US real yields rose 67 bp from May 18 to Nov 10. Europe’s fell 11 bp.
US long-duration equities face a higher discount-rate hurdle while European valuations get relief.
US long-duration equities face a higher discount-rate hurdle while European valuations get relief.
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Mortgage–Treasury spread: 200 bp on Oct 2 to 232 bp on Nov 6.
Lower mortgage rates and fees would let homebuilders cut buyer subsidies and protect margins.
Nov 11 MBA: watch the 7.3% mortgage-rate benchmark.
Lower mortgage rates and fees would let homebuilders cut buyer subsidies and protect margins.
Nov 11 MBA: watch the 7.3% mortgage-rate benchmark.
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Five-year breakevens fell 42 bp from May 11 to Nov 9. Ten-year: just 25 bp.
At 2.25%, the five-year breakeven lowers the inflation hurdle for TIPS to outperform nominal Treasuries.
At 2.25%, the five-year breakeven lowers the inflation hurdle for TIPS to outperform nominal Treasuries.
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Core CPI: 0.3% month on month on Nov 10. Forecast: 0.2%.
Sticky core inflation raises the hurdle for Fed cuts and lower two-year Treasury yields despite headline cooling.
Watch the next core PCE release.
Sticky core inflation raises the hurdle for Fed cuts and lower two-year Treasury yields despite headline cooling.
Watch the next core PCE release.
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Real spending rose 1.8% in the six months through September. Real disposable income rose just 0.4%.
Households filled the gap by saving less. October’s hiring rebound adds paychecks that retailers need to sustain revenue growth.
Households filled the gap by saving less. October’s hiring rebound adds paychecks that retailers need to sustain revenue growth.
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US business loans: up 10.0% annually in September. The demand balance fell 27.8 percentage points from September to October.
Earlier borrowing supports balances. Weaker appetite for new loans threatens banks’ interest-income growth.
Earlier borrowing supports balances. Weaker appetite for new loans threatens banks’ interest-income growth.
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Core CPI: 0.2% expected on November 10. Above 0.3% means acceleration.
That would challenge the case for Fed easing and put upward pressure on two-year Treasury yields.
Watch 13:30 UTC.
That would challenge the case for Fed easing and put upward pressure on two-year Treasury yields.
Watch 13:30 UTC.
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Japan household spending: down 6.8% year on year, versus a 3.1% drop expected.
Further BOJ tightening would add financing pressure to the sales squeeze facing retailers and consumer-service firms.
Further BOJ tightening would add financing pressure to the sales squeeze facing retailers and consumer-service firms.
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Nine-day S&P 500 volatility: 106.5% of one-month volatility on Nov 6.
The discount has flipped to a premium. Rolling short-term protection now carries a higher implied-volatility hurdle than either one-month or three-month protection.
The discount has flipped to a premium. Rolling short-term protection now carries a higher implied-volatility hurdle than either one-month or three-month protection.
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Nov 6 jobs releases: Canada lost 4,700. US private employers added 159,000.
The split strengthens the case for Canadian easing relative to the Fed, putting downward pressure on expected Canadian cash returns versus US cash.
The split strengthens the case for Canadian easing relative to the Fed, putting downward pressure on expected Canadian cash returns versus US cash.
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UK house prices: down 1.2% annually in the Nov 6 release. Bank Rate: 4.0%.
Refinancing households crossing loan-to-value bands face cash top-ups or higher premiums. That drains spending power from UK discretionary retailers.
Refinancing households crossing loan-to-value bands face cash top-ups or higher premiums. That drains spending power from UK discretionary retailers.
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Distillates: a 3.6 million-barrel draw against a 0.3 million-barrel build expected in the November 4 EIA report.
Refineries processed more crude but made less distillate. That supports diesel margins and keeps replenishment pressure on trucking fleets.
Refineries processed more crude but made less distillate. That supports diesel margins and keeps replenishment pressure on trucking fleets.
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Oct 6–Nov 2, 2026: twenty-year yields fell 37 bp. The S&P 500 still fell 3.6% from its peak.
Falling long rates alone are no floor for equities.
The S&P drawdown reached 6.0% on Nov 5.
Falling long rates alone are no floor for equities.
The S&P drawdown reached 6.0% on Nov 5.
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Gulf petroleum exports, excluding Iran and LPG: down 1.8 million barrels a day from September to October.
For refiners dependent on Gulf supplies, freight and insurance on replacement cargoes eat into cheaper crude's earnings benefit.
For refiners dependent on Gulf supplies, freight and insurance on replacement cargoes eat into cheaper crude's earnings benefit.
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ADP: 86,000 jobs. November 6 payroll forecast: 65,000.
Payrolls above 65,000 with wage growth above 0.3% month on month would challenge Fed easing and push two-year Treasury yields higher.
Payrolls above 65,000 with wage growth above 0.3% month on month would challenge Fed easing and push two-year Treasury yields higher.
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Equal weight: +2.2% against cap weight. Small caps: −5.2% against large caps. Three months through 4 November.
Diversification is gaining ground within equal weight. Substituting small caps adds a losing size exposure to that rotation.
Diversification is gaining ground within equal weight. Substituting small caps adds a losing size exposure to that rotation.
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US factories: 55.5 points in October. Global manufacturing: 52.6 points, unchanged since April.
US machinery suppliers have stronger support for sales upgrades than globally diversified industrials.
US machinery suppliers have stronger support for sales upgrades than globally diversified industrials.
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5 November forecasts: productivity +2.8%, unit labor costs +0.6% quarter on quarter.
Stronger productivity paired with softer costs would support lower short-term Treasury yields, even after ADP’s 86,000-job gain.
Stronger productivity paired with softer costs would support lower short-term Treasury yields, even after ADP’s 86,000-job gain.
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Democrats won 2 congressional chambers.
Foreign governments gain room to delay tariff-linked US investment. Machinery valuations need funded projects and equipment orders to turn pledges into earnings.
Foreign governments gain room to delay tariff-linked US investment. Machinery valuations need funded projects and equipment orders to turn pledges into earnings.
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