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For those who follow me, please also follow @CFEconomy, which I am president of. You can find all my activity there.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
Midterm exit polls show 66% of voters believe Trump's tariffs hurt the national economy.
Tariffs raise costs for consumers and businesses while undermining the Working Families Tax Cuts.
Congress should pursue tariff relief and protect pro-growth tax reform.
Tariffs raise costs for consumers and businesses while undermining the Working Families Tax Cuts.
Congress should pursue tariff relief and protect pro-growth tax reform.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
One thing neither side seems focused on is the deficit. Dems day 1 agenda adds roughly $5 trillion to the deficit over the coming decade.
x.com/teamhakeemhq/s…
x.com/teamhakeemhq/s…
Leader @HakeemJeffries announces Democrats’ agenda starting on Day One:
—Launch new oversight efforts to crack down on Trump’s corruption
—End Trump’s war of choice in Iran and lower gas prices
—Reverse Trump’s Medicaid cuts
—Reverse Trump’s SNAP cuts
—End the Trump tariffs to e ACA tax credits to lower health care costs
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
US tariffs are taxes paid by Americans. That $2000 refrigerator would be $1600 without the tariff, and that extra $400 is paid by the American consumer.
New tariffs made consumer purchases more expensive in an economy which already has unacceptably high inflation.
Zero out the tariffs on trade with any country with a reasonably free market economy. (South Korea, Japan, Germany, Canada, etc)
You’re welcome.
New tariffs made consumer purchases more expensive in an economy which already has unacceptably high inflation.
Zero out the tariffs on trade with any country with a reasonably free market economy. (South Korea, Japan, Germany, Canada, etc)
You’re welcome.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
Multiple studies estimate that repealing the tariffs in full would immediately save every American about $100 per month. It should be one of the first things the new Congress does.
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This is from my Virginia Obamacare plan choices.
Who is buying this plan? Comes out to $67,000 per year in premiums!
Ask me what the cheapest Carefirst plan costs.
Who is buying this plan? Comes out to $67,000 per year in premiums!
Ask me what the cheapest Carefirst plan costs.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
The country owes a debt of thanks to Speaker Mike Johnson for taking an impossible job and doing it well.
wsj.com/opinion/mike-j…
wsj.com/opinion/mike-j…
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Thanks to @SpeakerJohnson we have:
—a permanent set of personal and family business tax rates
—permanent small business tax relief
—permanent big death tax exemption
—permanent full expensing
—permanent HSA expansion
—permanent child tax credit expansion
—permanent AMT relief
—permanent international tax reform
—Green New Deal ended
—Obamacare reform
—permanent student loan reform
—Medicaid and SNAP work requirements and fraud protections
—Trump Accounts
—permanent school choice tax credit
—permanent end to IRS Venmo snooping and the IRS audit slush fund
Well done.
—a permanent set of personal and family business tax rates
—permanent small business tax relief
—permanent big death tax exemption
—permanent full expensing
—permanent HSA expansion
—permanent child tax credit expansion
—permanent AMT relief
—permanent international tax reform
—Green New Deal ended
—Obamacare reform
—permanent student loan reform
—Medicaid and SNAP work requirements and fraud protections
—Trump Accounts
—permanent school choice tax credit
—permanent end to IRS Venmo snooping and the IRS audit slush fund
Well done.
.@WSJ Editoral Board on @SpeakerJohnson's service to our nation:
"The country owes a debt to the Congressman from Louisiana for taking on a nearly impossible job, and the country is better for his influence."
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
For decades, stocks have delivered long-term gains, but workers cannot invest their Social Security taxes in personal retirement accounts.
Allowing workers to invest a portion in diversified funds could expand retirement wealth-building opportunities.
Read CFE's latest analysis.
Allowing workers to invest a portion in diversified funds could expand retirement wealth-building opportunities.
Read CFE's latest analysis.
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"Lame-duck Republican majorities could show their willingness to address Americans’ concerns by voting to repeal every tariff imposed in the past two years (or at least limit them to areas of true strategic importance).
"Such a gesture would be the start of an affordability me, and a step toward healing the GOP’s wounded reputation for sound economic stewardship."
"Such a gesture would be the start of an affordability me, and a step toward healing the GOP’s wounded reputation for sound economic stewardship."
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
Denial is always the first stage. Dems spent $58M on ads attacking tariffs in House races alone. That's 40 times what they spent in the 2018 midterms.
GDP was up 3.4 points this quarter while real wages are down. Tax cuts are delivering growth but tariffs are raising prices.
GDP was up 3.4 points this quarter while real wages are down. Tax cuts are delivering growth but tariffs are raising prices.
Here's the reason I don't but the "tariffs killed us" line. Yeah, Trump dropped from 47 to 40 on approval after Liberation day and stabilized there. Tariffs were at 37 percent approval.
In his first term, Trump's tax cuts started at 29 percent approval, and his popularity stayed stable at 40. 40 is the baseline of Trump/Republican approval rating in boom times, and in inflation. The tax cuts never went above water in Pew. So yeah, he might have gotten a thermostatic reaction this year based on economic policies, just as he did in 2018. When Trump fell after Liberation Day he fell to the exact same level he had been at when he was supposedly enacting True Reaganism (plus some tariffs) in his first term.
Trump's second term tax cuts are also underwater. Politico had them at 35 percent in October. The difference between 2018 and 2026 is that on top of this, Trump added a Middle East war that immediately raised gas prices and grocery prices without defending the war to the American people or getting their buy in. That's how you go from a 2018 rebuke to a Watergate level disaster.
Given what is reported in the Times last night about the internal polling showing the electoral disaster exactly tracking with hostilities, and the internal polling showing that MAGA 2024 voters who didn't show up in 2026 cited the war first, I can't believe we are having this debate at all anymore.
But we have to go through this ridiculous "Iran war has never really been tried." "Do the incredibly unpopular thing harder." and "We were stabbed in the back by the communist wreckers" b.s.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
Tariffs from the Trump administration will increase taxes by an average of $820 per US household in 2026, according to our estimates.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
The Meaning of the 2026 Election - Voters wanted affordability. Republicans gave them tariffs and unelectable candidates. @GroverNorquist @taxreformer spectator.org/the-meaning-of…
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
Vice President Vance is mistaken. The reason we Republicans lost yesterday is not just the war in Iran. Yes, the resulting higher fuel prices contributed to the inflation that infuriated Americans who were promised lower prices by this administration. But the war is not the only cause. Arbitrary and capricious tariffs directly raised costs for all American consumers. Lower income Americans can least afford them. Many voted for Democrats yesterday.
Tariffs should be a central part, but only part, of the “honest conversation” VP Vance wants Republicans to have about the future of our party. For instance, we all seem to oppose government-owned grocery stores. But are we ok with government ownership of semiconductors companies and rare earth miners? We oppose rent controls. But do we support price controls on medicines and credit cards?
The bigger question is does the Republican party now agree with the left that we need a large, powerful central government to run the economy, allocate capital and control prices? Or, do we believe that free men and women should be able to engage in commerce as they see fit and that a free enterprise system will create a higher standard of living and the greatest opportunities for the most people as it always has?
Let’s have an “honest conversation.”
Tariffs should be a central part, but only part, of the “honest conversation” VP Vance wants Republicans to have about the future of our party. For instance, we all seem to oppose government-owned grocery stores. But are we ok with government ownership of semiconductors companies and rare earth miners? We oppose rent controls. But do we support price controls on medicines and credit cards?
The bigger question is does the Republican party now agree with the left that we need a large, powerful central government to run the economy, allocate capital and control prices? Or, do we believe that free men and women should be able to engage in commerce as they see fit and that a free enterprise system will create a higher standard of living and the greatest opportunities for the most people as it always has?
Let’s have an “honest conversation.”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
This same poll (the AP 2026 Voter Poll) has granular data in 45 states.
Every state polled had more voters say tariffs hurt their local economy than helped, by a minimum gap of 19 pts and a median gap of 46 pts.
Swing states also had large gaps (TX+44, OH+47, MI+50, IA+47).
Every state polled had more voters say tariffs hurt their local economy than helped, by a minimum gap of 19 pts and a median gap of 46 pts.
Swing states also had large gaps (TX+44, OH+47, MI+50, IA+47).
Important exit poll finding from NBC: the vast majority of voters believe tariffs hurt the national economy and their local economy.
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
Two things can be true:
A)the Iran war was a disaster of epic proportions and hurt the GOP
B)The real cause of the free fall of popularity predated it and were the Trump/Vance taxes on American businesses, consumers and manufacturers
The exit polls are very very clear about this
A)the Iran war was a disaster of epic proportions and hurt the GOP
B)The real cause of the free fall of popularity predated it and were the Trump/Vance taxes on American businesses, consumers and manufacturers
The exit polls are very very clear about this
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Ryan Ellis retweeted
Tariffs are taxes.
Tariffs are regressive taxes.
Tariffs are distortionary, regressive taxes.
Tariffs are distortionary, regressive taxes that raise prices for US businesses and consumers.
Tariffs are regressive taxes.
Tariffs are distortionary, regressive taxes.
Tariffs are distortionary, regressive taxes that raise prices for US businesses and consumers.
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