#Thanks - Thank you to everyone who has followed me to follow along with my midterms coverage. This account gained over 1,000 followers since September, and I can't thank all of you enough!
Also: After the elections, there are now two elected members of Congress following this use. Thanks for following, 🟥 Rep. Michelle Fischbach (MN-7) and 🟦 Rep.-elect Richard Ojeda (NC-9)!
Also: After the elections, there are now two elected members of Congress following this use. Thanks for following, 🟥 Rep. Michelle Fischbach (MN-7) and 🟦 Rep.-elect Richard Ojeda (NC-9)!
0
0
12
1,019
2028 SENATE - Here's what the Senate could look like in 2028. Attached is the current incumbency map, and what another D+14 year would look like, and a "reverse-2026" R+14 year. If Democrats have another tsunami, they could take a filibuster-proof majority. If Republicans have a hey could take back control if they win the presidency (which would be likely in an R+14 year.)
Map uses 2022 victory margins, assumes Democrats win Alaska and Mississippi in 2026, and assumes that a Republican will be appointed to the Tennessee vacant seat.
Map uses 2022 victory margins, assumes Democrats win Alaska and Mississippi in 2026, and assumes that a Republican will be appointed to the Tennessee vacant seat.
3
2
23
5,234
NEWS: Pres. Trump says he would like to work with Democratic majorities on immigration policy, saying that the current policy might be “too tough” for people who have been here for 10+ years — 60 Minutes
1
5
18
2,125
UNCALLED RACES
as of Sunday, 11:8
SENATE
🟦 Alaska, 74% in (likely D win)
🟦 Mississippi, 97% in (likely D)
Total expected: 🟦 56 🟥 44
GOVERNORS
🟦 Alaska, 74% in (very likely D win)
Total expected: 🟦 30 🟥 20
HOUSE
🟥 12, projected R win
🟦 8, projected D win
Total expected: 🟦 260 🟥 175
as of Sunday, 11:8
SENATE
🟦 Alaska, 74% in (likely D win)
🟦 Mississippi, 97% in (likely D)
Total expected: 🟦 56 🟥 44
GOVERNORS
🟦 Alaska, 74% in (very likely D win)
Total expected: 🟦 30 🟥 20
HOUSE
🟥 12, projected R win
🟦 8, projected D win
Total expected: 🟦 260 🟥 175
44
678
6,880
1,217,497
SATURDAY UPDATE: This still stands for the House. No calls for Mississippi or Alaska yet, but I’m expecting Democrats to win there too.
I’m in a bit of a hiatus/vacation as a reward for making to thru the intense Election Night coverage. I’ll return Monday to start up 2028 coverage, and I’ll continue to watch Mississippi/Alaska and post ASAP on this as well.
I’m in a bit of a hiatus/vacation as a reward for making to thru the intense Election Night coverage. I’ll return Monday to start up 2028 coverage, and I’ll continue to watch Mississippi/Alaska and post ASAP on this as well.
CURRENT HOUSE PROJECTION
10:30 PM ET, Thursday 11/5
🟦 260 🟥 175.
Here are my changes from this afternoon's projection:
- I now expect FL-27 to be a Republican Hold due to >99% of votes counted.
- I now expect AZ-8 to be a Republican Hold due to the margin increasing.
- I now expatic Flip due to remaining mail-in votes.
Not race calls; just what I'm seeing.
0
1
31
4,628
NEWS: 🟥 Stephen Miller has been appointed the new White House Chief of Staff by Pres. Trump. He will begin Monday, 11/9. He is replacing Susie Wiles. — FOX News
0
0
5
1,455
CURRENT HOUSE PROJECTION
10:30 PM ET, Thursday 11/5
🟦 260 🟥 175.
Here are my changes from this afternoon's projection:
- I now expect FL-27 to be a Republican Hold due to >99% of votes counted.
- I now expect AZ-8 to be a Republican Hold due to the margin increasing.
- I now expatic Flip due to remaining mail-in votes.
Not race calls; just what I'm seeing.
10:30 PM ET, Thursday 11/5
🟦 260 🟥 175.
Here are my changes from this afternoon's projection:
- I now expect FL-27 to be a Republican Hold due to >99% of votes counted.
- I now expect AZ-8 to be a Republican Hold due to the margin increasing.
- I now expatic Flip due to remaining mail-in votes.
Not race calls; just what I'm seeing.
5
27
266
15,951
#Election2026 - GOVERNOR COMPARISON
USPollWatch Final Governor Prediction Map by Race Rating vs. Actual Governor Results By Victory Margin. Texas and Kansas, both rated Tossup, were projected for Republicans, but in reality went to Democrats. Overall, pretty accurate on winners, more blue than expected.
USPollWatch Final Governor Prediction Map by Race Rating vs. Actual Governor Results By Victory Margin. Texas and Kansas, both rated Tossup, were projected for Republicans, but in reality went to Democrats. Overall, pretty accurate on winners, more blue than expected.
0
4
13
1,468
NEWS: 🟥 TN Gov.-elect Marsha Blackburn rules out resigning and allowing Pete Hegseth to be appointed to her seat.
0
1
14
1,300
NEWS: The NRSC requests for officials in Mississippi set aside and preserve affidavit ballots cast. This move seems to be in preparation for a possible court-ordered recount.
0
1
11
1,451
#Election2026 - Mississippi Senate 2026 UPDATE
I believe Mississippi is too early to call at this time. Certified totals are due Tuesday, 11/10. There remain thousands of ballots, and both Colom and Hyde-Smith have asserted that they think they will win.
No call yet. I'm watching closely.
I believe Mississippi is too early to call at this time. Certified totals are due Tuesday, 11/10. There remain thousands of ballots, and both Colom and Hyde-Smith have asserted that they think they will win.
No call yet. I'm watching closely.
0
2
23
2,660
🟥 Where Republicans Go From Here Into 2028 (Thoughts)
I've been talking about the Democrat's wins a lot. But how can Republicans fight back in '28? There's no sugarcoating it: The GOP is in an extremely tight spot for the 2028 elections, at least in the Senate.
But wave elections are not permanent; In fact, it's likely we'll see moderate to large gains in two years if historical trends hold. Large House swings are fairly common in the House, but the Senate map is not friendly at all, especially with how large the Dem. majority will be. To retake the Senate, it's possible the GOP will need a generic ballot in 2028 of similar magnitudes as this years (R +12 or higher.)
The House is a different story. Huge swings come and go; the Democrats could very well lose 30-40 seats in two years if the generic ballot goes back the other way (which I expect it will.)
For the GOP nominee for president: Things will get very dicey here. Democrats have vowed investigations into Trump admin officials; I wouldn't be surprised if many cabinet members and high ranking officers resign in order to campaign against the current party platform. Rubio has already been rumored to be on the fence about staying. Vance is in an even tighter spot: You can't really resign the Vice Presidency and have your political career survive.
Add in the loss of Trump as a unifying figure, and it's going to be a dogfight for the 2028 GOP nominee (at least, if no one becomes the clear leader.) I still will lean towards Vance on this one. But based on what we've seen, there could be serious division in the party about it's future after Trump. We'll likely see some more establishment Republicans (similar to Romney/Cruz) along with some Freedom Caucus candidates as well. Rubio and Vance are both locks for running, I believe.
Whoever Trump backs will likely be the nominee. He's been strangely silent on the midterm results, as well as the 2028 presidential race. If the GOP wants to have a decent shot at keeping the White House and flipping back the Senate, they'll need to hold their seams together during the split government and rally behind one person.
I've been talking about the Democrat's wins a lot. But how can Republicans fight back in '28? There's no sugarcoating it: The GOP is in an extremely tight spot for the 2028 elections, at least in the Senate.
But wave elections are not permanent; In fact, it's likely we'll see moderate to large gains in two years if historical trends hold. Large House swings are fairly common in the House, but the Senate map is not friendly at all, especially with how large the Dem. majority will be. To retake the Senate, it's possible the GOP will need a generic ballot in 2028 of similar magnitudes as this years (R +12 or higher.)
The House is a different story. Huge swings come and go; the Democrats could very well lose 30-40 seats in two years if the generic ballot goes back the other way (which I expect it will.)
For the GOP nominee for president: Things will get very dicey here. Democrats have vowed investigations into Trump admin officials; I wouldn't be surprised if many cabinet members and high ranking officers resign in order to campaign against the current party platform. Rubio has already been rumored to be on the fence about staying. Vance is in an even tighter spot: You can't really resign the Vice Presidency and have your political career survive.
Add in the loss of Trump as a unifying figure, and it's going to be a dogfight for the 2028 GOP nominee (at least, if no one becomes the clear leader.) I still will lean towards Vance on this one. But based on what we've seen, there could be serious division in the party about it's future after Trump. We'll likely see some more establishment Republicans (similar to Romney/Cruz) along with some Freedom Caucus candidates as well. Rubio and Vance are both locks for running, I believe.
Whoever Trump backs will likely be the nominee. He's been strangely silent on the midterm results, as well as the 2028 presidential race. If the GOP wants to have a decent shot at keeping the White House and flipping back the Senate, they'll need to hold their seams together during the split government and rally behind one person.
0
0
7
1,040
I'm running out of words to describe how seismic of a blue tsunami this election was. The GOP should be thankful that their own redistricting in some states didn't happen. We can already see the damage of the new maps in North Carolina.
If Indiana ended up redistricting, Dems would have won an additional five seats in Indiana. They would have picked up 1-2 more in SC, too.
If all the redistricting happened, Democrats could have seen a possible **270 SEATS** in the House!
If Indiana ended up redistricting, Dems would have won an additional five seats in Indiana. They would have picked up 1-2 more in SC, too.
If all the redistricting happened, Democrats could have seen a possible **270 SEATS** in the House!
This is insane! Here is a map of yesterday’s Indiana House results if they were drawn under the attempted Republican gerrymander map from last Fall. Thank you to @Vulst3 for breaking down the data to make this map. The gerrymander could’ve netted us a 9-0 or 8-1 map potentially!
0
0
7
978
SPEAKER JEFFRIES? - As Democrats are expected to ascend to complete domination in the House with a projected 261 seats, 🟦 Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is also poised to become the Speaker of the House, the first Democratic Speaker since the 2020 cycle and the first African-American Speaker in U.S. history.
However, some Democrats have called for a change in leadership before they take office on 1/3/2027. I'll be covering the lame-duck Congress period here, and soon I'll will be eyeing up 2028.
However, some Democrats have called for a change in leadership before they take office on 1/3/2027. I'll be covering the lame-duck Congress period here, and soon I'll will be eyeing up 2028.
0
0
6
929
GERRYMANDERING: It’s looking like this spring/summer’s gerrymandering push by Republicans has turned out to actually favor Democrats. In a stunning rebuke, the only GOP flips will be TX-32 and LA-6. TN-9 also flipped red, but that has been cancelled out at the state delegation level by a shocking Dem. flip in TN-4!
Incredible night for Democrats; a catastrophe for Republicans that will likely reverberate thru at least to 2030.
Incredible night for Democrats; a catastrophe for Republicans that will likely reverberate thru at least to 2030.
0
1
10
846
CURRENT HOUSE PROJECTION
🟦 261 🟥 174.
Dark districts indicate flips, light districts indicate holds. Democrats are expected to flip 48 districts, while Republicans are expected to flip 3.
🟦 261 🟥 174.
Dark districts indicate flips, light districts indicate holds. Democrats are expected to flip 48 districts, while Republicans are expected to flip 3.
35
268
3,341
127,893