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Hey @grok what was the single biggest catalyst that triggered the dot-com bubble crash in 2000?
Are we seeing similar warning signs today and what could trigger a big correction or crash?
Be brutally honest
Are we seeing similar warning signs today and what could trigger a big correction or crash?
Be brutally honest
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Said it before and saying it again, flying private is one of the weirdest (and dumbest) flexes of all time
Flying private for non-business reasons might be the weirdest flex of all
-200x more dangerous than flying commercial
-Costs an arm and a leg - up to $20k+ per hr to charter a jet
-Less regulation/oversight
-Less experienced pilots
-Older/smaller aircrafts
What am I missing?
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Downtown Portland is truly facing a DIRE situation...
Over the last few months, 3 hotels have sold at BRUTAL 'discounts':
Kimpton RiverPlace: Bought for $65M in 2015, sold for $11M - an ~83% discount
Hotel Zags: $47.5M in 2013, sold for $10M - a ~79% discount
And the craziest portedly sold for $6.8M vs $114M in 2016 - a MASSIVE ~93% discount
On top of these hotels, office properties are literally being sold for pennies on the dollar...
It's WILD to see even if we know the reasons why this is happening
How does Portland recover from this?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
Over the last few months, 3 hotels have sold at BRUTAL 'discounts':
Kimpton RiverPlace: Bought for $65M in 2015, sold for $11M - an ~83% discount
Hotel Zags: $47.5M in 2013, sold for $10M - a ~79% discount
And the craziest portedly sold for $6.8M vs $114M in 2016 - a MASSIVE ~93% discount
On top of these hotels, office properties are literally being sold for pennies on the dollar...
It's WILD to see even if we know the reasons why this is happening
How does Portland recover from this?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
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Triple Net retweeted
Bernard Arnault of LVMH was the richest man earlier this year, with a net worth well over $100 billion
What's fascinating is that he was basically a real estate bro before he pivoted to luxury handbags/beverages
If you're in real estate/business/finance, he's definitely someone nd learn more about because his dealmaking is second to none
Here's the man himself reiterating the importance of execution for any business/start-up
What's fascinating is that he was basically a real estate bro before he pivoted to luxury handbags/beverages
If you're in real estate/business/finance, he's definitely someone nd learn more about because his dealmaking is second to none
Here's the man himself reiterating the importance of execution for any business/start-up
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Triple Net retweeted
It was just a matter of time…All the signs of a violent correction were there
On the bright side, generational opportunities are starting to emerge
For those with cash and a long time horizon you may be in for a big treat
Chin up to all those that are feeling it today - this too shall pass
Have a great weekend
On the bright side, generational opportunities are starting to emerge
For those with cash and a long time horizon you may be in for a big treat
Chin up to all those that are feeling it today - this too shall pass
Have a great weekend
Things are setting up for a VIOLENT market correction:
-Ai bubble fears & leaders screaming for regulation
-10Y at ~5%
-Oil > $100
-Inflation risk back in play
-Fed rate hike fears
-Buffett indicator near historic extremes
-Real estate cracking in major metros
-30Y mortgage at ~7%
-Speculative leverage showing cracks
-Election uncertainty
So we've got...
Expensive stocks + 5% risk free + $100 oil + sticky inflation + Ai bubble fears + leverage + election uncertainty
Buckle up cause it might get VERY bumpy...
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Triple Net retweeted
Stanley Druckenmiller:
"So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy…at 104 times earnings. This is nuts.
Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gunslingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts.
I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there.
So like around March I could feel it coming. I just, I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times the same week I pick up a, don’t do it. Don’t do it.
Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play.
You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that."
"So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy…at 104 times earnings. This is nuts.
Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gunslingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts.
I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there.
So like around March I could feel it coming. I just, I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times the same week I pick up a, don’t do it. Don’t do it.
Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play.
You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that."
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It was just a matter of time…All the signs of a violent correction were there
On the bright side, generational opportunities are starting to emerge
For those with cash and a long time horizon you may be in for a big treat
Chin up to all those that are feeling it today - this too shall pass
Have a great weekend
On the bright side, generational opportunities are starting to emerge
For those with cash and a long time horizon you may be in for a big treat
Chin up to all those that are feeling it today - this too shall pass
Have a great weekend
Things are setting up for a VIOLENT market correction:
-Ai bubble fears & leaders screaming for regulation
-10Y at ~5%
-Oil > $100
-Inflation risk back in play
-Fed rate hike fears
-Buffett indicator near historic extremes
-Real estate cracking in major metros
-30Y mortgage at ~7%
-Speculative leverage showing cracks
-Election uncertainty
So we've got...
Expensive stocks + 5% risk free + $100 oil + sticky inflation + Ai bubble fears + leverage + election uncertainty
Buckle up cause it might get VERY bumpy...
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Triple Net retweeted
I’m a partner in a CRE shop with ~$1B AUM & I tell most people not to allocate to private CRE most of the time.
Cullen Roche & Adam Katz have the right frame: asset-liability matching. Pensions/insurers live by it, individuals mostly ignore it. The question isn’t “what’s the best investment,” it’s “when do I need this money and what’s actually built for that horizon.”
Private CRE fund is 7-10 year money. Capital calls on sponsors schedule, distributions when they say, no exit button. It’s the longest duration, least liquid thing most people will ever own. Any realistic chance you need it sooner and there are problems. The IRR on the deck is irrelevant.
Even when it IS 10 year money, two more gates:
Does the deal work on its own terms? Going-in yield vs cost of debt w/ room for things to break. Well above replacement cost or an exit cap I don’t believe = pass.
Does it beat everything else that belongs in the opportunity set? Public equities, PE, private credit, your own business? Some years a plain index fund wins, nobody’s collecting carry on it, and it's liquid.
Anyone telling you it’s always a good time to allocate to CRE is selling allocation, not returns.
Duration first -> Then vintage -> Then the opportunity set.
In that order.
Cullen Roche & Adam Katz have the right frame: asset-liability matching. Pensions/insurers live by it, individuals mostly ignore it. The question isn’t “what’s the best investment,” it’s “when do I need this money and what’s actually built for that horizon.”
Private CRE fund is 7-10 year money. Capital calls on sponsors schedule, distributions when they say, no exit button. It’s the longest duration, least liquid thing most people will ever own. Any realistic chance you need it sooner and there are problems. The IRR on the deck is irrelevant.
Even when it IS 10 year money, two more gates:
Does the deal work on its own terms? Going-in yield vs cost of debt w/ room for things to break. Well above replacement cost or an exit cap I don’t believe = pass.
Does it beat everything else that belongs in the opportunity set? Public equities, PE, private credit, your own business? Some years a plain index fund wins, nobody’s collecting carry on it, and it's liquid.
Anyone telling you it’s always a good time to allocate to CRE is selling allocation, not returns.
Duration first -> Then vintage -> Then the opportunity set.
In that order.
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Triple Net retweeted
Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going
- AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience
- AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search
- AI Mose incentivizes dialog, u engaged to serve more ads at each turn
- Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company
- As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet
- This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations
- This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
- AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience
- AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search
- AI Mose incentivizes dialog, u engaged to serve more ads at each turn
- Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company
- As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet
- This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations
- This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse
We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
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Triple Net retweeted
There was a day your mother picked you up for the last time.
Neither of you knew it.
When you were small, she carried you thousands of times. Then it was hundreds, then a handful, and then one ordinary afternoon she set you down and never picked you up again.
It happened to both of you, and neither of you can remember the day.
If she had known, she would have held on a little longer.
Every ordinary thing you share with someone you love has a final count. It is true of the phone calls, the Sunday dinners, and the hugs at the front door.
The number is already set, and nobody ever gets to see it.
A last time feels exactly like every other time. Nothing about the moment changes. Everything after it does.
So right now, you are living through moments whose meaning has not been decided yet.
Your phone holds years of photos. The cloud keeps every message you have ever sent, and the machines being built now are learning to recall every conversation you have had.
They are getting better at predicting what you will buy, what you will watch, and what you will say next. They still cannot show you the count.
A machine can already learn someone’s voice and have it say things they never said. It still cannot give you back the last thing they actually said to you.
A machine can store a moment, but only you can be there for it.
Somewhere ahead of you is the last time your dad calls just to talk, the last time your kid asks you to stay until they fall asleep, and the last time everyone you love fits in one room.
You are on someone else’s count too. There will be a last time your kid runs to meet you when you get home, and neither of you will know it.
Something ordinary in your life is happening for the last time right now, and it looks like nothing.
Grief always arrives late. It waits until something is gone before it lets you feel what it was worth.
Paying attention is the only way to feel it on time.
Neither of you knew it.
When you were small, she carried you thousands of times. Then it was hundreds, then a handful, and then one ordinary afternoon she set you down and never picked you up again.
It happened to both of you, and neither of you can remember the day.
If she had known, she would have held on a little longer.
Every ordinary thing you share with someone you love has a final count. It is true of the phone calls, the Sunday dinners, and the hugs at the front door.
The number is already set, and nobody ever gets to see it.
A last time feels exactly like every other time. Nothing about the moment changes. Everything after it does.
So right now, you are living through moments whose meaning has not been decided yet.
Your phone holds years of photos. The cloud keeps every message you have ever sent, and the machines being built now are learning to recall every conversation you have had.
They are getting better at predicting what you will buy, what you will watch, and what you will say next. They still cannot show you the count.
A machine can already learn someone’s voice and have it say things they never said. It still cannot give you back the last thing they actually said to you.
A machine can store a moment, but only you can be there for it.
Somewhere ahead of you is the last time your dad calls just to talk, the last time your kid asks you to stay until they fall asleep, and the last time everyone you love fits in one room.
You are on someone else’s count too. There will be a last time your kid runs to meet you when you get home, and neither of you will know it.
Something ordinary in your life is happening for the last time right now, and it looks like nothing.
Grief always arrives late. It waits until something is gone before it lets you feel what it was worth.
Paying attention is the only way to feel it on time.
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Downtown Seattle's decline is impossible to ignore...
The city's PLUMMETING commercial real estate valuations tell the story
Just look at these recent deals:
Roosevelt Commons: Bought for $157M in 2019, sold for $27M - an ~83% discount
901 Fifth Avenue: $304M in 2019, sold ount
Plaza 600: Valued at $97M in a 2019, sold for $12.5M - a MASSIVE ~87% decline
And it's not just office buildings. Retail centers and hotels have been DECIMATED over the last several years
Seattle was truly one of the great American cities but has been destroyed in recent years due to obvious reasons
How does downtown Seattle recover from this?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
The city's PLUMMETING commercial real estate valuations tell the story
Just look at these recent deals:
Roosevelt Commons: Bought for $157M in 2019, sold for $27M - an ~83% discount
901 Fifth Avenue: $304M in 2019, sold ount
Plaza 600: Valued at $97M in a 2019, sold for $12.5M - a MASSIVE ~87% decline
And it's not just office buildings. Retail centers and hotels have been DECIMATED over the last several years
Seattle was truly one of the great American cities but has been destroyed in recent years due to obvious reasons
How does downtown Seattle recover from this?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
Around half of Seattle businesses report that are considering moving or shrinking, blaming a business environment that they say is getting worse and don’t believe it looks like it will get better, according to a survey from the Downtown Seattle Association and Seattle Commerce. kiro7.com/news/local/sur…
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Downtown Minneapolis just took a MASSIVE hit...
The Royal Sonesta, an upscale 360 room hotel, just sold for just $5M - a BRUTAL 93% 'discount' from its $75M purchase price in 2018
That's just ~$14K per room, down from ~$208K just 8 years ago...
Here's the interesting part:
ely prime by downtown Minneapolis standards
It's an upscale, 4-star property in the HEART of DT Minneapolis, steps from Nicollet Mall and connected to the city's skyway system
It's genuinely WILD seeing hotels like this being sold at 90%+ discounts, even knowing what's driving these sales...
What does the future hold for Minneapolis?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
The Royal Sonesta, an upscale 360 room hotel, just sold for just $5M - a BRUTAL 93% 'discount' from its $75M purchase price in 2018
That's just ~$14K per room, down from ~$208K just 8 years ago...
Here's the interesting part:
ely prime by downtown Minneapolis standards
It's an upscale, 4-star property in the HEART of DT Minneapolis, steps from Nicollet Mall and connected to the city's skyway system
It's genuinely WILD seeing hotels like this being sold at 90%+ discounts, even knowing what's driving these sales...
What does the future hold for Minneapolis?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive discounts
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This applies to 'professional' investors too, including famous fund managers who make millions/billions a year w/ virtually unlimited resources
Just b/c someone can raise a lot of money, has a fancy title, or has a large following doesn’t mean they’re a good investor whatsoever
Just b/c someone can raise a lot of money, has a fancy title, or has a large following doesn’t mean they’re a good investor whatsoever
Some guy buying the SP500 every month, grilling burgers in his backyard right now, and doing 0 research, will outperform a shocking number of people who spend 8 hours a day analyzing the stock market.
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Triple Net retweeted
with lots of tech layoffs happening, its a good reminder:
$250,000 a year jobs are actually really fucking rare.
if you have one, you are in the top 1% of earners IN THE ENTIRE WORLD
hold on tight
$250,000 a year jobs are actually really fucking rare.
if you have one, you are in the top 1% of earners IN THE ENTIRE WORLD
hold on tight
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Downtown Portland keeps taking BRUTAL hits...
The 174 room Hotel Zags just sold for $10M - a MASSIVE ~79% haircut from the $47.5M Pebblebrook Hotel Trust paid in 2013
Here's the kicker:
The hotel is in the HEART of downtown Portland, steps from major attractions and public ested ~$7M renovating and repositioning the hotel just a few years ago, only to sell it for a fraction of its original purchase price...
I visited Portland recently, and honestly, the challenges downtown are hard to ignore
Where did it go so wrong for Portland?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive 'discounts'
The 174 room Hotel Zags just sold for $10M - a MASSIVE ~79% haircut from the $47.5M Pebblebrook Hotel Trust paid in 2013
Here's the kicker:
The hotel is in the HEART of downtown Portland, steps from major attractions and public ested ~$7M renovating and repositioning the hotel just a few years ago, only to sell it for a fraction of its original purchase price...
I visited Portland recently, and honestly, the challenges downtown are hard to ignore
Where did it go so wrong for Portland?
Stay tuned and follow for more commercial real estate deals trading at massive 'discounts'
Spent time in Portland recently and I hate to say it but the city is a complete disaster and that's not an exaggeration
As a reminder, the iconic 'Big Pink' building sold for an insane $39 per SF - an 88% discount to its last transaction price
The wild thing is the buyer for it IMO
What do you think the future holds for Portland?
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Triple Net retweeted
@Yuchenj_UW I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
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Spent time in Portland recently and I hate to say it but the city is a complete disaster and that's not an exaggeration
As a reminder, the iconic 'Big Pink' building sold for an insane $39 per SF - an 88% discount to its last transaction price
The wild thing is the buyer for it IMO
What do you think the future holds for Portland?
As a reminder, the iconic 'Big Pink' building sold for an insane $39 per SF - an 88% discount to its last transaction price
The wild thing is the buyer for it IMO
What do you think the future holds for Portland?
‘Pretty gruesome’: Local business owners speak out after more human remains found in Downtown Portland koin.com/news/portland/…
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Seattle's office apocalypse continues...
A prime 120K sq ft office building in Seattle is heading to auction and will likely sell at a MASSIVE discount
Here are the details:
-Starting Bid: $2 million ($16 per sq ft)
-Last sold for $33.6 million in 2016 ($280 per sq ft)
-Size: 62% leased
Recent office deals in Seattle have sold close to a 90% 'discount' to their last transaction price
We're truly living in unprecedented times...
Stay tuned for more updates on the office market meltdown
A prime 120K sq ft office building in Seattle is heading to auction and will likely sell at a MASSIVE discount
Here are the details:
-Starting Bid: $2 million ($16 per sq ft)
-Last sold for $33.6 million in 2016 ($280 per sq ft)
-Size: 62% leased
Recent office deals in Seattle have sold close to a 90% 'discount' to their last transaction price
We're truly living in unprecedented times...
Stay tuned for more updates on the office market meltdown
JUST IN: A prime office tower in downtown Seattle just sold at a MASSIVE 84% 'discount' from its 2019 price
The 541k sq ft building sold for $48M - a measly $89 per sq ft
It last sold for $305M in 2019 - wiping out $256M in value
Here's the crazy part:
This isn't a building n - it's a 41 story tower in the HEART of DT Seattle and underwent ~$20M in improvements in the last several years
While the building was 100% leased when sold in 2019, 50%+ of the building was vacant in 2026
Seattle is truly facing an office market apocalypse...
Stay tuned and follow for more updates on the office market meltdown
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