checking out a few voter guides, trying to make my mind up on who to vote for to be the mayor of LA...
6
0
25
"games changed"
well... duh.
The game has changed every 18 months for the past 16 years.
There is a hype cycle that you can see repeat time and time again:
Business is hard so people go under.
But every year new people start new businesses.
Those brands start small, so they is sexy, so they attract attention.
They share whats working, new case studies come out, they do podcasts.
Now there is a new playbook.
everyone follows it, exhausts it, and in a year business gets hard again and people go under.
Today its trybe. or ai editing.
Literally a year ago it was tik tok shop.
Before that it was MTA or incrementaility or influencer or applovin or connected TV or buy now pay later or subsciption gummies or whatever
There is always new tools.
There are always new brands.
There will always be new services and ad channels and hacks and tricks.
The lesson is:
whatever you are doing now will stop working at some point.
you will need to learn something new just to stay break even.
if you want to grow, you need to scale your skills faster than the market changes.
everything is fleeting.
whatever you think is the answer will change.
because the world changes.
people change. you need to change too.
well... duh.
The game has changed every 18 months for the past 16 years.
There is a hype cycle that you can see repeat time and time again:
Business is hard so people go under.
But every year new people start new businesses.
Those brands start small, so they is sexy, so they attract attention.
They share whats working, new case studies come out, they do podcasts.
Now there is a new playbook.
everyone follows it, exhausts it, and in a year business gets hard again and people go under.
Today its trybe. or ai editing.
Literally a year ago it was tik tok shop.
Before that it was MTA or incrementaility or influencer or applovin or connected TV or buy now pay later or subsciption gummies or whatever
There is always new tools.
There are always new brands.
There will always be new services and ad channels and hacks and tricks.
The lesson is:
whatever you are doing now will stop working at some point.
you will need to learn something new just to stay break even.
if you want to grow, you need to scale your skills faster than the market changes.
everything is fleeting.
whatever you think is the answer will change.
because the world changes.
people change. you need to change too.
33
7
162
The US capital markets are a thing of wonder.
Despite everything going on in the world today, the SP500 is still above historic average returns.
China on the other hand...
Despite everything going on in the world today, the SP500 is still above historic average returns.
China on the other hand...
5
1
33
"man meta ads performance has been shit all month!"
11 billion dollars spent on midterms.
probably undercounted, more like 15 billion.
and unlike the superbowl, these are the most negative ads ever
"EVERYTHING IS EXPENSIVE AND PEOPLE ARE COMING TO KILL YOU"
gee, that probably on rates.
Im up 70% this month.
if you arent, just stay steady.
you can not stop the american consumer.
they are ready to make you rich this black friday.
JUST STAY FOCUSED
11 billion dollars spent on midterms.
probably undercounted, more like 15 billion.
and unlike the superbowl, these are the most negative ads ever
"EVERYTHING IS EXPENSIVE AND PEOPLE ARE COMING TO KILL YOU"
gee, that probably on rates.
Im up 70% this month.
if you arent, just stay steady.
you can not stop the american consumer.
they are ready to make you rich this black friday.
JUST STAY FOCUSED
39
15
309
You can fix america in under 4 years:
Year 1-
Raise taxes 10%.
Cut spending 10%.
This will lead to a budget surplus.
Pay down a small amount of debt.
Year 2-
Stay the course.
Do not buckle, start new wars, start spending.
Pay down another small chunk of debt.
Year 3-
The serious.
Interest rates will fall to zero. literally as low as we have ever seen.
With it, mortgage rates go down to covid levels.
Economy grows 5%+.
Year 4-
Refinance all outstanding debt.
Bumps up rates, but still well under what spot is now.
By the end of the 4 years, the US economy is growing faster than anyone else on earth.
Borrowing costs are at all time lows.
The extra tax revenue more than covers the short term cuts we had to do.
everyone is richer, we secure another 250 years of the american empire, there is more money for everything.
At any point, any political party can do this.
but its like cooking a meal vs doordashing taco bell.
Its harder to do, so no one does it.
Year 1-
Raise taxes 10%.
Cut spending 10%.
This will lead to a budget surplus.
Pay down a small amount of debt.
Year 2-
Stay the course.
Do not buckle, start new wars, start spending.
Pay down another small chunk of debt.
Year 3-
The serious.
Interest rates will fall to zero. literally as low as we have ever seen.
With it, mortgage rates go down to covid levels.
Economy grows 5%+.
Year 4-
Refinance all outstanding debt.
Bumps up rates, but still well under what spot is now.
By the end of the 4 years, the US economy is growing faster than anyone else on earth.
Borrowing costs are at all time lows.
The extra tax revenue more than covers the short term cuts we had to do.
everyone is richer, we secure another 250 years of the american empire, there is more money for everything.
At any point, any political party can do this.
but its like cooking a meal vs doordashing taco bell.
Its harder to do, so no one does it.
630
42
950
@lazy_mode_ @varrock this chart says it was a gradual process and that the affordable care act did nothing, either way
1
0
1
If your goal is communism in America- brother we are already there
The USA spends more on public programs (health care, social security, SNAP) as a % of GDP than Communist China.
We will spend 38% this year.
The same as Venezuela under Chavez.
We are already spending like communist in America.
The USA spends more on public programs (health care, social security, SNAP) as a % of GDP than Communist China.
We will spend 38% this year.
The same as Venezuela under Chavez.
We are already spending like communist in America.
David Friedberg reveals France's public spending is 57% of GDP: greater than that of communist countries
"This chart is a measure of public spending as a percent of GDP; Rand Group Research published it. And you can see the comparison of France's public spending as a percent of spending as a percent of GDP of major communist nations, Soviet Union during, communist Romania, Venezuela under Chavez, and then communist China."
"It certainly been a socialist state, right? That's my point. I think this is such a precious lesson for the West to look at. We all think that there's some political problem with Macron or whoever it was."
"The more the government spends, the worse the conditions get for its people, not the opposite. And then the people riot and revolt and say that the government's not spending enough and the government needs to be doing more."
"Take a guess where the US is today. Federal government spending is $7.4 trillion, state and local government spending is $4.6 trillion. You add those two together, it's $12 trillion out of a $33 trillion GDP. US public spending is roughly 36% of GDP. France today is the same as the US, it's about 120% debt to GDP."
"France today is operating its national government spending deficit is 5.4% of GDP. The US is actually 6.2% of GDP. France is I think probably the first to go because they're only growing their economy at half a percent while the US is growing 2.3%."
"So we're still kind of hanging on because we have some degree of economic growth that's allowing us to kind of hold things together."
"But I would argue that we are facing the same sort of fiscal cliff that leads to this extraordinary social unrest as France, all the economic measures are aligned, we're at the same rate, we're at the same set of problems."
22
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222
the bull case:
Look, I am a known optimist.
So it wont surprise everyone to hear I think things are going to be awesome.
Here is my perspective:
if you are still in business today, you survived at least 6 great crises in the past 6 years.
you survived covid, you survived 2 ections; you survived a WORSE gas crisis because of the ukraine conflict; you survived inflation; you survived interest rates rising faster than they ever have, you survived a banking crisis (SVB)
if you are in business today, you are resilient
are things great today?
depends where you look.
housing hasnt imploded.
unemployment is steady.
the largest, most important companies in human history are still growing and shipping new products
there is weakness for sure-
gas prices are the obvious one.
They are the front line on a vibes-secion.
the reason gas prices matter so much is because it is a commodity with no substitute good.
if banana prices go up, you might eat more oranges.
But you have to drive to work every day.
if gas is $3 or $8 a gallon, doesnt matter, you have to drive.
and I wish gas prices were lower.
it is the most direct way to put more spending power back into the average amercians hands.
but look at the chart-
inflation-adjusted, it is a dollar cheaper than the ukraine war peak, and $2 cheaper than in 2008
the economy is more diversified, directly because of the ukraine war, so even with the Iran war dragging on, the impact has been less
I'll tell you, I see the strength in my sales data.
this is NOTHING like 2022.
2022 had runaway inflation.
a real energy shock.
no great new products or investments happening.
in contrast-
people are spending.
people are employed.
stock market is at all time highs (I think this plays a factor)
the reality-
it is an election year.
both sides are in full-on doomer mode, trying to push a narrative.
from my seat, as the ceo of a mid-size discretionary goods company:
It is the greatest time to be building all decade.
Look, I am a known optimist.
So it wont surprise everyone to hear I think things are going to be awesome.
Here is my perspective:
if you are still in business today, you survived at least 6 great crises in the past 6 years.
you survived covid, you survived 2 ections; you survived a WORSE gas crisis because of the ukraine conflict; you survived inflation; you survived interest rates rising faster than they ever have, you survived a banking crisis (SVB)
if you are in business today, you are resilient
are things great today?
depends where you look.
housing hasnt imploded.
unemployment is steady.
the largest, most important companies in human history are still growing and shipping new products
there is weakness for sure-
gas prices are the obvious one.
They are the front line on a vibes-secion.
the reason gas prices matter so much is because it is a commodity with no substitute good.
if banana prices go up, you might eat more oranges.
But you have to drive to work every day.
if gas is $3 or $8 a gallon, doesnt matter, you have to drive.
and I wish gas prices were lower.
it is the most direct way to put more spending power back into the average amercians hands.
but look at the chart-
inflation-adjusted, it is a dollar cheaper than the ukraine war peak, and $2 cheaper than in 2008
the economy is more diversified, directly because of the ukraine war, so even with the Iran war dragging on, the impact has been less
I'll tell you, I see the strength in my sales data.
this is NOTHING like 2022.
2022 had runaway inflation.
a real energy shock.
no great new products or investments happening.
in contrast-
people are spending.
people are employed.
stock market is at all time highs (I think this plays a factor)
the reality-
it is an election year.
both sides are in full-on doomer mode, trying to push a narrative.
from my seat, as the ceo of a mid-size discretionary goods company:
It is the greatest time to be building all decade.
I really believe economically we are cooked right now.
The warning signs are everywhere. Gas prices + inflation on food / energy / water / etc.
Disposable income continues to take a hit.
This really is top of mind for me heading into BFCM. Thinking of ways in which to better market, better show value to the consumer.
This means better, more focused ads that drive the user to want to buy with the money they got. That means hitting customers HARD now to add us as their MUST gift for the holidays.
33
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204
There is just no way things don’t work out.
I’ve never seen a future so bright.
All doom is fake.
Things are amazing and only getting better.
I’ve never seen more people winning, in every conceivable way possible.
Losing shouldn’t even enter your conscious
I’ve never seen a future so bright.
All doom is fake.
Things are amazing and only getting better.
I’ve never seen more people winning, in every conceivable way possible.
Losing shouldn’t even enter your conscious
10
13
241
"what do I need to know to get started with UGC, creators, and tik tok shop- a primer"
full video here
link to glossary and doc below
(powered by hq of course)
full video here
link to glossary and doc below
(powered by hq of course)
"its literally from trybe. I got it from sideshift. dudes it on euka. I use creatify with reacher to social snowball my refunnnel"
wtf is everyone talking about
nothing makes me feel more unc than tik tok shop
why are there so many agencies
and discord groups and calls
and seem to do the same thing...
so I built a primer
its on youtube
we are doing 6 figs a month, in a category NO ONE thought could work. at a price point no one thought would work.
worth watching
21
5
131
"its literally from trybe. I got it from sideshift. dudes it on euka. I use creatify with reacher to social snowball my refunnnel"
wtf is everyone talking about
nothing makes me feel more unc than tik tok shop
why are there so many agencies
and discord groups and calls
and seem to do the same thing...
so I built a primer
its on youtube
we are doing 6 figs a month, in a category NO ONE thought could work. at a price point no one thought would work.
worth watching
wtf is everyone talking about
nothing makes me feel more unc than tik tok shop
why are there so many agencies
and discord groups and calls
and seem to do the same thing...
so I built a primer
its on youtube
we are doing 6 figs a month, in a category NO ONE thought could work. at a price point no one thought would work.
worth watching
29
4
190
@davidsven Bro what the hell are you doing while driving.
I think your car might be fucked up.
I’m 94% self driving, zero strikes
I think your car might be fucked up.
I’m 94% self driving, zero strikes
4
0
11
How I evaluate AI models:
I think ai models have 6 main attributes that matter right now
- speed
- cost
- intelligence
- reasoning
- persitance
- orchestration
think about it like a video game skill tree.
each model has X number of points, and they use them in different ways
and cheap enough to use- that makes it practical
A model has to have raw intelligence, but it also has to be able to think through complex problems. Not just think it has big brained it.
and it has to be able to solve large, hard, problems. and now there is a new angle- manage a bunch of agents as THEY solve the hard problems
Grok is the best orchestrator right now, but it isn't smart enough to solve every problem.
Astra is the best all around model.
Fast, smart, great at reasoning.
EXCEPT it is expensive as hell to run.
Opus 5.5 is the go to right now.
VERY persistent. Smart enough.
And I think they are making it artificially cheap.
I think any models can be evaluated on this for overall "usability"
you see these big benchmark reports and they just dont matter to me. I am not doing groundbreaking bio.
Im trying to do a spreadsheet faster.
Open-source models can win on speed and cost, but they are really just too far behind on reasoning, persistence, and orchestration.
Everything is fast enough.
everything can be ran cheaper.
everything is plenty smart.
the current hard one to nail is the execution buckets, while not costing me $19,000 a month
I think ai models have 6 main attributes that matter right now
- speed
- cost
- intelligence
- reasoning
- persitance
- orchestration
think about it like a video game skill tree.
each model has X number of points, and they use them in different ways
and cheap enough to use- that makes it practical
A model has to have raw intelligence, but it also has to be able to think through complex problems. Not just think it has big brained it.
and it has to be able to solve large, hard, problems. and now there is a new angle- manage a bunch of agents as THEY solve the hard problems
Grok is the best orchestrator right now, but it isn't smart enough to solve every problem.
Astra is the best all around model.
Fast, smart, great at reasoning.
EXCEPT it is expensive as hell to run.
Opus 5.5 is the go to right now.
VERY persistent. Smart enough.
And I think they are making it artificially cheap.
I think any models can be evaluated on this for overall "usability"
you see these big benchmark reports and they just dont matter to me. I am not doing groundbreaking bio.
Im trying to do a spreadsheet faster.
Open-source models can win on speed and cost, but they are really just too far behind on reasoning, persistence, and orchestration.
Everything is fast enough.
everything can be ran cheaper.
everything is plenty smart.
the current hard one to nail is the execution buckets, while not costing me $19,000 a month
12
1
37
I think we are at peak pokemon cards
this brand is literally taking graded cards as currency
this brand is literally taking graded cards as currency
19
0
138
How agents will save you money:
I use instacart. its crazy expensive.
this is a weeks worth of household essentials, basically $500 with tip.
I would never think to compare these prices to other delivery platforms, or even other stores on instacart
your agent will just do it.
I use instacart. its crazy expensive.
this is a weeks worth of household essentials, basically $500 with tip.
I would never think to compare these prices to other delivery platforms, or even other stores on instacart
your agent will just do it.
27
2
98
skip this promo-
it sucks, its confusing, its too much work
it sucks, its confusing, its too much work
52 DAYS TO SAVE YOUR WHOLE BUSINESS:
Black friday is 52 days away.
We did an operators event where we talked about promo and discount strategies
here are some expanded thoughts and ideas to HELP YOU MAKE MONEY
serious ecom OPERATORS make it a must watch
(and subscribe laque)
13
1
53
@ItsDeanBlundell Quebec was less than 50,000 votes away from leaving in 1995.
The stated goal of the main political party in Quebec is to leave.
Are you dumb or just pretending to be mad for internet points?
The stated goal of the main political party in Quebec is to leave.
Are you dumb or just pretending to be mad for internet points?
2
0
8
52 DAYS TO SAVE YOUR WHOLE BUSINESS:
Black friday is 52 days away.
We did an operators event where we talked about promo and discount strategies
here are some expanded thoughts and ideas to HELP YOU MAKE MONEY
serious ecom OPERATORS make it a must watch
(and subscribe laque)
Black friday is 52 days away.
We did an operators event where we talked about promo and discount strategies
here are some expanded thoughts and ideas to HELP YOU MAKE MONEY
serious ecom OPERATORS make it a must watch
(and subscribe laque)
15
4
69
but when it works, it really works
I see a lot of people trying stuff.
lots of those people ask me for help.
some of those people want money, some of them want me to fix all their problems
but if I have accomplished everything you are trying to build, and you ask me for advice, I hope you listen
even if that advice hurts to hear
4
1
94
I see a lot of people trying stuff.
lots of those people ask me for help.
some of those people want money, some of them want me to fix all their problems
but if I have accomplished everything you are trying to build, and you ask me for advice, I hope you listen
even if that advice hurts to hear
lots of those people ask me for help.
some of those people want money, some of them want me to fix all their problems
but if I have accomplished everything you are trying to build, and you ask me for advice, I hope you listen
even if that advice hurts to hear
33
1
213
Have you been sued in California for wire tapping, just for using a meta pixel?
Thousands of Ecom brands were getting shake down requests for nothing more than a conversion pixel.
Every settlement was $10,000-$50,000 bucks, right out of the pocket of small business.
I was s of today, that won’t ever happen again:
I thought this was the wrong reading of the law and wanted to do something about it.
My internal team worked with the eCommerce alliance.
They put time, money, and resources into changing this law.
I really didn’t do much.
But as a result of their hard work-
No one else will be sued for this ever again.
The work of the eCommerce alliance, backed by postscript, just saved the entire ecom industry probably 30 million dollars a year.
Huge shoutout to Gina from my team for getting this done.
Ridge could have just kept paying it.
But that’s how these things win.
Ecom brands are too fractured, everyone too cheap, everyone being crabs in a bucket.
It takes brands and great partners like postscript to work together to make the industry better.
I just saved your brand $25,000 bucks.
You can thank postscript for that.
Thousands of Ecom brands were getting shake down requests for nothing more than a conversion pixel.
Every settlement was $10,000-$50,000 bucks, right out of the pocket of small business.
I was s of today, that won’t ever happen again:
I thought this was the wrong reading of the law and wanted to do something about it.
My internal team worked with the eCommerce alliance.
They put time, money, and resources into changing this law.
I really didn’t do much.
But as a result of their hard work-
No one else will be sued for this ever again.
The work of the eCommerce alliance, backed by postscript, just saved the entire ecom industry probably 30 million dollars a year.
Huge shoutout to Gina from my team for getting this done.
Ridge could have just kept paying it.
But that’s how these things win.
Ecom brands are too fractured, everyone too cheap, everyone being crabs in a bucket.
It takes brands and great partners like postscript to work together to make the industry better.
I just saved your brand $25,000 bucks.
You can thank postscript for that.
145
42
1,054
everyone in fashion grew up wanting to be ralph lauren.
the next generation is growing up wanting to be Ronnie.
must listen up from the very talented @markbrazil
the next generation is growing up wanting to be Ronnie.
must listen up from the very talented @markbrazil
9
2
82
what if everything went right:
- obesity is cured, one shot and its done
- blue collar boom, average hard working americans are making fucking bank
- self driving cars are here and will save 10,000 lives a year (and lots of kids!)
- data centers are bringing their own water and actually get CHEAPER!
- world peace can happen at any moment
- everyone on earth is going to have a FREE* ai tutor, assistant, and worker
- ai wil let researchers super charge their work, we will cure horrible disease faster
- we are going to build a permanent base on the moon before 2030
- the dodgers are going to win ANOTHER world series
- ridge wallet will release some more amazing products this q4
everything is getting better, faster.
if you feel it isnt, that is on you.
people will be healthier, richer, with new ridge wallets and world peace.
it is all happening guys.
we made it.
- obesity is cured, one shot and its done
- blue collar boom, average hard working americans are making fucking bank
- self driving cars are here and will save 10,000 lives a year (and lots of kids!)
- data centers are bringing their own water and actually get CHEAPER!
- world peace can happen at any moment
- everyone on earth is going to have a FREE* ai tutor, assistant, and worker
- ai wil let researchers super charge their work, we will cure horrible disease faster
- we are going to build a permanent base on the moon before 2030
- the dodgers are going to win ANOTHER world series
- ridge wallet will release some more amazing products this q4
everything is getting better, faster.
if you feel it isnt, that is on you.
people will be healthier, richer, with new ridge wallets and world peace.
it is all happening guys.
we made it.
18
3
138
This is what an opus 5.5 output looks like.
2 prompts and it created a fully functioning, fun game.
It is a medieval zoo tycoon.
There is an economy.
You set prices for everything.
You build attractions.
You buy mythical beasts.
It has a full terrain builder.
You build
You need to keep the beasts happy and alive.
You need to hire staff, put the right food and water in the enclosures.
I would have totally paid for this as an iPhone app 2 years ago.
and it was made for like $30 in tokens.
Link below to play it.
HOSTED AND SHARED ON HQ!
The easiest way to turn Claude projects into multiplayer experiences.
2 prompts and it created a fully functioning, fun game.
It is a medieval zoo tycoon.
There is an economy.
You set prices for everything.
You build attractions.
You buy mythical beasts.
It has a full terrain builder.
You build
You need to keep the beasts happy and alive.
You need to hire staff, put the right food and water in the enclosures.
I would have totally paid for this as an iPhone app 2 years ago.
and it was made for like $30 in tokens.
Link below to play it.
HOSTED AND SHARED ON HQ!
The easiest way to turn Claude projects into multiplayer experiences.
opus 5.5.
one prompt, a fully functioning game.
that you can actually play.
wild times.
24
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@chrisabbenda @OwenMartinetti @SnoozyGummy @codyplof this is a mock up for our design from july 2025
You posted in october
You posted in october
1
0
1
@OwenMartinetti @SnoozyGummy @chrisabbenda @codyplof here is proof we worked on this before you posted
1
0
3
its now 2 weeks without AT&T internet.
Cant talk to a human.
Their system has no idea what is going on.
I keep getting random messages with random dates.
CANCEL YOUR LEGACY PROVIDERS.
GET A STARLINK ASAP
The legacy players are decaying in front of us.
Cant talk to a human.
Their system has no idea what is going on.
I keep getting random messages with random dates.
CANCEL YOUR LEGACY PROVIDERS.
GET A STARLINK ASAP
The legacy players are decaying in front of us.
Att WiFi will be down for over a week now.
I would be totally fucked without Starlink.
I couldn’t do my job.
This is your sign to buy a Starlink.
21
2
42
Richpanel just launched a new product line that I am excited about:
EXECUTIVE RECRUITING!
We are hiring a new director of CX, two weeks before q4
Told Amit about it and now he is PERSONALLY sourcing candidates
whole other level
gorgias would NEVER
EXECUTIVE RECRUITING!
We are hiring a new director of CX, two weeks before q4
Told Amit about it and now he is PERSONALLY sourcing candidates
whole other level
gorgias would NEVER
5
0
53
@pitdesi Ive had options all year. at one point they were down 70%
as a top 1% advertiser, it is just very obvious that meta will benefit from ai
as a top 1% advertiser, it is just very obvious that meta will benefit from ai
1
1
18