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How would you rate the accuracy and practical usefulness of my long-range forecasts for Autumn 2025 and Winter 2026 so far?
(Rating Scale):
(5🌟) Excellent (Highly accurate & very useful)
(4🌟) Good (Mostly accurate & useful)
(3🌟) Moderate (Mixed performance)
(2🌟) Low accuracy (Limiteduseful / Missed expectations
Your feedback helps refine future outlooks and improve regional targeting.
Please also mention your country/region in the comments so I can prioritize areas of highest relevance and usability .
(Rating Scale):
(5🌟) Excellent (Highly accurate & very useful)
(4🌟) Good (Mostly accurate & useful)
(3🌟) Moderate (Mixed performance)
(2🌟) Low accuracy (Limiteduseful / Missed expectations
Your feedback helps refine future outlooks and improve regional targeting.
Please also mention your country/region in the comments so I can prioritize areas of highest relevance and usability .
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Serial content copiers like @gaurav_kochar are blocked and unwelcome on my account . If you use my posts, cite the original author.
@grok should easily detect and ban shameless copycats. Crediting the person who did the actual analysis costs literally nothing.
@grok should easily detect and ban shameless copycats. Crediting the person who did the actual analysis costs literally nothing.
EL NIÑO COULD GIVE WAY TO LA NIÑA BY LATE 2027! 🌊
A potentially consequential ENSO reversal is emerging in a new statistical outlook based on a 21-year analog composite and NOAA CORe data.
The forecast suggests the current El Niño may begin losing its grip after February 2027, ion towards La Niña in the second half of 2027.
Key projected developments:
• Nov 2026–Feb 2027: Persistent warm SST anomalies across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, gradually weakening.
• March–April 2027: El Niño begins to unravel as the Pacific Ocean's heat reservoir gets depleted.
• May–July 2027: A transition towards ENSO-neutral conditions, although atmospheric circulation could retain an El Niño imprint for several months.
• Mid-to-late 2027: Cold SST anomalies could expand eastward, potentially establishing a La Niña-like pattern.
The underlying mechanism is particularly important.
As accumulated ocean heat is discharged, subsurface cold anomalies can propagate eastward through oceanic Kelvin waves. Strengthening easterly trade winds could then accelerate Pacific cooling and reverse the Bjerknes feedback that sustains El Niño.
But there is a major caveat: the Spring Predictability Barrier.
The ocean may transition towards neutral conditions before the atmosphere fully responds. El Niño-related global circulation patterns could linger into July 2027.
Another intriguing aspect: the researcher's longer historical reconstruction identifies at least 14 potential Super El Niño events between 1642 and 1948, although these were not incorporated into the current 21-analog composite.
This is an interim statistical outlook, not a confirmed ENSO forecast. The transition timing remains uncertain.
For agricultural markets, the implications could be enormous. The question is not just how powerful this El Niño becomes, but what weather regime follows it.
The next ENSO transition could be just as consequential as the current El Niño.
\#ElNino #LaNina #ENSO #AgWx #AgTwitter
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🟥Energy Commodities Market Commentary: Q4–Q1 Outlook
Seasonal multivariate modeling points toward potential downside risk for crude oil and natural gas (#NatGas) prices heading into December, with values expected to decline toward their historical average—reflecting well-established annual variability in natural gas markets.
Looking ahead to January, the model projects a clear structural trend reversal, with prices picking up and remaining elevated for an extended period into the first quarter . The expected rise is substantive when compared to Nov-Dec Trajectory.
This forecast leverages a robust, multi-variable analytical model designed for medium-range energy predictions. Rigorous out-of-sample backtesting over the last 24 months confirms high directional and magnitude accuracy when comparing predicted versus observed prices across 4-to-6-month forecasting horizons.
#natgas #crudeoil @OilandEnergy
#Oil #EIA #Crude #OOTT
Seasonal multivariate modeling points toward potential downside risk for crude oil and natural gas (#NatGas) prices heading into December, with values expected to decline toward their historical average—reflecting well-established annual variability in natural gas markets.
Looking ahead to January, the model projects a clear structural trend reversal, with prices picking up and remaining elevated for an extended period into the first quarter . The expected rise is substantive when compared to Nov-Dec Trajectory.
This forecast leverages a robust, multi-variable analytical model designed for medium-range energy predictions. Rigorous out-of-sample backtesting over the last 24 months confirms high directional and magnitude accuracy when comparing predicted versus observed prices across 4-to-6-month forecasting horizons.
#natgas #crudeoil @OilandEnergy
#Oil #EIA #Crude #OOTT
....and above all, there has been a huge opportunity in EU #natgas, which probably is already over, yet I think we will get some more upside during the winter. Just open your eyes. Even Italy electricity is up +300% over the last 6 months.
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❄️🌨️Synoptic Snowfall Probability Forecast: Balkans, Anatolia & Northern Middle East (November 2026 – February 2027).
🇹🇷🇬🇷 🇮🇶🇸🇾
Interpretation note: Positive anomalies (red-shaded areas) indicate an increased probability of snowfall events relative to climatology. They do not reprccumulation depths.
1. November 2026 – Early-Season Snowfall Signals
Affected regions: Positive anomalies are initially concentrated across western and southwestern Anatolia, the eastern Turkish highlands, and localized areas of the northern Balkans and Greece.
Highest-probability zones:
Türkiye: The interior Aegean, southwestern Anatolia (with normalized anomalies reaching approximately +3σ to +4σ), and elevated terrain across eastern Türkiye.
Greece & Balkans: Mountainous areas along the northern Greek borders and northern Balkan corridors.
Northern Syria & Iraq: Little to no significant positive signal, with probabilities remaining near climatological levels during this early-season phase.
2. December 2026 – Expanding Regional Activity
Affected regions: The snowfall probability envelope shifts toward western and central Greece, expands across central and southeastern Anatolia, and begins extending into northern Syria and Iraq.
Highest-probability zones:
Greece: Western highlands, particularly the Pindus mountain range.
Türkiye: The Central Anatolian Plateau and southeastern Anatolia.
Northern Syria & Iraq: Increasing probabilities emerge across northern Syria, including elevated terrain, and along the Zagros mountain ranges of northern and northeastern Iraq.
3. January 2027 – Peak Winter Signal
Affected regions: January exhibits the broadest geographical coverage and strongest snowfall probability anomalies of the forecast period. The projected synoptic configuration favors deeper southward and southeastward intrusions of polar and continental air masses, potentially supporting widespread snowfall across Greece, Türkiye, the Levant, and Mesopotamia, subject to sufficient moisture availability and favorable local atmospheric conditions.
Highest-probability zones:
Greece: Central and northern mountainous regions.
Türkiye: Eastern and southeastern Anatolian mountain ranges.
Northern Syria & Iraq – Maximum Seasonal Risk: Pronounced anomaly cores exceeding +4σ extend across northern and eastern Syria and into substantial parts of northern and central Iraq. This indicates an unusually elevated probability of synoptic-scale cold-air intrusions, potentially interacting with favorable moisture transport pathways to produce significant snowfall episodes, particularly over elevated terrain.
4. February 2027 – Gradual Retreat of the Snowfall Signal
Affected regions: The primary anomaly envelope gradually contracts northward toward the northern Mediterranean, the Balkan Peninsula, and the far eastern Anatolian highlands.
Highest-probability zones:
Greece & Balkans: Western and northern Greek mountain corridors retain relatively strong late-winter snowfall signals.
Türkiye: Elevated probabilities persist mainly across the far eastern, high-altitude provinces near the border regions.
Northern Syria & Iraq: Probabilities gradually retreat toward climatological levels, with residual signals becoming increasingly confined to elevated areas along the northern border regions.
Overall seasonal outlook: The forecast suggests a progressive southward and southeastward expansion of snowfall potential from November into January, followed by a gradual retreat during February. January 2027 stands out as the period of greatest geographical coverage and strongest probability anomalies, particularly across eastern Türkiye, northern Syria, and Iraq.
These are probabilistic, anomaly-based synoptic outlooks rather than deterministic snowfall forecasts. The actual occurrence, intensity, and amounts & geographical distribution of snowfall will depend on the eventual interaction between cold-air intrusions, atmospheric moisture availability, storm tracks, and local orographic conditions.
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer , Courtesy weather maps by @pyreweather & @SteelCityCoach
app.pyreweather.org/map/
🇹🇷🇬🇷 🇮🇶🇸🇾
Interpretation note: Positive anomalies (red-shaded areas) indicate an increased probability of snowfall events relative to climatology. They do not reprccumulation depths.
1. November 2026 – Early-Season Snowfall Signals
Affected regions: Positive anomalies are initially concentrated across western and southwestern Anatolia, the eastern Turkish highlands, and localized areas of the northern Balkans and Greece.
Highest-probability zones:
Türkiye: The interior Aegean, southwestern Anatolia (with normalized anomalies reaching approximately +3σ to +4σ), and elevated terrain across eastern Türkiye.
Greece & Balkans: Mountainous areas along the northern Greek borders and northern Balkan corridors.
Northern Syria & Iraq: Little to no significant positive signal, with probabilities remaining near climatological levels during this early-season phase.
2. December 2026 – Expanding Regional Activity
Affected regions: The snowfall probability envelope shifts toward western and central Greece, expands across central and southeastern Anatolia, and begins extending into northern Syria and Iraq.
Highest-probability zones:
Greece: Western highlands, particularly the Pindus mountain range.
Türkiye: The Central Anatolian Plateau and southeastern Anatolia.
Northern Syria & Iraq: Increasing probabilities emerge across northern Syria, including elevated terrain, and along the Zagros mountain ranges of northern and northeastern Iraq.
3. January 2027 – Peak Winter Signal
Affected regions: January exhibits the broadest geographical coverage and strongest snowfall probability anomalies of the forecast period. The projected synoptic configuration favors deeper southward and southeastward intrusions of polar and continental air masses, potentially supporting widespread snowfall across Greece, Türkiye, the Levant, and Mesopotamia, subject to sufficient moisture availability and favorable local atmospheric conditions.
Highest-probability zones:
Greece: Central and northern mountainous regions.
Türkiye: Eastern and southeastern Anatolian mountain ranges.
Northern Syria & Iraq – Maximum Seasonal Risk: Pronounced anomaly cores exceeding +4σ extend across northern and eastern Syria and into substantial parts of northern and central Iraq. This indicates an unusually elevated probability of synoptic-scale cold-air intrusions, potentially interacting with favorable moisture transport pathways to produce significant snowfall episodes, particularly over elevated terrain.
4. February 2027 – Gradual Retreat of the Snowfall Signal
Affected regions: The primary anomaly envelope gradually contracts northward toward the northern Mediterranean, the Balkan Peninsula, and the far eastern Anatolian highlands.
Highest-probability zones:
Greece & Balkans: Western and northern Greek mountain corridors retain relatively strong late-winter snowfall signals.
Türkiye: Elevated probabilities persist mainly across the far eastern, high-altitude provinces near the border regions.
Northern Syria & Iraq: Probabilities gradually retreat toward climatological levels, with residual signals becoming increasingly confined to elevated areas along the northern border regions.
Overall seasonal outlook: The forecast suggests a progressive southward and southeastward expansion of snowfall potential from November into January, followed by a gradual retreat during February. January 2027 stands out as the period of greatest geographical coverage and strongest probability anomalies, particularly across eastern Türkiye, northern Syria, and Iraq.
These are probabilistic, anomaly-based synoptic outlooks rather than deterministic snowfall forecasts. The actual occurrence, intensity, and amounts & geographical distribution of snowfall will depend on the eventual interaction between cold-air intrusions, atmospheric moisture availability, storm tracks, and local orographic conditions.
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer , Courtesy weather maps by @pyreweather & @SteelCityCoach
app.pyreweather.org/map/
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🌊 ENSO 2026–2027 Outlook: A Possible Transition from El Niño to La Niña
Based on a 21-year analog composite, incorporating some of the strongest historical El Niño events since 1950, using the @pyreweather interface and NOAA CORe data, our latest ANN-based tropical Pacific SST ssic post-peak ENSO transition.
📊 Key Takeaways (November 2026 – October 2027)
1️⃣ November 2026: Persistent warm SST anomalies across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with mature El Niño conditions. Gradually fading out through February 2027.
2️⃣ Spring 2027 Transition: A rapid weakening of the warm SST anomalies and a gradual breakdown of the El Niño signal are projected after April 2027.
3️⃣ Second Half of 2027: A developing La Niña-like cold SST pattern may emerge by mid-to-late 2027.
🚦Note
The post-February appearance of cold anomalies in the western pacific equatorial region marks the onset of the discharge phase of the ENSO cycle, serving as the structural trigger for El Niño's decay and the subsequent transition toward La Niña. During mature El Niño events, weakened trade winds allow upper-ocean heat to accumulate and discharge poleward; once this heat content is depleted, cold anomalies emerge in the west and propagate eastward as upwelling oceanic Kelvin waves along the thermocline. As these subsurface cold waters lift toward the surface across the central and eastern Pacific, they erode the remaining warm surface pool while driving atmospheric convection back toward the Maritime Continent. This atmospheric shift reinstates and strengthens low-level easterly trade winds—reversing the Bjerknes feedback mechanism—which accelerates surface cooling and sets the stage for a La Niña imprint to emerge by mid-to-late 2027.
🔬 Latent Structural Evolution & Atmospheric Lag
Although tropical Pacific SST anomalies are projected to shift toward neutral or negative territory by mid-2027, the atmospheric response may not change at the same pace. Atmospheric coupling parameters and associated teleconnections can retain an El Niño imprint for several months, potentially extending into July 2027, before the global circulation gradually adjusts to a developing La Niña background state.
The Spring Predictability Barrier remains an important source of uncertainty in ENSO forecasting. The transition across spring can make it difficult to determine the eventual ENSO state with confidence. This animation illustrates the projected evolution of tropical Pacific SST anomalies across the analog composite, but the spring barrier may affect the reliability of the transition timing. Consequently, the lingering atmospheric influence of El Niño could persist longer than the SST animation alone suggests.
Although older super-El Niño seasons are represented in my climatic reconstruction, which extends back to 1645, incorporating them into the current analysis was not feasible because the present model relies on modern datasets with more consistent observational coverage.
However, using multivariable climatic indicators and broader structural analog contexts, I have identified at least 14 potential super-El Niño events before 1948 back to 1642. These candidates are part of the longer historical reconstruction, although they were not included in the current 21-analog composite.
📈 Baseline: CORe monthly climatology, 1991–2020
Data: NCEP CORe Reanalysis / Mercator.
This is an interim statistical outlook and remains subject to revision later in winter 2026 as additional observations and model data become available.
Statistical Structural Model by Mr. M @Statisticizer
#ENSO #ClimateForecast #ElNino #LaNina #Weather #WxTwitter #PyReWeather
Based on a 21-year analog composite, incorporating some of the strongest historical El Niño events since 1950, using the @pyreweather interface and NOAA CORe data, our latest ANN-based tropical Pacific SST ssic post-peak ENSO transition.
📊 Key Takeaways (November 2026 – October 2027)
1️⃣ November 2026: Persistent warm SST anomalies across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with mature El Niño conditions. Gradually fading out through February 2027.
2️⃣ Spring 2027 Transition: A rapid weakening of the warm SST anomalies and a gradual breakdown of the El Niño signal are projected after April 2027.
3️⃣ Second Half of 2027: A developing La Niña-like cold SST pattern may emerge by mid-to-late 2027.
🚦Note
The post-February appearance of cold anomalies in the western pacific equatorial region marks the onset of the discharge phase of the ENSO cycle, serving as the structural trigger for El Niño's decay and the subsequent transition toward La Niña. During mature El Niño events, weakened trade winds allow upper-ocean heat to accumulate and discharge poleward; once this heat content is depleted, cold anomalies emerge in the west and propagate eastward as upwelling oceanic Kelvin waves along the thermocline. As these subsurface cold waters lift toward the surface across the central and eastern Pacific, they erode the remaining warm surface pool while driving atmospheric convection back toward the Maritime Continent. This atmospheric shift reinstates and strengthens low-level easterly trade winds—reversing the Bjerknes feedback mechanism—which accelerates surface cooling and sets the stage for a La Niña imprint to emerge by mid-to-late 2027.
🔬 Latent Structural Evolution & Atmospheric Lag
Although tropical Pacific SST anomalies are projected to shift toward neutral or negative territory by mid-2027, the atmospheric response may not change at the same pace. Atmospheric coupling parameters and associated teleconnections can retain an El Niño imprint for several months, potentially extending into July 2027, before the global circulation gradually adjusts to a developing La Niña background state.
The Spring Predictability Barrier remains an important source of uncertainty in ENSO forecasting. The transition across spring can make it difficult to determine the eventual ENSO state with confidence. This animation illustrates the projected evolution of tropical Pacific SST anomalies across the analog composite, but the spring barrier may affect the reliability of the transition timing. Consequently, the lingering atmospheric influence of El Niño could persist longer than the SST animation alone suggests.
Although older super-El Niño seasons are represented in my climatic reconstruction, which extends back to 1645, incorporating them into the current analysis was not feasible because the present model relies on modern datasets with more consistent observational coverage.
However, using multivariable climatic indicators and broader structural analog contexts, I have identified at least 14 potential super-El Niño events before 1948 back to 1642. These candidates are part of the longer historical reconstruction, although they were not included in the current 21-analog composite.
📈 Baseline: CORe monthly climatology, 1991–2020
Data: NCEP CORe Reanalysis / Mercator.
This is an interim statistical outlook and remains subject to revision later in winter 2026 as additional observations and model data become available.
Statistical Structural Model by Mr. M @Statisticizer
#ENSO #ClimateForecast #ElNino #LaNina #Weather #WxTwitter #PyReWeather
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#حالة_مطرية واسعة النطاق محتملة اواخر الشهر الجاري,
تشير القراءات والتحليلات الأولية إلى احتمالية تشكّل حالة مطرية غزيرة خلال الثلث الأخير من شهر نوفمبر الجاري، قد تشمل مساحات واسعة من أراضي الجزيرة العربية، وذلك خلال الفترة التقريبية الممتدة من 22 إلى 30 نوفمبر.
المناطق والأرجواني 🟦🟪على الخريطة تشير إلى مسارات وتجمعات محتملة لأنهر الرطوبة، بما يعزز فرص نشوء حالات مطرية واسعة النطاق، قد تكون غزيرة في بعض المناطق.
لا يوجد حاليا مخرجات رقمية من نماذج التوقع بالطقس التجارية المعروفة- GFS /ECWMF تشير لهذه الحالة او تنفيها بالوقت الراهن .
تم بناء هذه التوقعات باستخدام مجموعة من الأساليب والتطبيقات المتقدمة للذكاء الاصطناعي، إلى جانب النمذجة والتحليل الإحصائي والبرمجة الحاسوبية .
ونؤكد أن هذه التوقعات تظل احتمالية وقابلة للتحديث وفقاً لتطور المعطيات الجوية، والأمر أولاً وآخراً بيد الله، مرسل الرياح ومجري السحاب، سبحانه وتعالى.
والله أعلى وأعلم.
مع خالص التحية،
كبير الإحصائيين و المبرمجين
موقع الهدهد لتحليل البحوث والخدمات الإحصائية
أبو عبدالرحمن الخطيب Mr. M @Statisticizer
تشير القراءات والتحليلات الأولية إلى احتمالية تشكّل حالة مطرية غزيرة خلال الثلث الأخير من شهر نوفمبر الجاري، قد تشمل مساحات واسعة من أراضي الجزيرة العربية، وذلك خلال الفترة التقريبية الممتدة من 22 إلى 30 نوفمبر.
المناطق والأرجواني 🟦🟪على الخريطة تشير إلى مسارات وتجمعات محتملة لأنهر الرطوبة، بما يعزز فرص نشوء حالات مطرية واسعة النطاق، قد تكون غزيرة في بعض المناطق.
لا يوجد حاليا مخرجات رقمية من نماذج التوقع بالطقس التجارية المعروفة- GFS /ECWMF تشير لهذه الحالة او تنفيها بالوقت الراهن .
تم بناء هذه التوقعات باستخدام مجموعة من الأساليب والتطبيقات المتقدمة للذكاء الاصطناعي، إلى جانب النمذجة والتحليل الإحصائي والبرمجة الحاسوبية .
ونؤكد أن هذه التوقعات تظل احتمالية وقابلة للتحديث وفقاً لتطور المعطيات الجوية، والأمر أولاً وآخراً بيد الله، مرسل الرياح ومجري السحاب، سبحانه وتعالى.
والله أعلى وأعلم.
مع خالص التحية،
كبير الإحصائيين و المبرمجين
موقع الهدهد لتحليل البحوث والخدمات الإحصائية
أبو عبدالرحمن الخطيب Mr. M @Statisticizer
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قرب نهايات شهر نوفمبر الحالي . طريقة التفسير نفسها , اللونين الازرق و الارجواني تشي بفرص الامطار و اللون الارجواني اعلى . و الله اعلم .
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🚦إعادة نشر:
بدأت النماذج الرقمية التشغيلية تتوافق مع هذا التوقع البعيد منذ نحو شهر، وهو ما يعزز أهمية متابعة تطور النمط الجوي.
🟢 النماذج الرقمية تتوافق حاليا على فترة خصبة لمنطقة الشرق الاوسط عبر الايام القادمة باذن الله .
🙏أرجو التكرم بالاستعانة بـ @Grok للبحث في النشرات ورة على حسابي، والمتعلقة بمناطق مختلفة من العالم العربي. عبر سؤاله مثلا ان يجد مثلا النشرات التي تخص الشرق الاوسط او الخليج العربي او اسم البلد باللغة العربية و تخصيص الكلمات المفتاحية مثل الامطار او التوقعات الاحصائية يساعد بالوصول للنشرات بيسر .
بصراحة، من الصعب عليّ الرد بشكل شخصي على كل استفسار، خصوصاً مع تكرار الأسئلة المتعلقة بالمنطقة نفسها . والسبب أنني أنشر عدداً كبيراً من التحديثات والنشرات كل اسبوع، ما يجعل المنشورات القديمة تتراجع ويصعب الوصول إليها يسهولة مع مرور الوقت في صفحة حسابي .
ورغم أنني أبدو متواجد باستمرار على تويتر، الصدق وجودي الفعلي لا يتجاوز نصف ساعة تقريباً خلال النهار، ونصف ساعة أخرى في المساء-نظرا لكثرة المشاغل.
بالامكان ايضا تفعيل زر التنبيهات لكل نشراتي من المتابعة بحيث يصلك الاشعار بكل شيء انشره سواء بالانجليزية او العربية . بالعادة لا انشر اي شيء سوى محتوى علمي و الطقس. مالي بالسياسة و لا الاخبار 🙃.
🙏
اسعد الله اوقاتكم ,
بدأت النماذج الرقمية التشغيلية تتوافق مع هذا التوقع البعيد منذ نحو شهر، وهو ما يعزز أهمية متابعة تطور النمط الجوي.
🟢 النماذج الرقمية تتوافق حاليا على فترة خصبة لمنطقة الشرق الاوسط عبر الايام القادمة باذن الله .
🙏أرجو التكرم بالاستعانة بـ @Grok للبحث في النشرات ورة على حسابي، والمتعلقة بمناطق مختلفة من العالم العربي. عبر سؤاله مثلا ان يجد مثلا النشرات التي تخص الشرق الاوسط او الخليج العربي او اسم البلد باللغة العربية و تخصيص الكلمات المفتاحية مثل الامطار او التوقعات الاحصائية يساعد بالوصول للنشرات بيسر .
بصراحة، من الصعب عليّ الرد بشكل شخصي على كل استفسار، خصوصاً مع تكرار الأسئلة المتعلقة بالمنطقة نفسها . والسبب أنني أنشر عدداً كبيراً من التحديثات والنشرات كل اسبوع، ما يجعل المنشورات القديمة تتراجع ويصعب الوصول إليها يسهولة مع مرور الوقت في صفحة حسابي .
ورغم أنني أبدو متواجد باستمرار على تويتر، الصدق وجودي الفعلي لا يتجاوز نصف ساعة تقريباً خلال النهار، ونصف ساعة أخرى في المساء-نظرا لكثرة المشاغل.
بالامكان ايضا تفعيل زر التنبيهات لكل نشراتي من المتابعة بحيث يصلك الاشعار بكل شيء انشره سواء بالانجليزية او العربية . بالعادة لا انشر اي شيء سوى محتوى علمي و الطقس. مالي بالسياسة و لا الاخبار 🙃.
🙏
اسعد الله اوقاتكم ,
🚨🌧️ توقعات مطرية لأواخر #أكتوبر ومطلع #نوفمبر
تشير المخرجات الإحصائية والاحتمالية الحالية إلى احتمالية تشكّل عدة حالات مطرية فوق شبه الجزيرة العربية خلال أواخر أكتوبر ومطلع نوفمبر القادم، مع تركّز نسبي متوقع على مناطق وسط وشمال وشمال شرق الجزيرة العربية، بما في ذلك أجزاء من والـعــراق، إضافة إلى السواحل الشرقية للخليج العربي ضمن الأراضي الإيرانية.
الخرائط المرفقة تُظهر الاحتمالات التراكمية للهطول المطري المتوقع، وفقًا للمخرجات الاحتمالية المبنية على أساليب إحصائية وتفاضلية متعددة. ولذلك، فإن هذه النشرة تمثل ترجيحًا احتماليًا وليست توقعًا حتميًا.
🔵🟣 في الخرائط المرفقة , تشير الألوان الأزرق والأرجواني إلى مناطق ومسارات محتملة لتدفق الرطوبة، وما يرتبط بها من فرص للهطول المطري بأمر اللـه.
أما الأزرق الداكن والفوشي، فيشيران إلى مناطق ترتفع فيها احتمالات التراكمات المطرية، بإذن الله ومشيئته.
ومن المتوقع، وفق الإشارة الحالية، أن تمتد فترة النشاط المطري تقريبًا من 25 أكتوبر وحتى 10 نوفمبر، مع بداية محتملة على شكل حالات من عدم الاستقرار خلال الأسبوع الأخير من أكتوبر فوق أجزاء من شمال غرب السعودية وبلاد الشام والعراق.
ومع تطور الحالة، قد ينشط تدفق رطوبي أفرواسيوي، يحمل كميات إضافية من الرطوبة باتجاه أجزاء من وسط و غرب و جنوب غرب الجزيرة العربية مقترنة بمد رطوبة اخر من بحر العرب ، مما قد يدعم تشكّل السحب الركامية وفرص الهطولات على مناطق من وسط وشرق وشمال الجزيرة العربية، كما يظهر في الخرائط المرفقة تشق تلك الامطار صحاري وسط الجزيرة العربية على شكل حزام مطري متصل يمتد لغاية سلسلة جبال زاغروس و طوروس .
📌 أضفت خرائط إضافية في التعليقات لمزيد من التفاصيل المكانية والزمنية تغطي فترة اول ثلث من نوفمبر المقبل و هي ايضا احتمالية .
هذه قراءة احتمالية مبنية على التحليل الإحصائي للمخرجات الحالية، وقد تتغير التفاصيل مع اقتراب الفترة المستهدفة وتحديث البيانات و ان شاء الله تكون موفقة كاحتمالات .
والله سبحانه أعلى وأعلم وأحكم.
مع التحية،
محمد الخطيب
إعداد التحليل الإحصائي والاحتمالي
موقع الهدهد لخدمات البحوث والتحليل الإحصائي hodhodata.com
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