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My 2026 forecasts:
GDP H1 lifts to 2.5%; sub 2.0% in H2
Unemployment rate to 5%
Inflation eases 2.0 to 2.25%
Wages growth soggy at 3%
RBA cuts to 3.10%
10 yr bonds 4.00%
AUD lifts to 75 c
House prices – no change, downside risks
ASX200 – below 8,000
youtube.com/watch?v=u6007K…
GDP H1 lifts to 2.5%; sub 2.0% in H2
Unemployment rate to 5%
Inflation eases 2.0 to 2.25%
Wages growth soggy at 3%
RBA cuts to 3.10%
10 yr bonds 4.00%
AUD lifts to 75 c
House prices – no change, downside risks
ASX200 – below 8,000
youtube.com/watch?v=u6007K…
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ICYMI
Tough economic love from Keating four decades ago that saw another 2 or 3 election wins.
Change in real govt spending:
1986-87 -1.1%
1987-88 -0.9%
1988-89 -3.1%
Govt spending as a share of GDP fell from 27.2% to 23.1%, a staggering 4 puts in 3 years
Tough economic love from Keating four decades ago that saw another 2 or 3 election wins.
Change in real govt spending:
1986-87 -1.1%
1987-88 -0.9%
1988-89 -3.1%
Govt spending as a share of GDP fell from 27.2% to 23.1%, a staggering 4 puts in 3 years
My Latest:
Economic tough love now, political gold in future
If Treasurer Chalmers can convince PM Albanese to change & show a bit of spine on economic policy, Labor can go to the 2028 election campaign with the political gold dust of budget surpluses, lower inflation & interest rate cuts to present to the electorate.
With the MYEFO 6 weeks away, there is time for the Government to bring together policy changes to transform the economic & political landscape.
independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…
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It's Melbourne Cup day!
The form is always tricky with so many international raiders, some first up over 3,200 metres – Yikes.
Anyway, my tips are here.
Good luck punters. May the horse be with you.
Bet only what you can afford to lose; you win some you lose more.
youtube.com/watch?v=xs9r0Z…
The form is always tricky with so many international raiders, some first up over 3,200 metres – Yikes.
Anyway, my tips are here.
Good luck punters. May the horse be with you.
Bet only what you can afford to lose; you win some you lose more.
youtube.com/watch?v=xs9r0Z…
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My Latest:
Economic tough love now, political gold in future
If Treasurer Chalmers can convince PM Albanese to change & show a bit of spine on economic policy, Labor can go to the 2028 election campaign with the political gold dust of budget surpluses, lower inflation & interest rate cuts to present to the electorate.
With the MYEFO 6 weeks away, there is time for the Government to bring together policy changes to transform the economic & political landscape.
independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…
Economic tough love now, political gold in future
If Treasurer Chalmers can convince PM Albanese to change & show a bit of spine on economic policy, Labor can go to the 2028 election campaign with the political gold dust of budget surpluses, lower inflation & interest rate cuts to present to the electorate.
With the MYEFO 6 weeks away, there is time for the Government to bring together policy changes to transform the economic & political landscape.
independentaustralia.net/politics/polit…
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How absurdly Sydney centric is the RBA?
It will again be making an interest rate announcement when there is a public holiday in Melbourne. It is impossible to imagine a scenario when the RBA would make an interest rate annoucenment when there is a public holiday in Sydney.
The ABS is not releasing any data, the AOFM is not issuing bonds or Notes, yet the RBA is making a key interest rate announcement.
It is a big deal.
This more than an irritation, but self indulgent slop from the people who chose the dates on RBA interest rate announcements. Like meeting the day before inflation data are released as it was in September.
It will again be making an interest rate announcement when there is a public holiday in Melbourne. It is impossible to imagine a scenario when the RBA would make an interest rate annoucenment when there is a public holiday in Sydney.
The ABS is not releasing any data, the AOFM is not issuing bonds or Notes, yet the RBA is making a key interest rate announcement.
It is a big deal.
This more than an irritation, but self indulgent slop from the people who chose the dates on RBA interest rate announcements. Like meeting the day before inflation data are released as it was in September.
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Westpac's Luci Eliis shows up Patricia Karvalis for her shockly ignorant knowledge of economics & recent data. Probably wont stop PK giggling away with some folksie take on the economy tomorrow. Via @DeanRosario x.com/DeanRosario/st…
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Dwelling building approvals, in trend terms, are at their highest since 2021.
More dwellings are on their way
ICYMI
More dwellings are on their way
ICYMI
Residential building approvals edge back up – the supply response for housing continues in a good way for those interested in affordability & availability.
The 5% lift in the number of approvals in Sep followed a 5% fall in August. There were a large number of lower cost dwellings - apartments - approved in the month.
youtube.com/watch?v=O0kMCC…
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Wait till Speersy realises there's no means testing or income related tax breaks for the poor for Medicare, the PBS, public education, tertiary education, road usage, alcohol, petrol, the GST...
Massive spending in the COVID era was inflationary. And still this government keeps spending huge sums supporting schemes that fund wealthy people’s consumption. With cheap Chinese EVs, the responsible thing to do is cancel these subsidies.
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Residential building approvals edge back up – the supply response for housing continues in a good way for those interested in affordability & availability.
The 5% lift in the number of approvals in Sep followed a 5% fall in August. There were a large number of lower cost dwellings - apartments - approved in the month.
youtube.com/watch?v=O0kMCC…
The 5% lift in the number of approvals in Sep followed a 5% fall in August. There were a large number of lower cost dwellings - apartments - approved in the month.
youtube.com/watch?v=O0kMCC…
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National house prices down:
Some suggest interest rates are a key issue,
But with prices rising in Darwin & Hobart, where borrowers pay the same interest rate as Sydney & Brisbane, prices are rising
National house prices down:
Some suggest interest rates are a key issue,
But with prices rising in Darwin & Hobart, where borrowers pay the same interest rate as Sydney & Brisbane, prices are rising
Down 6.7% - the fall in house prices continues.
House prices fell 1.2% in October to be 6.7% down from the March peak.
Good news for rental affordability & inflation: Cotality showed the rental vacancy rate rose to 2.3%.
In yet another example where house prices buck changes in interest rates, dwelling prices rose in Hobart & Darwin. I can assure you that the folks in those two great cities pay the same interest rate as those in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth & Wagga Wagga.
Just goes to show that when it comes to house prices, other factors dominate interest rates.
youtube.com/watch?v=brmBCD…
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Down 6.7% - the fall in house prices continues.
House prices fell 1.2% in October to be 6.7% down from the March peak.
Good news for rental affordability & inflation: Cotality showed the rental vacancy rate rose to 2.3%.
In yet another example where house prices buck changes in interest rates, dwelling prices rose in Hobart & Darwin. I can assure you that the folks in those two great cities pay the same interest rate as those in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth & Wagga Wagga.
Just goes to show that when it comes to house prices, other factors dominate interest rates.
youtube.com/watch?v=brmBCD…
House prices fell 1.2% in October to be 6.7% down from the March peak.
Good news for rental affordability & inflation: Cotality showed the rental vacancy rate rose to 2.3%.
In yet another example where house prices buck changes in interest rates, dwelling prices rose in Hobart & Darwin. I can assure you that the folks in those two great cities pay the same interest rate as those in Sydney, Brisbane, Perth & Wagga Wagga.
Just goes to show that when it comes to house prices, other factors dominate interest rates.
youtube.com/watch?v=brmBCD…
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A huge week ahead. Listen in why
A huge week ahead. Listen in why
It's Bigger than Big! The Next 5 Days.
In addition to Tuesday's RBA interest rate decision & Melbourne Cup, it's a huge week for economics & markets news.
House prices; building approvals; household spending; international trade balance for goods; US elections & a brittle stock market, to name a few.
Knock ‘em out!
youtube.com/watch?v=rCZy9t…
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Melbourne Cup preview...
Melbourne Cup preview...
Forget interest rates, Tuesday is Melbourne Cup Day!
The form is always tricky with so many international raiders, some first up over 3,200 metres – Yikes.
My tips are here. Good luck punters. May the horse be with you.
Remember - bet only what you can afford to lose.
youtube.com/watch?v=xs9r0Z…
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It's Bigger than Big! The Next 5 Days.
In addition to Tuesday's RBA interest rate decision & Melbourne Cup, it's a huge week for economics & markets news.
House prices; building approvals; household spending; international trade balance for goods; US elections & a brittle stock market, to name a few.
Knock ‘em out!
youtube.com/watch?v=rCZy9t…
In addition to Tuesday's RBA interest rate decision & Melbourne Cup, it's a huge week for economics & markets news.
House prices; building approvals; household spending; international trade balance for goods; US elections & a brittle stock market, to name a few.
Knock ‘em out!
youtube.com/watch?v=rCZy9t…
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Forget interest rates, Tuesday is Melbourne Cup Day!
The form is always tricky with so many international raiders, some first up over 3,200 metres – Yikes.
My tips are here. Good luck punters. May the horse be with you.
Remember - bet only what you can afford to lose.
youtube.com/watch?v=xs9r0Z…
The form is always tricky with so many international raiders, some first up over 3,200 metres – Yikes.
My tips are here. Good luck punters. May the horse be with you.
Remember - bet only what you can afford to lose.
youtube.com/watch?v=xs9r0Z…
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Isn't it funny when prime knobs & blowhards are shown up in this way
@RussellEganr@TheKoukeasures raise substantial revenue (negative gearing/CGT ~$43bn over 9 years, trusts ~$4.5bn over 5), improving medium-term sustainability after funding worker tax cuts, though behavioural shifts may trim the net take.
Taxpayers will pivot: Investors already favour new builds or non-property assets; trusts restructure ahead of 2028 rules; CGT indexation and 30% floor prompt longer holds or alternative planning around 2027 valuations.
Rental supply and construction: Limited stimulation expected. Early new-build lending rose but capacity constraints and industry models show net fewer dwellings overall; total investment may fall, tightening rentals.
Inflation: Mildly disinflationary via reduced private demand, yet possible rent rises (Treasury ~$2/week) could offset; net effect small amid broader policy.
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If addition to smashing shareholder's wealth, Geoff is missing what should be an obvious issue that the tax changes do take money out of the economy, further repair the budget & take some pressure off inflation. It's pretty simple. But I suppose if you've never worked in an area that implements govt policy, you can be excused for being ignorant of how it all works
Using your words: @TheKouk classic “jellyback” take.
Opposing the world’s highest effective CGT rate (and the negative gearing hit) isn’t “wanting a bigger deficit and stimulus”. It’s opposing a tax that hammers productive investment, housing supply and ordinary people trying to build wealth.
You’re equating tax rates with government spending. That’s either economic illiteracy or deliberate spin. People aren’t stupid and the polling shows they see right through it. Spineless defence of economic vandalism.
Time to grow a backbone.
Any other thoughts on the Kouk?
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It's really odd that when there are problems with inflation, the likes of @GeoffWilsonWAM want a larger budget deficit and govt stimulus
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