Pinned Tweet
I poured my heart and soul into this essay. Give it a read.
x.com/TheiaResearch/…
x.com/TheiaResearch/…
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Felipe Montealegre retweeted
Let’s listen to an expert on the claims that Bitcoin is going to zero. 👇
Please listen to Dan Boneh (top 5 cryptographer alive today) who is known to be measured and judicious in his comments describe the probability that Bitcoin is able to transition to a post-quantum world.
Lots of opinions out there - be careful who you listen to.
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Dan Boneh on the Satoshi coins: game theory shows that a fork will end with the 'burn Satoshi' chain decisively winning, so why even play the game?
Please listen to Dan Boneh (top 5 cryptographer alive today) who is known to be measured and judicious in his comments describe the probability that Bitcoin is able to transition to a post-quantum world.
Lots of opinions out there - be careful who you listen to.
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Just in case any builders are wondering
Theia has no interest in expanding the mandate and we will continue spending 100% of our time and capital on companies building the Internet Financial System
our DMs are open if that interests you
Theia has no interest in expanding the mandate and we will continue spending 100% of our time and capital on companies building the Internet Financial System
our DMs are open if that interests you
Just in case any builders are wondering
@multicoin has no interest in expanding the mandate and we will continue spending 100% of our time and capital on crypto and blockchain markets
our DMs are open if that interests you
@shayonsengupta @tushar_jain @masonnystrom @0x_Lucas
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Felipe Montealegre retweeted
The first conference I ever went to, I really wanted to talk to someone about my strange esoteric philosophic views on bitcoin but I was nervous.
I picked this nice man to rant to for about 15 mins before he politely excused himself to give the keynote.
It was Dan Boneh 😭
I picked this nice man to rant to for about 15 mins before he politely excused himself to give the keynote.
It was Dan Boneh 😭
Please listen to Dan Boneh (top 5 cryptographer alive today) who is known to be measured and judicious in his comments describe the probability that Bitcoin is able to transition to a post-quantum world.
Lots of opinions out there - be careful who you listen to.
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mental model of the day - schelling point
when people can't talk, they converge on the "obvious answer"
eg
WWI Christmas Truce
Meet a stranger at NYC Grand Central
didn't pick a time for lunch - meet at noon
BTC as store of value
List of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
when people can't talk, they converge on the "obvious answer"
eg
WWI Christmas Truce
Meet a stranger at NYC Grand Central
didn't pick a time for lunch - meet at noon
BTC as store of value
List of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
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Bitcoin is going to be fine on quantum.
Lab grown gold through nuclear fusion appears commercially viable at scale on a quantum timeline.
5-Year Real Declines:
Diamonds -60%
SaaS multiples -70%
30Y UST -50%
Stay liquid. Stay nimble and open minded.
Lab grown gold through nuclear fusion appears commercially viable at scale on a quantum timeline.
5-Year Real Declines:
Diamonds -60%
SaaS multiples -70%
30Y UST -50%
Stay liquid. Stay nimble and open minded.
Please listen to Dan Boneh (top 5 cryptographer alive today) who is known to be measured and judicious in his comments describe the probability that Bitcoin is able to transition to a post-quantum world.
Lots of opinions out there - be careful who you listen to.
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Felipe Montealegre retweeted
agree that majority of the flows are event-driven flows
however, I strongly believe that both $CRED and $UMBRA are criminally undervalued
Credible is doing $6m in rev and trades at 1.3x multiple - the market is basically pricing in zero future growth for this biz. meanwhile their payment volume is +50% QoQ
Umbra just launched their v2, which I'd argue is currently the best privacy solution on Solana. their v1 was built on top of Arcium, but ran into headwinds using that stack, so they stripped it away, and built the entire stack from the ground up using zk (Nimbus). go deposit some assets into the shielded pools and give it a go and come to your own realizations
the peers for UMBRA trade in the magnitudes of 10-1000x higher, but I'd argue that their tech stack already, and will continue to, rival its peers. I currently view UMBRA as the most asymmetric, pure-play bet on privacy for crypto-specific use cases: trading & payments
I continue to believe that there are some incredibly undervalued, fundamental companies in the metadao ecosystem and expect these to reprice in due time
(nfa // disc. long both assets)
however, I strongly believe that both $CRED and $UMBRA are criminally undervalued
Credible is doing $6m in rev and trades at 1.3x multiple - the market is basically pricing in zero future growth for this biz. meanwhile their payment volume is +50% QoQ
Umbra just launched their v2, which I'd argue is currently the best privacy solution on Solana. their v1 was built on top of Arcium, but ran into headwinds using that stack, so they stripped it away, and built the entire stack from the ground up using zk (Nimbus). go deposit some assets into the shielded pools and give it a go and come to your own realizations
the peers for UMBRA trade in the magnitudes of 10-1000x higher, but I'd argue that their tech stack already, and will continue to, rival its peers. I currently view UMBRA as the most asymmetric, pure-play bet on privacy for crypto-specific use cases: trading & payments
I continue to believe that there are some incredibly undervalued, fundamental companies in the metadao ecosystem and expect these to reprice in due time
(nfa // disc. long both assets)
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mental model of the day - mauboussin's paradox of skill
luck matters more as participants approximate perfect play
eg
top vcs chasing the same deals
large cap efficient public markets
Catan
Complete list of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
luck matters more as participants approximate perfect play
eg
top vcs chasing the same deals
large cap efficient public markets
Catan
Complete list of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
mental model of the day - ergodicity
100 people who go to the casino once lose 5% in aggregate
one person who goes the casino 100 times blows up (-100%)
applies to anything that creates a 0 boundary (leverage, shorting, etc)
Complete list of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
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Felipe Montealegre retweeted
We just sent the SEC our comment letter on Regulation Crypto Assets.
Our goal is to give every token one current, public record to make onchain compliance cheaper and faster.
Our asks:
1) Let projects file disclosures through Qualified Onchain Disclosure Agents
2) Let ehalf of projects
It's time we protect investors so we can protect this industry.
cdn.blockworks.com/s/assets/m7wk9…
Our goal is to give every token one current, public record to make onchain compliance cheaper and faster.
Our asks:
1) Let projects file disclosures through Qualified Onchain Disclosure Agents
2) Let ehalf of projects
It's time we protect investors so we can protect this industry.
cdn.blockworks.com/s/assets/m7wk9…
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There is so much competition in money movement. Stripe / Mastercard+ are building stablecoin-to-fiat rails, thousands of smaller players handle the last mile; even central banks are getting fast and cheap.
By 2030, moving money will be fast, cheap, convenient and unprofitable.
By 2030, moving money will be fast, cheap, convenient and unprofitable.
Good Money2020. All of the truly interesting 0-1 innovation in financial services is happening onchain.
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Good Money2020. All of the truly interesting 0-1 innovation in financial services is happening onchain.
Just spent the last twelve months going *extremely* deep on fintech (an area that I already knew well) and I promise that all of the truly interesting 0-1 innovation is happening onchain.
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mental model of the day - ergodicity
100 people who go to the casino once lose 5% in aggregate
one person who goes the casino 100 times blows up (-100%)
applies to anything that creates a 0 boundary (leverage, shorting, etc)
Complete list of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
100 people who go to the casino once lose 5% in aggregate
one person who goes the casino 100 times blows up (-100%)
applies to anything that creates a 0 boundary (leverage, shorting, etc)
Complete list of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
mental model of the day - polya urn
every win makes the next win likelier. true in life when you have momentum and sometimes with tech / standards / companies (first winner takes the market)
eg
vhs over betamax
Google / FB
Complete list of 700 MMs: theia.investments/mental-models
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Please listen to Dan Boneh (top 5 cryptographer alive today) who is known to be measured and judicious in his comments describe the probability that Bitcoin is able to transition to a post-quantum world.
Lots of opinions out there - be careful who you listen to.
Lots of opinions out there - be careful who you listen to.
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fully backs this up during the interview where he goes through the many ways Bitcoin can transition to PQ along with pros / cons of each
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x.com/isabelfoxenduk…
BITCOIN RAILS #61: QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY FOR BITCOIN | with Dan Boneh @danboneh
🔗 YOUTUBE: youtu.be/F-HG87VJj_k
🌿 SPOTIFY: open.spotify.com/episode/7ly1k2…
One of the most prolific and influential cryptographers in the world, it’s difficult to fully quantify the impact that Dan n and digital assets more broadly.
Through both his own research and his mentorship of some of the space’s most important contributors — e.g. Andrew Poelstra, @benediktbuenz, and @robin_linus — few people have done more to shape the cryptographic foundations underlying modern blockchains and digital finance.
More recently, Dan co-authored @Google's widely discussed paper, “Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies against Quantum Vulnerabilities,” which reduced prior estimates of the resources required to run Shor’s algorithm against the elliptic-curve cryptography used by Bitcoin.
The paper reignited debate around quantum computing timelines and the long-term security assumptions behind modern cryptocurrencies.
In this episode of Bitcoin Rails, Dan and I discuss the current state of quantum computing, its potential implications for Bitcoin, and how he believes the Bitcoin community should think about preparing for a post-quantum future over the coming decade and beyond.
And yes, Dan shares his take on the “when quantum” question in the interview, among other key perspectives.
This episode of Bitcoin Rails is brought to you by my NEW sponsors:
LayerTwo Labs @LayerTwoLabs — developing research, software, and technologies for scaling Bitcoin via the integration of Drivechains (BIP 300/301)
Hashi on @SuiNetwork — a primitive for executing Bitcoin Defi transactions, without having to trust a federated bridge or other centralized entity
BitBox @BitBoxSwiss — an open-source Bitcoin-only hardware wallet, with smooth UX and no compromises on security. Check out Bitbox [dot] swiss and use code BITCOINRAILS to get a discount
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 — Intro and Dan’s history with cryptography and Bitcoin
11:44 — Shor's algorithm: how a 1994 paper became cryptography's most important threat
16:39 — Building a quantum computer: superconducting qubits vs neutral atoms
25:37 — When should we start worrying about quantum computers? The timeline debate
31:51 — Have we already reached quantum computing's “ahá” moment?
39:09 — Inside the Google paper: how Shor's algorithm was optimized
49:57 — The Bitcoin mempool attack and the 10-minute window
59:21 — Mitigation: what should Bitcoin do to prepare for quantum?
1:11:54 — Hash-based vs lattice-based signatures: Dan's case for lattice
1:23:15 — ZK proofs, BIP361, and what to do with Satoshi's coins
1:31:52 — Encrypted mempools and MEV
1:38:29 — Why Bitcoin will survive quantum and Dan's message to Bitcoin builders
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Felipe Montealegre retweeted
My favorite mental model in Theia's repository, can be helpful from systems design to everyday decision making
mental model of the day - dancing landscapes
most people think about solving for global maxima in static landscapes (eg optimal shovel length for efficiency)
but most of life is dancing landscapes (eg competitive environment, consumer preferences, stock market participants)
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