Pinned Tweet
4 months of correctly predicted price action so far.
Minor tweak: because Feb’s low was breached, the HTF MSB now sits at 82.8k. Break that level and the probability that we’re in a new uptrend rises above 90%.
$BTC #Bitcoin
Minor tweak: because Feb’s low was breached, the HTF MSB now sits at 82.8k. Break that level and the probability that we’re in a new uptrend rises above 90%.
$BTC #Bitcoin
$BTC HTF Update
As much as I’m a HTF bull, I must admit that the move from the February 6 low to the high 70s appears corrective. Therefore, it looks like the max pain scenario from here—for both bulls and bears—is more chop.
A month ago I flagged a possible expanding leading : x.com/TraderJBx/stat…), and then we got a correction down to the March 29 low. Normally, this 1-2 is followed by a strong wave 3, but the move from March 29 to now has been too slow, too overlapping, too easy to get into, and has left far too much stops/liquidity behind. There are LTF impulses, but they feel forced, the corrections between them are excessively long, and when you zoom out the structure simply doesn’t look like a true impulse. It could very well be an inverted ABC.
If this read is correct, it becomes more probable that the C wave of this HTF expanded flat contains an extended wave 1, the advance from the February 6 low to the present is wave 4, and we still have a final downward wave 5 to complete (as shown in the attached chart and the right-hand chart in the quoted post). It remains to be seen whether wave 5 will sweep the $60k low (full impulse) or truncate. Either way, what follows should mark the true start of the next impulsive uptrend.
I have to admit this scenario would be perfect from both a sentiment and technical perspective:
1) Price first pumps above the February high to test/fill the 1D inefficiency (see this post: x.com/TraderJBx/stat…). Bulls celebrate, call the correction over and new ATHs are coming… only to get rejected hard.
2) Price then delivers the final downward wave 5 of the expanded flat. Big players take all the liquidity below and shakes out retail.
3) At the lows, bears cheer and declare the “bear market” is back… only for price to find strong support and immediately begin the next uptrend.
4) Neither bulls nor bears get the outcome they want. The whole process can easily take considerably longer than expected, leaving both sides impatient, chopped out, and/or forced to exit positions.
The invalidation of this scenario is a clear impulsive HTF market structure break (from mid-air) above the previous HTF lower high: the $97.9k high of January 14.
#Bitcoin
2
9
74
11,924
$BTC
One month has passed since the warning at the local top about this correction. However, since we haven’t convincingly lost the $80k level, the extension scenario remains alive.
As a reminder, I currently have two wave counts in mind for the structure from the bottom:
1) left chart, where wave (v) is already complete and we are now in the circled wave ii. it would fit well as the correction from the local top is now –9.35% — the deepest so far since the bottom — and has lasted longer than wave (iv).
2) The count shared in the right chart, where we are still in wave (ii) of circled wave v, with invalidation at $74.9k.
Right now, it's a coin flip regarding probability. More price action is needed to confirm which wave count is correct, but the HTF compass still points north.
#Bitcoin
One month has passed since the warning at the local top about this correction. However, since we haven’t convincingly lost the $80k level, the extension scenario remains alive.
As a reminder, I currently have two wave counts in mind for the structure from the bottom:
1) left chart, where wave (v) is already complete and we are now in the circled wave ii. it would fit well as the correction from the local top is now –9.35% — the deepest so far since the bottom — and has lasted longer than wave (iv).
2) The count shared in the right chart, where we are still in wave (ii) of circled wave v, with invalidation at $74.9k.
Right now, it's a coin flip regarding probability. More price action is needed to confirm which wave count is correct, but the HTF compass still points north.
#Bitcoin
$BTC
Five waves have now printed from the $57.8k low, so that level officially becomes the invalidation for the bullish HTF market structure. I don’t want to kill the vibe, but waves (iii) and (v) are showing the classic bearish RSI divergence. On top of that, some bears who y are already admitting they were wrong and flipping bullish, so a 2–3 month correction wouldn’t surprise me.
Of course, there are more bullish paths—extensions that keep sending price higher, so yes, 'up or down' post but the goal here is not to choose a short-term direction, it’s just to suggest caution. The most probable medium- to long-term direction remains up, and we now have a clear invalidation level.
If the bearish RSI divergence plays out, #Bitcoin should print a local top inside the red supply zone or slightly above it. ETH and TOTAL3ES are showing the same structure and RSI divergence.
6
0
30
2,033
People saying that $80K is holding for $BTC. NO it is not. Perfect time to short. People in denial, and lack experience, common sense.
Bitcoin is going lower.
- Wynn
5
1
30
2,943
$CRV
I know it's annoying to wait for these consolidations to fully develop, but I actually prefer them over the fast, inefficient moves like the ones shaded in red. Why? Simple: in the event of a future correction, they should act as solid support. As you can see, after the red e had little trouble retracing them.
Let nature take its course. The days of celebration are coming.
#CurveFinance
I know it's annoying to wait for these consolidations to fully develop, but I actually prefer them over the fast, inefficient moves like the ones shaded in red. Why? Simple: in the event of a future correction, they should act as solid support. As you can see, after the red e had little trouble retracing them.
Let nature take its course. The days of celebration are coming.
#CurveFinance
6
5
118
5,491
Clear downward impulse from $84.9k on the 30-minute timeframe. $81.2k liquidity swept into support and w3–w5 RSI bullish divergence. If we're going to bounce, it should be from around here.
We need to reclaim the origin of this impulse to invalidate it, preferably in an #Bitcoin
We need to reclaim the origin of this impulse to invalidate it, preferably in an #Bitcoin
4
1
28
2,081
Posted “a pullback soon wouldn’t surprise me” on the local top day—then came a -27% pullback ✅
Time to accelerate and print wave 3?
$CRCL #Circle
Time to accelerate and print wave 3?
$CRCL #Circle
$CRCL
+59% since shared. Raising SL to $57.84—a new impulse was born from that level.
We’re currently in a supply zone after five waves developed, with the classic w3-w5 RSI divergence. A pullback soon wouldn’t surprise me. If it happens, I’ll look to add while keeping the same the new invalidation level.
That’s how you increase position size along the way and earn more without increasing risk.
#Circle
2
1
9
1,482
$BTC
If we are in an extended fifth wave, nature's mathematics prove that a peak near the current ATH should not come as a surprise, just as Microsoft did recently.
A typical Fibonacci relationship for extended fifth waves is that the fifth wave measures 1.618 times the the origin of wave 1 to the peak of wave 3, projected from the bottom of wave 4. Using the local top near circled wave iii ($82,300) and the impulse origin ($57,800):
Wave i–iii distance = 42.39%
Wave iv bottom = $74,968
42.39% × 1.618 = 68.58%
$74,968 + 68.58% = $126,377
#Bitcoin’s current ATH is approximately $126,200. Under the present structure, a typical golden section scenario would therefore peak almost exactly at the ATH (see left chart), with a remarkably small error of about 0.14%. This is truly impressive.
“JB, is there any way to estimate how the internal structure of the fifth wave might look?”
Another common relationship in impulses is that wave 5 ends near the 1.618 extension of the net travel of waves 1 through 3. By placing the Fibonacci tool so that zero sits at the origin of the fifth wave ($74,968) and the 1.618 level sits at the projected peak ($126,377), the peak of wave (iii) of the fifth wave lands at approximately $106,741.
A speculative complete fifth wave based on this relationship is shown on the right chart. With wave (iii) topping at $106,741 and wave (iv) retracing a similar percentage as wave (ii), wave (iv) would bottom near $97,555—a level that would also align with structural support.
If we are in an extended fifth wave, nature's mathematics prove that a peak near the current ATH should not come as a surprise, just as Microsoft did recently.
A typical Fibonacci relationship for extended fifth waves is that the fifth wave measures 1.618 times the the origin of wave 1 to the peak of wave 3, projected from the bottom of wave 4. Using the local top near circled wave iii ($82,300) and the impulse origin ($57,800):
Wave i–iii distance = 42.39%
Wave iv bottom = $74,968
42.39% × 1.618 = 68.58%
$74,968 + 68.58% = $126,377
#Bitcoin’s current ATH is approximately $126,200. Under the present structure, a typical golden section scenario would therefore peak almost exactly at the ATH (see left chart), with a remarkably small error of about 0.14%. This is truly impressive.
“JB, is there any way to estimate how the internal structure of the fifth wave might look?”
Another common relationship in impulses is that wave 5 ends near the 1.618 extension of the net travel of waves 1 through 3. By placing the Fibonacci tool so that zero sits at the origin of the fifth wave ($74,968) and the 1.618 level sits at the projected peak ($126,377), the peak of wave (iii) of the fifth wave lands at approximately $106,741.
A speculative complete fifth wave based on this relationship is shown on the right chart. With wave (iii) topping at $106,741 and wave (iv) retracing a similar percentage as wave (ii), wave (iv) would bottom near $97,555—a level that would also align with structural support.
I haven’t seen anyone talk about this scenario.
What’s interesting is that $MSFT—an asset with more than twice the market cap of $BTC—just showed it’s possible.
I'm positioned if it happens. Are you?
2
2
39
2,194
$CVX
Range high reached ✅ This took a lot of patience, but here we are again.
Above current levels sits the 10/10 supply zone, which is expected to be a heavy one. Odds favor consolidation around or below it before a full breakout.
I hope my previous posts helped you see that ver and avoid panic selling at the lows.
Range high reached ✅ This took a lot of patience, but here we are again.
Above current levels sits the 10/10 supply zone, which is expected to be a heavy one. Odds favor consolidation around or below it before a full breakout.
I hope my previous posts helped you see that ver and avoid panic selling at the lows.
$CVX
This thing is taking much longer than expected, but the structure remains exactly as anticipated: a deviation/manipulation below the 2026 range. With BTC pulling back, a temporary dip wouldn’t be surprising but I’m watching for a hold above $1.04 to form a higher low and cture intact.
As you know, I’m counting the move from the lows as a 1-2 setup. This means wave 3 is still ahead as long as $1.04 holds, aligning with the fact that the longer the consolidation, the more explosive the eventual expansion tends to be. If I had to bet, once price reclaims the range, the rally toward the highs should be relatively fast, targeting the red supply zone and likely producing another deviation above the range high at some point.
#ConvexFinance
6
1
53
3,787
“Ask any trader. Any real EW trader. It doesn’t matter if the impulse holds by a penny or ten grand. Holding is holding.”
— Dominic Toretto
$XRP
— Dominic Toretto
$XRP
Given the high probability that the bottom is already in for both BTC and ETH, $XRP is very likely to have bottomed as well—especially considering the impulsive move from the lows. The current setup offers solid short-term and long-term opportunities.
We have two clear ht now: $1.24 and $0.98. The lower level is significantly safer, but it is also much further away, reducing the R:R while substantially increasing the probability of the trade working.
There are a few ways I would play this depending on risk tolerance:
1) Higher risk aversion: If I believe the blue impulse is going to hold, I would sacrifice 1R taking the green trade. I say "sacrifice" because if the invalidation is hit, I would buy my own stop-loss, enter the yellow trade and ride the trend from there.
2) Lower risk aversion: I would enter the blue trade directly, or wait for the yellow one—while accepting that the yellow trade may never come.
My preferred approach is to first wait for BTC and/or ETH to sweep/approach their local lows (as outlined in my last ETH post), then reassess where XRP stands before deciding which trade to take. A safer alternative is to wait for the market structure shift (mss) mentioned in that same post before entering, though this would meaningfully reduce the R:R.
4
0
27
2,128
Looking at the $CRV/BTC chart, it seems we could soon resume outperforming Bitcoin. We managed a weekly close above 467 sats at the end of August, which was rejected, but price has been holding nicely inside the red supply zone for weeks.
As mentioned in the quoted post, a break ave no relevant resistance until 813 sats (mid-range).
#CurveFinance
As mentioned in the quoted post, a break ave no relevant resistance until 813 sats (mid-range).
#CurveFinance
Yeah, 380s as first resistance area (lower boundary of the red supply zone), but the real challenge will be securing a weekly close above 467 sats. You can outline a local accumulation range here: 467 sats as range high, the 380s as mid-range, and the 2024 low (296 sats) as range ed the range low and are seeing a strong bullish reaction. As long as this level holds, $CRV should outperform $BTC in the long term. A weekly close above 467 sats would then target the mid-level of the HTF range at 813 sats.
4
3
66
4,517
$TAO
Perfect retest of $270.8 on the weekly timeframe so far. The two most important lines right now are marked on the chart. As long as we hold the green line as support, we’ll likely get another chance to break out above the red diagonal resistance—in which case price should pressing inside the triangle, a resolution should come before the end of 2026.
The trade from the quoted post remains valid, but I’ve allocated that risk to XRP, so I’m no longer taking it here on #Bittensor.
Perfect retest of $270.8 on the weekly timeframe so far. The two most important lines right now are marked on the chart. As long as we hold the green line as support, we’ll likely get another chance to break out above the red diagonal resistance—in which case price should pressing inside the triangle, a resolution should come before the end of 2026.
The trade from the quoted post remains valid, but I’ve allocated that risk to XRP, so I’m no longer taking it here on #Bittensor.
$TAO
Another full impulse has developed from $213 with a 3–5 RSI divergence. By now you should know how effective this divergence is for spotting local tops and bottoms, and why it is an essential part of my trading strategy.
The June 14 daily and weekly close acted as tember before the breakout. We have not retested that level yet, and equal lows are sitting around $277. If price tests that area, I will look for another long targeting $378.
#Bittensor
0
0
7
1,103
After threatening to break down all weekend, $BTC closed the week at 82.1k (good enough for me), with no daily closes below 81.2k.
Bulls 2–0 Bears.
Bulls 2–0 Bears.
2
0
36
1,683