I’ve seen this movie before. When I formed the TL20 four years ago, it dropped 25% within three months. Nvidia was down 60%. Since that time, Nvidia is up 1,062% and the TL20 is up 325%. Great stocks of great companies come back.
Great deals on great stocks of great companies
the past two days, many of the best companies in technology are trading for lower valuations than they traded for five years ago, even though their businesses are doubtless in better shape than five years ago. These are buying opportunities.
thetechnologyletter.com
$NVDA
Great deals on great stocks of great companies
the past two days, many of the best companies in technology are trading for lower valuations than they traded for five years ago, even though their businesses are doubtless in better shape than five years ago. These are buying opportunities.
thetechnologyletter.com
$NVDA
0
0
3
688
This is when fortunes are made in tech stocks. Tech companies shine best when they are able to work within limitations to produce great results rather than dabble in frictionless money. If it’s true that a rising tide of fantasy financing lifts all ships, as it has been, it’s ee who’s naked when the tide rolls out, to paraphrase Mr. Buffett.
Blue Wave: Great for tech stock investing
The “relief rally” following the Democrats’ big sweep of mid-term elections is producing sharp wins and losses, including a big rally in renewable energy technology such as the 14% jump in Nextpower, and a big sell-off in chip names such as the 6% drop in Micron Technology. The bigger picture is that this is a healthy reset for an AI data center movement that was addicted to frictionless financing. What remains when the dust settles will be a very healthy stock-picker’s market for the best tech companies.
thetechnologyletter.com
$NXT $MU $NVDA
Blue Wave: Great for tech stock investing
The “relief rally” following the Democrats’ big sweep of mid-term elections is producing sharp wins and losses, including a big rally in renewable energy technology such as the 14% jump in Nextpower, and a big sell-off in chip names such as the 6% drop in Micron Technology. The bigger picture is that this is a healthy reset for an AI data center movement that was addicted to frictionless financing. What remains when the dust settles will be a very healthy stock-picker’s market for the best tech companies.
thetechnologyletter.com
$NXT $MU $NVDA
0
0
3
813
Dynamic Duo: Two of my favorite companies have super reports this evening. At the helm are two of my favorite executives, Lisa Su and Jayshree Ullal, two of the best managers in the world, in any industry, that we’ve ever seen.
Stellar results lift shares of AMD, Arista
sidestepped the personal computer trap that Intel fell into, reporting a nice year-over-year gain in sales, while Arista Networks delivered an outlook for 2027 well above what was expected. Both of these engines continue to function superbly in the AI market, lead by two of the best managers ever.
thetechnologyletter.com
@AristaNetworks
@AMD
$AMD
$ANET
Stellar results lift shares of AMD, Arista
sidestepped the personal computer trap that Intel fell into, reporting a nice year-over-year gain in sales, while Arista Networks delivered an outlook for 2027 well above what was expected. Both of these engines continue to function superbly in the AI market, lead by two of the best managers ever.
thetechnologyletter.com
@AristaNetworks
@AMD
$AMD
$ANET
0
0
5
915
There are signature deals in a bubble. This might be the JDS-Fitel-buys-Uniphase of our times…
Marvell for Lumentum: a new JDS-Uniphase?
Marvell Technology’s all-stock deal for Lumentum is its second ill-advised fiber-optics deal in less than a year — Ill-advised because it’s t brings dilution, and it comes at a time when the prospects of massive AI spending are being called into question. Expect both companies to be in “deal purgatory,” as one analyst puts it.
thetechnologyletter.com/the-posts/marv…
$MRVL
$LITE
Marvell for Lumentum: a new JDS-Uniphase?
Marvell Technology’s all-stock deal for Lumentum is its second ill-advised fiber-optics deal in less than a year — Ill-advised because it’s t brings dilution, and it comes at a time when the prospects of massive AI spending are being called into question. Expect both companies to be in “deal purgatory,” as one analyst puts it.
thetechnologyletter.com/the-posts/marv…
$MRVL
$LITE
0
0
1
751
Yesterday I was on Schwab Network’s “Market on Close” with Marley Kayden and Sam Vadas to discuss Apple earnings. As I talked about in the segment, the main issue is supply for Apple at the moment, the problem of getting enough chips to build stuff. I talked more about that in post.
schwabnetwork.com/video/iphone-d…
@MarleyKayden
@SchwabNetwork
schwabnetwork.com/video/iphone-d…
@MarleyKayden
@SchwabNetwork
0
0
3
584
The TL Podcast: What is the second derivative?
It’s the central point in all the AI financial bubble worries right now, and it’s not usually talked about in depth. So, I took a crack at it this week.
Here's how to think about a second derivative. You have enormous amounts of reading about, hearing about by the tech giants to build AI data centers. It's estimated that spending by this whole universe of companies rose 51% in 2025. It's gonna rise again 56% this year to $1.2 trillion. And after that, a gently asymptoting curve, you could say, when large growth slows. From 56% growth in 2026, going to 22%, 14%, 10%, 6%. Law of large numbers, this is slowing. I’ve heard others referencing the second derivative. I've even heard some people comparing this to the subprime mortgage crisis. And, the point being, something that starts out legitimate, where you have homebuyers just wanting to get a mortgage for a place they're gonna live in, then turns into a situation where there are people getting second and third homes to flip them. It's speculative. They come in with poor credit, poor credit scores, and they get a mortgage anyway. So, the lending starts to go to the bad borrowers. There’s a general decline in the overall credit situation of the market. So, there’s a vicious cycle here of credit decline, credit quality decline, that starts to act on the whole ecosystem of the investment. ◆
thetechnologyletter.com
It’s the central point in all the AI financial bubble worries right now, and it’s not usually talked about in depth. So, I took a crack at it this week.
Here's how to think about a second derivative. You have enormous amounts of reading about, hearing about by the tech giants to build AI data centers. It's estimated that spending by this whole universe of companies rose 51% in 2025. It's gonna rise again 56% this year to $1.2 trillion. And after that, a gently asymptoting curve, you could say, when large growth slows. From 56% growth in 2026, going to 22%, 14%, 10%, 6%. Law of large numbers, this is slowing. I’ve heard others referencing the second derivative. I've even heard some people comparing this to the subprime mortgage crisis. And, the point being, something that starts out legitimate, where you have homebuyers just wanting to get a mortgage for a place they're gonna live in, then turns into a situation where there are people getting second and third homes to flip them. It's speculative. They come in with poor credit, poor credit scores, and they get a mortgage anyway. So, the lending starts to go to the bad borrowers. There’s a general decline in the overall credit situation of the market. So, there’s a vicious cycle here of credit decline, credit quality decline, that starts to act on the whole ecosystem of the investment. ◆
thetechnologyletter.com
0
0
3
536
Live on Schwab Network Today
Tune in today at 4:40 Eastern to hear me talk with Schwab Network’s Marley Kayden on the “Market on Close” segment, discussing Apple and Palantir earnings. I always enjoying the depth of Marley’s questions. I expect it will be a good segment.
Check stream it live on the Schwab Network home page: schwabnetwork.com
@MarleyKayden
@SchwabNetwork
Tune in today at 4:40 Eastern to hear me talk with Schwab Network’s Marley Kayden on the “Market on Close” segment, discussing Apple and Palantir earnings. I always enjoying the depth of Marley’s questions. I expect it will be a good segment.
Check stream it live on the Schwab Network home page: schwabnetwork.com
@MarleyKayden
@SchwabNetwork
0
2
8
1,110
I’ve been interviewing executives during earnings season for decades now, and the challenge is always to get a message across that is coherent and that’s beyond the moment in the midst of what can be mild panic in after-hours trading. I think Khozema Shipchandler of Twilio was very well in that respect when we chatted yesterday evening, a day that was a rough one for all of tech not just his stock.
Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’
Shares of software maker Twilio plummeted as investors sold the company’s lower-than-expected growth projection for 2027. But, there are several levers to the business that are under-appreciated, says CEO Khozema Shipchandler, in particular, the role of being essential infrastructure for two parts of AI infrastructure, automated voice communications and the new wave of consumer shopping bots.
thetechnologyletter.com
$TWLO
Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’
Shares of software maker Twilio plummeted as investors sold the company’s lower-than-expected growth projection for 2027. But, there are several levers to the business that are under-appreciated, says CEO Khozema Shipchandler, in particular, the role of being essential infrastructure for two parts of AI infrastructure, automated voice communications and the new wave of consumer shopping bots.
thetechnologyletter.com
$TWLO
0
0
2
630
Hynix’s quarterly dividend of 20,000 Korean Won is $15 is a huge jump, year over year. That’s $1.50 for every American Depository Receipt. For a stock trading at 2.5 times projected earnings, that’s a steal of a deal. You can understand why everyone wants to believe these good right along.
SK Hynix surges: Memory’s in great shape, a huge payout, what could go wrong?
The memory-chip market continues to see incredible trends according to SK Hynix, whose results are trouncing expectations. The company’s stock is surging 13% as it hands over an enormous dividend. Estimates are rising and analysts are pounding the table for the stock. The only real question is how fast will supply come on?
thetechnologyletter.com
$SKHY
$MU
SK Hynix surges: Memory’s in great shape, a huge payout, what could go wrong?
The memory-chip market continues to see incredible trends according to SK Hynix, whose results are trouncing expectations. The company’s stock is surging 13% as it hands over an enormous dividend. Estimates are rising and analysts are pounding the table for the stock. The only real question is how fast will supply come on?
thetechnologyletter.com
$SKHY
$MU
0
0
1
543
The TL Podcast for October 26th: Is this the soft landing?
Are we in for a soft landing or a hard landing? Meaning, do stocks simply lose ground, lose altitude like a balloon slowly leaking air? Or are we headed for something of a much sharper sort of correction? We've seen a all it a reset, but we've seen a less-demanding valuation environment. Nvidia was trading at 9 times sales when I picked it for the October rebalancing. That was based on a reference date of October 7th. It is trading now for 8.2 times. Well, here's a hopeful thought: Maybe the rest of the year, the last sixty days of the year of 2026 are all about these stocks losing air like a balloon slowly deflating. And that would make any disappointment from the Apollo Globals of the world less jarring in 2027 should they in fact walk away from the multi-hundred billion dollar projects they have chosen to fund.
thetechnologyletter.com
Are we in for a soft landing or a hard landing? Meaning, do stocks simply lose ground, lose altitude like a balloon slowly leaking air? Or are we headed for something of a much sharper sort of correction? We've seen a all it a reset, but we've seen a less-demanding valuation environment. Nvidia was trading at 9 times sales when I picked it for the October rebalancing. That was based on a reference date of October 7th. It is trading now for 8.2 times. Well, here's a hopeful thought: Maybe the rest of the year, the last sixty days of the year of 2026 are all about these stocks losing air like a balloon slowly deflating. And that would make any disappointment from the Apollo Globals of the world less jarring in 2027 should they in fact walk away from the multi-hundred billion dollar projects they have chosen to fund.
thetechnologyletter.com
0
0
1
449
I had a delightful chat with Charlie Giancarlo of Everpure and board member Andy Brown. Their perspective of decades in building technology appeals to the historian in me. The problem they’ve addressed with Everpure’s software is a significant one. The piles of data sprawling is really a mess, in my view. The notion that “trillions” worth of white collar work can be automated via AI in short order is not realistic until this problem is confronted.
Everpure CEO: AI is prompting a great ‘inversion’ of decades of technology investment
Decades of buying information technology have left enterprises in a mess: piles of data that are redundant, inconsistent, and unmanageable. The matter could get worse as so-called AI agents enter the mix, say Everpure chief executive Charlie Gianncarlo and venture capitalist Andy Brown. Their solution is a new kind of “map” of enterprise data. It could be as big a change as the move from mainframes to mini computers. It could also boost Everpure’s stock valuation. There are deeper implications for the AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, and for the AI trade itself.
thetechnologyletter.com
$P
@EverpureData
Everpure CEO: AI is prompting a great ‘inversion’ of decades of technology investment
Decades of buying information technology have left enterprises in a mess: piles of data that are redundant, inconsistent, and unmanageable. The matter could get worse as so-called AI agents enter the mix, say Everpure chief executive Charlie Gianncarlo and venture capitalist Andy Brown. Their solution is a new kind of “map” of enterprise data. It could be as big a change as the move from mainframes to mini computers. It could also boost Everpure’s stock valuation. There are deeper implications for the AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic, and for the AI trade itself.
thetechnologyletter.com
$P
@EverpureData
0
1
3
647
I wouldn’t parse the Seagate results tonight too closely. It continues to be more of the same, which is to say, a phenomenal opportunity for the two dominant vendors of hard drives for the AI wave.
Seagate sells off but the outlook is still very good
After a 142% rise this Seagate is trading lower on what could be construed as less-impressive upside. Clearly, the bar has been raised. But the forecast for this quarter’s sales suggests the market for hard drives continues to be very strong, and the profit-margin expansion here is simply stunning.
thetechnologyletter.com
$STX $WDC
Seagate sells off but the outlook is still very good
After a 142% rise this Seagate is trading lower on what could be construed as less-impressive upside. Clearly, the bar has been raised. But the forecast for this quarter’s sales suggests the market for hard drives continues to be very strong, and the profit-margin expansion here is simply stunning.
thetechnologyletter.com
$STX $WDC
0
0
2
635
I continue to be amazed not only by the rapid expansion of Celestica’s business but also by the way that they’ve been able to turn that into higher profitability. There were lots of nice things heard, also, on Tuesday from the company that portend well for various tech vendors .
Celestica surges as the AI chip race keeps going
The custom-chip market for AI is fueling growth next year for Celestica well above what the Street has been projecting. And profit margin is going higher as well. There are also positive signs here for the computer networking and data storage complex with bodes well for Arista, Ciena, Everpure and others.
thetechnologyletter.com
$CLS
$JBL
$FLEX
Celestica surges as the AI chip race keeps going
The custom-chip market for AI is fueling growth next year for Celestica well above what the Street has been projecting. And profit margin is going higher as well. There are also positive signs here for the computer networking and data storage complex with bodes well for Arista, Ciena, Everpure and others.
thetechnologyletter.com
$CLS
$JBL
$FLEX
0
0
2
735
There’s no discussion of pricing in the Anthropic draft IPO filing. My sense is this market definitely will see pricing pressure, which calls into question the majority of revenue that is “consumption”-based, and that is not entirely at fixed, agreed-to prices. That’s one of the ntment.
Anthropic: Not sure it’s sane nor bold, maybe wasteful
Anthropic has committed to over three quarters of a trillion dollars just from what it discloses of compute capacity agreements. Add that to a “controlled company” stock, founders with a lock on voting, a massive convertible debt possibility, interest rate exposure via money markets, a incalculable insurance risk and this IPO looks like a dog. Is a fast-growth business of $12 billion a quarter worth all this?
thetechnologyletter.com
@AnthropicAI
Anthropic: Not sure it’s sane nor bold, maybe wasteful
Anthropic has committed to over three quarters of a trillion dollars just from what it discloses of compute capacity agreements. Add that to a “controlled company” stock, founders with a lock on voting, a massive convertible debt possibility, interest rate exposure via money markets, a incalculable insurance risk and this IPO looks like a dog. Is a fast-growth business of $12 billion a quarter worth all this?
thetechnologyletter.com
@AnthropicAI
1
0
4
881
Merrill Lynch’s Andrew Obin conducts what is becoming an annual ritual of exhaustively going through all the vendors of data centers. It’s a great exercise if you want to take your mind off of the very bothersome matter of where all the money for this is supposed to come from…
tion, but you can still pick ‘winners’
Street wisdom is divided over the AI trade, with the hopeful perspective depicting trillions in liquidity to fuel more building and the negative slant being just rotate out of the infrastructure vendors. But, you can stil pick winners in the data center. And, SpaceX’s massive cellular investment comes into focus and with it ominous signs for the telcos.
thetechnologyletter.com
$SPCX
$DELL
$MRVL
tion, but you can still pick ‘winners’
Street wisdom is divided over the AI trade, with the hopeful perspective depicting trillions in liquidity to fuel more building and the negative slant being just rotate out of the infrastructure vendors. But, you can stil pick winners in the data center. And, SpaceX’s massive cellular investment comes into focus and with it ominous signs for the telcos.
thetechnologyletter.com
$SPCX
$DELL
$MRVL
0
0
7
928
Investors are deciding to get out while the getting’s good. Stellar results only portend possible heartbreak as far as the AI trade, it seems. However, I suspect what most investors miss is that it’s supply not demand that they have a hard time really guess-timating. That’s an n these times.
It’s time to sell the winners again as Western Digital, Bloom report outstanding results, shares drop
Another raft of excellent financial reports Thursday by Bloom Energy and Western Digital prompted sell-offs. The longer that business continues to hum right along, the more it raises concerns that it can’t last. Hopefully, the selling is a kind of “soft landing” for stocks, a way to take the pressure out of a very pressured stock market.
thetechnologyletter.com
$WDC
$BE
It’s time to sell the winners again as Western Digital, Bloom report outstanding results, shares drop
Another raft of excellent financial reports Thursday by Bloom Energy and Western Digital prompted sell-offs. The longer that business continues to hum right along, the more it raises concerns that it can’t last. Hopefully, the selling is a kind of “soft landing” for stocks, a way to take the pressure out of a very pressured stock market.
thetechnologyletter.com
$WDC
$BE
1
0
2
624
It can be useful to talk to vendors if you know the right questions to ask. As regards Artificial Intelligence, I had a stimulating chat last week with Snowflake executives Jonathan Beaulier, chief revenue officer; Anahita Tafvizi, chief data and AI officer; Denise Persson, chief Christian Kleinerman, executive vice president of product. We’re still very, very early in the deployment of AI by most companies. There are signs of hope, however.
Use of AI is boosting Snowflake’s revenue while mortal companies may take longer
Software giant Snowflake is in the top tier of companies finding they can automate tasks inside the company such as financial reporting and the identification of sales prospects. It’s already boosting revenue and profit. There are encouraging signs for ordinary companies using AI but it’s clear they still have a very steep learning curve to “transform” their businesses.
thetechnologyletter.com
$SNOW
@Snowflake
Use of AI is boosting Snowflake’s revenue while mortal companies may take longer
Software giant Snowflake is in the top tier of companies finding they can automate tasks inside the company such as financial reporting and the identification of sales prospects. It’s already boosting revenue and profit. There are encouraging signs for ordinary companies using AI but it’s clear they still have a very steep learning curve to “transform” their businesses.
thetechnologyletter.com
$SNOW
@Snowflake
0
0
1
477