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very excited to finally start unveiling @lattica
prediction markets crave credit and leverage, but existing solutions simply can't handle jump risk. relying on liquidations is a death wish.
Lattica approaches the problem completely differently. instead of trying to hedge around jump risk, we price it and charge a premium for the expected loss upfront.
basically, we treat prediction market positions like insurance contracts, not options.
the article below and especially at lattica.fi go into much more detail, and we have a lot more on the way.
if you're a builder, trader, investor, quant, or market maker who wants to learn more, my DMs are always open
prediction markets crave credit and leverage, but existing solutions simply can't handle jump risk. relying on liquidations is a death wish.
Lattica approaches the problem completely differently. instead of trying to hedge around jump risk, we price it and charge a premium for the expected loss upfront.
basically, we treat prediction market positions like insurance contracts, not options.
the article below and especially at lattica.fi go into much more detail, and we have a lot more on the way.
if you're a builder, trader, investor, quant, or market maker who wants to learn more, my DMs are always open
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counterpoint
The most underrated trait I've seen in high achievers: they have ZERO childhood friends.
As a kid, your friends are pre-determined by where you live or go to school.
That's why most of them are mediocre and you quickly outgrow them.
But as adults, you get to choose your friends.
The more ambitious you are, the more likely you are to seek a new, ambitious social circle.
That's why Marc Andreessen, Walt Disney, and Tim Cook all left their rural hometowns for NYC, LA, and San Francisco.
If you still regularly hang out with high school friends, you’re probably not ambitious enough.
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seems like it would be much easier to do this with prediction/decision markets instead?
Storonsky doesn't trust his own intuition on what to build.
He says he's been wrong too many times. So Revolut runs new products like a trading desk:
1. Each bet gets a team of up to 10: backend, frontend, a designer, a product owner
2. 9 to 18 months to launch
3. Then it's growth
4. The best bets grow 10-20% a month and get more teams, then a department, then their own P&L
5. Anything in the bottom 25% of its cohort gets shut down
Top bets get funded. Bottom bets get cut within 18 months.
That's how a travel card turned into a bank, a broker and a crypto exchange.
Full breakdown here:
productmarketfit.tech/p/revolut-play…
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Steve retweeted
Claude studies like these are always 10,000 pages long, seem legit enough, but the problem is whoever is publishing them clearly can't be bothered to proofread the whole thing themselves.
Otherwise they'd realize the AI always puts in some dumbass caveat at the end like this
Otherwise they'd realize the AI always puts in some dumbass caveat at the end like this
Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big.
At best it's a niche product.
Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more p reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without.
Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them.
The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it.
And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan.
So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market.
The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet.
Full case study in comments
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requires an actual peanut brain to think that election markets are manipulable for any notable amount of time
As mentioned in the article, when someone placed $1.25 million on Spencer Pratt to win the LA Mayor race, there was only a significant price distortion for 9 seconds.
Other traders are incentivized to bring the price back down. You can see this visualized below
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the trenches need a reset
people need the opportunity to make massive amounts of money wherever their edge is without the possibility of getting rugged
that opportunity is prediction markets and @Lattica
people need the opportunity to make massive amounts of money wherever their edge is without the possibility of getting rugged
that opportunity is prediction markets and @Lattica
Today, kimchi (@kimchi1x) received 500M $kimchi and posted about the token, and @a1lon9 reposted it.
But @a1lon9 later undid his repost, and @kimchi1x deleted the post.
$kimchi quickly surged to a $14M market cap before crashing over 95%.
We found that the scammers used $kimchi at low prices and later sold for over $385K in profit.
solscan.io/account/4RZDCg…
solscan.io/account/98xo3E…
solscan.io/account/5qVRRi…
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new paper came out on the accuracy of prediction markets
tldr, they are very accurate
tldr, they are very accurate
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Steve retweeted
everyone building prediction market leverage asked “how do we liquidate fast enough?”
Stefan asked a different question: what if you never liquidate at all?
turns out these positions don’t move like derivatives. they move like insurance. so he priced them like an actuary, not a ected loss upfront as a premium. the risk is covered before the trade even opens. one position going to zero doesn’t touch the pool.
this is the clip that reframed how I think about the entire space.
Stefan asked a different question: what if you never liquidate at all?
turns out these positions don’t move like derivatives. they move like insurance. so he priced them like an actuary, not a ected loss upfront as a premium. the risk is covered before the trade even opens. one position going to zero doesn’t touch the pool.
this is the clip that reframed how I think about the entire space.
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the incentive of a normal casino, sportsbook, and PM is to drive you to 0 as fast as possible because the percentage of revenue they can take from you is fixed at deposit. the only way they can earn more from you is to have you deposit more.
@Lattica, in contrast, is fully aligned with users:
1) winning traders are safer for our pool
2) because we settle on other venues, we're not the counterparty. winners take from traders on polymarket, outcome, etc, in essence getting a fresh deposit
3) the more liquid prediction markets are, the more leverage we can offer our users. our goal is to grow the pie
WAGMI, 2026
@Lattica, in contrast, is fully aligned with users:
1) winning traders are safer for our pool
2) because we settle on other venues, we're not the counterparty. winners take from traders on polymarket, outcome, etc, in essence getting a fresh deposit
3) the more liquid prediction markets are, the more leverage we can offer our users. our goal is to grow the pie
WAGMI, 2026
Play long term games , users win = app wins
also @Lattica offering leveraged sports trades , much more +EV where they want users to win
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$1k to win $100k, but the world ends
Combos on Geopolitics just rolled out
$1K to win $100,533 if:
- US invades Iran
- China attacks Taiwan
- Putin is out of power
poly.market/combos
Welcome to the future of prediction markets
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it's always a pleasure to chat with people who think deeply about prediction markets, and @hardikthecoder definitely qualifies
🎙️Why 10x leverage on prediction markets actually matters.
Great conversation with @SteveFlanders22, Founder & CEO of @Lattica
Prediction markets did $60B+ in 2025 and now clear billions weekly yet almost all of it still runs at 1x. Capital sits locked in outcome tokens, idle and a:
→ Borrow against your prediction-market positions
→ Trade outcomes with up to 10x leverage
→ Supply USDC and earn from leverage demand no directional bet required
The thesis is simple: prediction markets have the volume, now they need the credit layer. Leverage turns a sitting position into working capital.
Full episode dropping soon 👇
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