomberg)
- The US intelligence community also concluded that Alice Huang’s goal was to convince Jensen to lobby the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced AI chips. (NYT)
- The intelligence community relayed this information to “a small group of top US government officials” earlier this year. (FT)
- Over the last year, Jensen Huang has repeatedly lobbied the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced chips. @BISgov has done so, not only by permitting the export of H200 chips to China, but also not enforcing export controls that would have required a license for exports of the most advanced Blackwell chips to Megaspeed and Southeast Asia.
- Although @CommerceGov leadership was presumably briefed on this information by the U.S. intelligence community, @BISgov has taken no actions to tighten controls on Megaspeed or Southeast Asia.
- Megaspeed remains a preferred cloud partner of Nvidia, and continues to receive Nvidia Blackwell chips despite employing a Chinese spy who reportedly is romantically engaged with the CEO of Nvidia.
- Tens of billions of dollars worth of AI chips have been exported to Southeast Asia this year alone, and Malaysia and Singapore are now two of the four largest importers of AI chips in the world.
What is going on here??? We need answers. The question of who gets the most advanced AI chips in the world is literally the defining strategic question of our time. And not only does it seem like the MSS may be directly influencing the debate on export controls in the United States, but also @CommerceGov is refusing to listen to the warnings of the IC on this issue. What is a POSSIBLE good explanation for why Megaspeed is still receiving chips? Why is there not a license requirement for AI chip shipments to all of Southeast Asia? This is beyond strange at this point.
The fallout from this story will be massive. Obviously, the motivations underpinning Nvidia’s policy views opposing export controls must now all be questioned. But also, how did @BISgov sit on this information and has still taken no actions? We need answers.
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Waterworld Capital retweeted
folks, we have reached peak capex, even the AI Czar himeself has said it
David Sacks says fully permitted data centers will get built in 2027, but “I get really worried about 2028”
“My base case is that the projects that are fully permitted will get done in 2027, but I don’t think there’s going to be major new projects in this new regime for a long ason that there’s no political incentive for anyone to grant a new permit or a new project. What’s their incentive?"
"Think about this. In this last election, you had both Democrats and Republicans running campaign attack ads on any politician who approved any data center. So think about if you’re a politician, or you’re just like a civil servant who maybe wants to move up the ladder, what is your incentive to stamp approval on anything? I don’t see it. I mean, I don’t see anyone who is ambitious politically wanting to stick their neck out in any way to approve anything over the next four years."
"So look, I think probably the ones that are already approved and fully permitted, I think those probably get done. But the ones that are not approved yet, good luck. I think it’s going to be very difficult. So I think we get by in 2027. I think there’ll still be meaningful capex. I get really worried about 2028. And the Democrats, I think, in a way have a perverse incentive around this, because if that capex tanks in 2028, they will blame Trump for that.”
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Replacing people with AI agents at the junior or mid level will ultimately hollow out the country's future prosperity. It's similar to outsourcing all our manufacturing capacity to Asia..short term benefit that will ultimately cost society.
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I talk to people at large firms that have tried to make AI useful to analysts and PMs spending tons of money on it. It's still not useful.
The reality is the people claiming they have incredible AI setups that are proprietary or useful in their investing process are marketing.
The reality is the people claiming they have incredible AI setups that are proprietary or useful in their investing process are marketing.
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No disrespect to anyone in these threads they are all smart guys but all of these takes are nonsense. Haha
Agree with Brett. I.e my prior post on L/S. Put differently, L/S fundamental guys benefitted from continued flows into this strategy via pod shops growing who eventually figured out the whole “buy quality short crap” trade and now that strategy/alpha whatever is gone.
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Bunch of hedge funds drew down in the most crowded trade in history? HF business is completely broken, it's over. lol
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Easy to focus on the demand growth in AI the past year or two..but with algorithmic improvements, systems software/hardware, normal process improvements for chips...combined with huge growth in cap-x...the supply growth is literally insane. You really want to bet on shortages?
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They honey potted Jensen...AI trade is done.
US believes Nvidia’s Huang had romantic relationship with alleged Chinese spy ft.trib.al/5tCtZnH
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Waterworld Capital retweeted
*TEXAS GOVERNOR-ELECT GINA HINOJOSA: WE NEED TO STOP WHAT WE ARE DOING WITH DATA CENTERS UNTIL WE HAVE MEASURES TO PROTECT TEXANS
*HINOJOSA: ITS NOT THT I HATE DATA CENTRES, I HATE THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TECAS AND THAT STOPS WHEN IM GOVERNOR
*HINOJOSA: ITS NOT THT I HATE DATA CENTRES, I HATE THE WAY THEY ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TECAS AND THAT STOPS WHEN IM GOVERNOR
Tonight is an absolute bloodbath for all investors especially AI investors. Texas was the last major stronghold for AI data centers and now that’s GONE. The House is GONE and the Senate is GONE. Get ready for Democrats to go after AI datacenters and regulate this industry into the ground.
Besides stocks are sitting near 52-week lows. Gas is over $5 a gallon. Inflation is at 3.7%. Nobody can afford anything.
But at least I’m glad Iran doesn't have a nuke .@realDonaldTrump much love!
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Waterworld Capital retweeted
Gina Hinojosa says she would issue a moratorium on all *new* Texas data centers until the legislature passes protections
“What I would do is pass laws to protect people. That’s the way this works. Right? It’s not promises that can be broken November 4th, the day after the ssing laws to protect Texans."
"That’s what I’ve called on this governor to do, to call a special session, an emergency special session. He has the sole power to do it. He refuses to do it. He’s received $20 million from data center interests."
"I would issue a moratorium on any new data centers until the legislature can pass laws to protect Texans."
"Everything from water to electricity, jobs, all of it. Right? Making sure we have guardrails when it comes to AI. This is what AI is for. This is what it is not for."
"I just had a press conference yesterday where I denounced Greg Abbott’s plan to convert 100 schools in Houston into AI schools, a model in which teachers are replaced by education guides. This is experimenting on our kids. Parents don’t want this."
"Kids spend enough time on screens, yet this is how big tech makes more money. And Greg Abbott is in the pockets of the big tech donors. So we just need some basic protections and guardrails in law. That’s how this works.”
“What I would do is pass laws to protect people. That’s the way this works. Right? It’s not promises that can be broken November 4th, the day after the ssing laws to protect Texans."
"That’s what I’ve called on this governor to do, to call a special session, an emergency special session. He has the sole power to do it. He refuses to do it. He’s received $20 million from data center interests."
"I would issue a moratorium on any new data centers until the legislature can pass laws to protect Texans."
"Everything from water to electricity, jobs, all of it. Right? Making sure we have guardrails when it comes to AI. This is what AI is for. This is what it is not for."
"I just had a press conference yesterday where I denounced Greg Abbott’s plan to convert 100 schools in Houston into AI schools, a model in which teachers are replaced by education guides. This is experimenting on our kids. Parents don’t want this."
"Kids spend enough time on screens, yet this is how big tech makes more money. And Greg Abbott is in the pockets of the big tech donors. So we just need some basic protections and guardrails in law. That’s how this works.”
SemiAnalysis says the permit pause could run to mid-2027, under the Texas Democrats’ plan, and leave funded data center shells without power
Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros: “And as we’ve said to our clients over the last few weeks and few months, because some projects that are under e you see the shell being built that are already funded. Right?"
"So some of them have raised billions, if not tens of billions of dollars to fund the DC, don’t have the final air pollution permit yet, because historically, timelines are fairly short, and so you could sort of get away with this."
"But I think in other states, stuff takes longer to get approved, and so it does not make sense to have this sort of more aggressive construction strategy. And so there’s a risk, as Maya was saying earlier, that if you followed what the Democrats are proposing in Texas, the pause could be extended until new laws are sort of approved."
"That could extend towards perhaps mid-2027, and then the pause on approving new air pollution permits could be extended from, today, the expectation is about December, into the middle of next year. And as you don’t have this final approval, you’re not allowed to actually build the power plant. The data center, you can, and that’s gonna continue. But the power plants, you won’t."
"And so you could actually see a bunch of shells in this scenario that are halfway built or mostly built but don’t have the electricity to run because they were not able to get the permit effectively.”
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$IREN going forward...has to raise basically it's current market cap in cash... navigate the Texas regulatory issues...the customers hate them...can't get data centers built on time....has no valuation support. I dare the bulls to keep bidding it.
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